2008 Republican primary votes. Click to enlarge.
There are four incumbents in McHenry County Board District 6, as there are in all districts.
Since everyone is up or election after reapportionment, there are four vacancies.
District 6 of the McHenry County Board's 2012-20 map.
One incumbent, Randy Donley of Union, who got by far and away the most votes four years ago, announced his retirement pretty early.
So with probably the best known and most popular incumbent not to be on the ballot, all sorts of people decided to run.
As of the close of petition filing Monday at 5 PM, eleven people had filed, including Donley.
Six filed in a tie at 8 AM on the first day possible:
- Diane Evertsen
- Shawn Green
- David LaGue
- Mary McCann
- Ersel Schuster
- Rachel Smith
There are three places on a ballot that is as long as this one that add extra votes to one’s total.
First place is worth about an extra 10%, second place and last place get a 5% bonus. I actually read a study that showed that in a municipal election when I was attending grad school at the University of Michigan.
The first and second place ballot advantages will be decided by lottery.
Last place went to Corey Brackmann. He filed last.
Worst place is next to last, according to what I remember from the study. Michael Stanard got that slot.
The filing period ended at 5 PM. I was there from 4-5 and there was no “fight” for last place. After looking at all the candidates who filed, I find that strange.
The three others running, all of whom will be in the bottom middle of the ballot, are
- Michele Aavang
- J. Vincent Ranzino
- Randall Donley
So, who’s going to win?
Here's how the Republican primary votes for County Board broke in 2010. Click to enlarge.
The best guidance is contained in the canvass reports from the 2008 and 2010 GOP primary elections.
Donley was way in front in 2008 and McCann had a substantial lead in 2010.
There’s not really much reason to believe their popularity had diminished.
That means that Ersel Schuster and Diane Evertsen, the two who placed second in 2008 and 2010, respectively, will probably be the targets of incumbents.
Each person could cast two votes.
Next year, because there are four vacancies, everyone gets four votes.
10,564 votes were cast in the presidential year of 2008.
8,942 in the non-presidential year of 2010.
In both years various candidates urged supporters not to cast all of their votes so opponents wouldn’t win with a 2nd choice vote.
That resulted in and under votes of 2,230 in 2008 and of 2,280 votes not cast in 2010.
What will it take to win?
Give us your best guess in the comment section below.
Some Pros: Donley, Green, and McCann have the most name recognition.
Green, Schuster, and Evertsen seem to be solid conservatives.
Donley, McCann, Evertsen, and Schuster are incumbents (could be in the “con” column for many people!)
Evertsen and Donley have a lot of money to spend.
Some Cons: Evertsen and Schuster are tied in with Linda Moore. Green resigned from the Board of Ed before his term was over. A Google search of Ranzino reveals some very troubling stuff from about a year ago. VERY troubling. McCann, Brackmann, Aavang, and Ranzino donate money to Democrat political campaigns.
My early money is on Donley, Green, McCann, and Evertsen to win the GOP primary.