There is a subtle way to skew polling numbers. Especially when polls in the last month of various races are of likely voters as compared to registered voters.
The technique centers around these basic facts:
- The highest voter turnout for a midterm election since 1960 was when it hit 48.4 percent in 1966.
- In 2006 it was 37.1 %
- In 2002 it was 37.0 %
The turnout info was found here.
What some pollsters recently did for certain polls was to make the cut off for “likely voters” such that it excluded only 6 percent of registered voters, for example.
This skews the results because you are sampling far more registered Democrats and Democrat leaning independents. And plenty of people who are really not going to vote.
Newspapers with liberal leaning editors I suspect also allow their polls to be structured like this.
I suspect that you can’t reliably predict turnout for this election based on historical numbers for turnout.
Why? I have never seen an electorate so stirred up and eager to say “We’re not going to take this nonsense anymore.”
I think we will see a normal backlash from a majority of people who will take the time to vote.
Liberal journalists and commentators call this “anger.
I think it’s more likely disgust.
It is a normal reaction to yell, “Stop!” when your child, children or family members are about to permanently injured.
Or put in debt hole they will have a very hard time climbing out of.
It is a normal reaction to do something about the people who caused the problem and threaten to take even more money out of your family’s wallet.