New York Times Statistician Sets Odds on Illinois Congressional Districts, Sees Two District Pickup for GOP

A photo of the New York Times interactive congressional district map.

Here’s a map with a link to all 435 congressional districts. Click on a district and you will see what odds statistician Nate Silver gives each candidate for victory.

Let’s look at those in Northern and Central Illinois.

McHenry County first.

Don Manzullo is giving a 100% chance of winning reelection over George Gaulrapp. The predicted result is 65% to 33%.

In the 8th congressional district, incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean is given a 96.6% of beating Republican Joe Walsh and Green Bill Scheurer. Silver thinks the vote will be 55% to 42%. Presumably, he thinks Scheurer will get 3%.

In the 14th District, which starts at the McHenry-Kane County line and goes south, Silver gives Randy Hultgren a 62.6% chance of unseating incumbent Democrat Bill Foster. The final percentages will be 50-48, according to his computer model.

In the North Shore district Mark Kirk is vacating to run for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Dan Seals has a 52.7% chance of winning. The vote total is projected to be 49% to 49%.

In the 17th District, south of Don Manzullo’s, one of the most gerrymandered in Illinois, Silver thinks incumbent Democrat Phil Hare has a 73,4% chance of victory. The vote total will be 52% for Hare to 43% for Bobby Schilling, his projections goes.

Republican challenger Adam Kinzinger is estimated to have an 87.5% chance of capturing the 11th District from incumbent Debbie Halvorson. The tally will be 53% to 45%, Silver projects.


Comments

New York Times Statistician Sets Odds on Illinois Congressional Districts, Sees Two District Pickup for GOP — 3 Comments

  1. The true problem is the voters.

    A large percentage of the public believe their party’s candidates are flying chocolate rainbow unicorns, and the other party’s candidates are poisonous mother-beating, baby-eating bears.

    Rarely, if ever is someone elected based upon merit.

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