As I was driving to a sleep apnea study in Algonquin last night shortly after the polls closed in Wisconsin, I heard that exist polls had Scott Walker and Tom Barrett tied.
Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Sentinel-Journal noticed and predicted the election would not be called until late in the night, as did the station I was listening to.
I discovered that Seattle PI reported last night,
“A CNN exit poll had Walker and Barrett tied at 50 percent apiece.”
But when I got to the Centegra facility in Algonquin, Fox News was predicting Scott Walker to have won.
Surprised, I switched to CNN.
Same prediction there.
I concluded that the exit polls must have been wrong…by a lot.
Tonight I tried to find that “Walker and Barrett are tied” statistic, but could not.
I did find this breakdown of exit polling that has a CNN heading:
Notice the information about the tie race can’t be found.
Those offering hope to President Obama do not refer to the head-to-head results.
- Here’s one from Ronald Brownstein, writing in the National Journal.
- In the same publication here’s another by Jill Lawrence. She manages to focus on the 7-point lead that Obama has over Romney, but not the approximately 7-point mistake in the gubernatorial exit poll result.
- Nothing in the Associated Press story about there being a tie in the exit poll. The closest the story came was a description that the voters were “passionately divided.”
My question is why this finding:
“Results gave President Obama a 54-42 percent lead over Republican nominee-in-waiting Willard “Mitt” Romney.”
is more significant than the demonstrably false apparent and unposted CNN exit poll 50-50 finding in the Walker-Barrett contest?