Poll Shows McConnaughay with Large Lead over Surges

Karen McConnaughay

Cliff Surges

63%-37% was what I learned from the Illinois Manufacturers Association today.

I figure that the poll taken last night, reported on here, was done on their behalf.

All that was asked was whether the person called would vote for McConnaughay or Surges and the person’s gender, undoubtedly for balancing purposes.


Poll Shows McConnaughay with Large Lead over Surges — 7 Comments

  1. Cal,

    Did you ask the old IMA guy/s why he may not be the most subjective polling expert out there? That perhaps he may have a little conflict of INTEREST?

    Don’t believe those numbers folks. The IMA wants Ms. McConnaughay back in the cozy warm nest again it may appear.

    Someone else has a poll that has it dead even. Who can you believe?

  2. Interesting.

    If this poll in the 33rd senate district as well as the IMA poll in the 52nd House district hold true on Tuesday, there is definitely a correlation with the quantity of direct-mailings and voter preference.

    Goes to show, direct mailing works.

    Both Karen McConnaughay and David McSweeney have swamped the voters’ mailboxes since late January (in McSweeney’s case, since last fall).

    Good to know in other races, and the number of effective direct mail pieces will make a difference.

    We’ll find out for certain on Tuesday.

  3. It is a shame that the amount of money you have to spend makes the difference. I think we miss out on a lot of good candidates because of that.

  4. Storm: Do you think it’s the mailings or could it be something else?

    I think most people voting in these races are less informed and tend to lean on newspaper endorsements.

    That’s right or wrong, but I think that is what happens. (Of course, then the mailings emphasize said endorsements).

    I just think many voters are ill-informed and vote on things like that or how many signs has up.

    I’d appreciate thoughts on this.

  5. Paul, the only other “something else” that would sway results in the election is a candidate’s grassroots network of support.

    How many sets of legs are out pounding the pavement going door-to-door, and have been doing this consistently since the first of the year to now, the last weekend prior to the election.

    If either McConnaughay or McSweeney can honestly say they’ve had volunteers for their race who are focusing primarily on their race, then the results of the grassroots voter support could be in the polls.

    In the case of McConnaughay, I have not seen the kind of dedication by grassroots volunteers.

    Her campaign appears to be top-heavy, with high-profile endorsements from the newspapers, conservative groups and other establishment figures, including the mayors/village presidents of all municipalities in the district.

    Surges’ grassroots network has come to my front door at least twice with materials, with one dedicated volunteer walking door-to-door in a snowstorm in February.

    Since I do not live in the 52nd House district, I cannot assess the door-to-door activity by volunteers of either McSweeney, Gaffney or Rowe.

    I do not take much stock that the newspapers are swaying the voters as these polls would indicate, since McSweeney has only been endorsed by 1 newspaper (Northwest Herald), while Gaffney has been endorsed by the Tribune and Daily Herald.

    It’s the ability of the candidates who win these endorsements, to communicate with the voters, and the more direct mailers with this kind of information, the endorsements begin to become known.

    Hope this helps.

  6. I would not put any stock in a poll done by an organization that has endorsed McConnaughay, given her campaign loads of cash, and conducts the poll with no option for undecided and puts Karen’s name first every time.

    Clearly a poll meant to push the campaign of the candidate they endorsed.

    Other, actual real scientific polls, have this race much closer.

  7. The thrice married McConnaughay is intimately familiar with Mr. Baise of the IMA.

    Disregard the poll results.

    Will she vote for Newt, who mirrors her personal values? Or Romney who mirrors her moderate tendencies?

    Hopefully she will have a conversion experience and vote for Rick Santorum, the only true social and fiscal conservative in the race.

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