New York Times 538 Blogger Admits Joe Walsh Won

Joe Walsh (Photo credit: Ryan Provenzano)

It’s almost a month after the November 2nd election and blogger Nate Silver has finally gotten around to writing about 8th District Republican Joe Walsh’s victory over three-term Democrat Melissa Bean.

Silver, whose blog “Five Thirty Eight” projected odds of victory for all congressional seats, was spectacularly wrong on Illinois 8th Congressional District.

Despite two public polls by WeAskAmerica showing Walsh and Bean within the margin of error, on election day, Silver was giving Bean an 88% chance of re-election.

Nate Silver gave Melissa Bean an 89% chance of winning the day of the election.

No mention of that massive miscue in today’s snippet about the contest:

“Illinois 8: After absentee and provisional ballots were counted, Melissa Bean, the Democratic incumbent, still trailed Republican Joe Walsh by about 300 votes. Ms. Bean admitted defeat, and Mr. Walsh became another tea-party backed candidate to become a tea-party backed representative.”

I have not seen an explanation of why Silver miscalled the races he did.


New York Times 538 Blogger Admits Joe Walsh Won — 1 Comment

  1. Only two people would expect someone to be able to accurately project the winner of every congressional race in the country, an imbecile and a fringe lunatic with a political axe to grind.

    Just which one are you?

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