Dave McSweeney’s Poll Puts Him at 47% with 40% Undecided, Gaffney 9%, Rowe 4%

A press release from State Rep. candidate David McSweeney about a survey he just took:

Subject: Survey results

Kent Gaffney, Dave McSweeney and Danielle Rowe at the Young Repubilcans Forum.

The following are results from a survey among N=301 Republican primary voters in Illinois House District 52. This survey was conducted February 9-11, 2012. The margin of error to the results is +5.7% at the .95 test level.

Poll results show David McSweeney has nearly universal name awareness and a strong positive image rating. Nine in ten (91%) respondents indicate they have heard the name David McSweeney and 43% have a positive impression of him. Additionally, McSweeney’s name awareness and positive image ratings are much higher than his opponents’ ratings.

The name awareness and image ratings among all candidates are as follows:

  • McSweeney: 43% positive, 7% negative, 40% no opinion, and 9% never heard of
  • Gaffney: 15% positive, 3% negative, 47% no opinion, and 36% never heard of
  • Rowe: 3% positive, 3% negative, 31% no opinion, and 62% never heard of

As a result of relatively high name awareness and positive image, McSweeney has a strong lead on the ballot.

Nearly half of respondents (47%) indicate they would vote for McSweeney if the election were held today, while 9% would vote for Gaffney and 4% would vote for Rowe.

Two in five voters (40%) are still undecided.

Five in six respondents (84%) indicate they will definitely vote in the upcoming Republican primary election while the other 16% indicate they might vote. McSweeney earns 49% among those who will definitely vote and he enjoys above average support (54%) among “hard Rs” (voters who voted in all three of the last three GOP primary elections).

MATT GAMBLE
Baselice & Associates, Inc.

= = = = =

Let me put the hard R’s survey results so that you can read it better:

  • McSweeney – 47%
  • Gaffney – 9%
  • Rowe – 4%

Comments

Dave McSweeney’s Poll Puts Him at 47% with 40% Undecided, Gaffney 9%, Rowe 4% — 8 Comments

  1. Word is leaking in from people called that this was a fairly leading poll to favor McSweeney.

    Why not release the entire poll with the questions asked to McHenry blog or other media sources?

    Cal, if you are going to print the results of the poll I think it would be good to ask for the whole thing.

  2. First off, of course McSweeney has a huge lead in the poll his campaign is paying for – consultants know who’s paying the bills.

    These numbers don’t make sense.

    Please explain to me how he can be polling at 47% when his favorability rating is only 43%?

    The Illinois Manufacturers Association poll from a week ago showed McSweeney at 30%, Gaffney at 9%, Rowe at 4%.

    There is absolutely no chance that McSweeney gained 17% while his opponents stayed at the same level with that many undecideds out there.

    By the way, if anyone sent me 15 pieces of mail I would go out of my way NOT to vote for them. That’s just plain arrogant.

    Backlash is coming soon.

  3. Strattons Ghost, since your running Gaffney’s I’m sure the full poll with cross tabs would be very helpful.

    With 9%, I think you have most of the government workers votes locked up, but that won’t get you a majority in a Republican primary.

    Go back to your state job.

  4. Tipsy,

    Pretty condesending post for a guy assisting on a campaign that has to invent support though a BS poll. McSweeney is touting these great numbers.

    Why not release the data as to how these numbers were arrived at?

    If it was an honest poll and McSweeney truly had this lead he would have released everything.

    Even a hack like you would advise him to release the data.

  5. I guess everyone should run polls to their mailing list instead of the entire anticipated voter list. Hard R’s make up less than half of a presidential year voting population in this Republican Primary.

    Maybe Rowe should only poll tea party voters and Gaffney should only poll elected Republicans in McHenry County.

    I never liked it when people put stock into polls produced by campaigns about how good they are doing, usually it is done to divert attention away from something they are afraid of…like a shocking lack of visibility in the district.

  6. I hope that Ms. Rowe will win.

    She’s the only candidate, in that race, who has been active, in conservative causes, for at least the past two years.

    I’m the vice-chairman of the Illinois Center Right Coalition, a conservative, statewide group that was founded in 2003.

    I’m glad that the ICRC endorsed her.

  7. I have to agree with Phil Collins. I’m relatively new to the area but nevertheless, in the past 3 years I have become very active politically in support of conservative candidates. The TEA Party movement is strong in the region…as evidenced by the help it provided in electing 3 new Republican Congressmen.

    Ms. Danielle Rowe was everywhere, doing whatever she could, in order to help get our country and state moving in the right direction again…by supporting and doing volunteer work, for true conservative candidates.

    Danielle Rowe is part of a new groundswell of dedicated social/fiscal conservative community activists, from all walks of life…who have decided to help restore some sanity to the sorry condition our state is in.

    I am glad that Mr. Dave McSweeney decided to get involved again, after losing to Melissa Bean a couple of elections ago…it would have helped him to be more visible during the 2010 campaign season.

    In any event, I think we should all be happy that a couple of real “conservatives” are running in the 52nd State Representative District!

  8. One has to wonder why Mr. McSweeney is so panicked to win a State Rep. seat after losing in a U.S. Congressional race that he has already spent almost $200,000.00 to win a primary…… Seems quite desperate.

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