Political analyst Russ Stewart writes a weekly column that is usually packed full of numbers.
The one almost four weeks ago is no exception.
He entitles it,
“CINDERELLA” DUCKWORTH IS NOT CINCH TO BEAT WALSH
The guts are below, although there is much in the article of interest.
Russ Stewart
“Here’s a shocker: In the March 20 primary in the 8th U.S. House District, the unopposed Walsh got 34,839 votes, while Duckworth, who was opposed by Raja Krishnamoorthi, got 17,091 votes — less than half of Walsh’s vote.
“Even the combined 25,802 Duckworth-Krishnamoorthi vote was only three-quarters of Walsh’s. Where’s the vaunted Duckworth juggernaut?
“Where’s the ‘Democratic’ district?”
Stewart concludes that the race depends on how well Barack Obama does in the district.
Trying to anticipate the general based on the anemic turn out of the primary elections is at best a flawed analysis.
Mr. Stewart didn’t actually crunch numbers, he just looked at raw totals.
Had he looked at the general election trend numbers, especially the persuadability of both the core precincts in the new 8th and some of the outlying precincts, he would have to conclude that Walsh is in for a very uphill battle.
And Inish is absolutely correct.
If you base predictions for the general election on primary turnout comparisons, you’re general election prediction is worth less than the coin someone tosses to arrive at an accurate prediction.
More importantly, Walsh’s touting of these numbers is a claim of strength where it doesn’t exist and when it doesn’t matter.
In other words, he’s betraying doubt in his own strength.
I can’t wait for Walsh to ask Duckworth how she would have voted in the Voting Rights Act bills, the Tea-Pot Dome scandals and on the confirmation of the Louisiana Purchase.
Silly debate tactic from a less than effective Congressman.
Duckworth is a a typical Democrat money grabber.
Don’t need another Obama “THUG”
Just like she lost against Roskam she’ll lose against Walsh.