National media love to cite the web site Five Thirty Eight.
Today, 538 is projecting the Peter Roskam-Sean Casten as a toss-up.
Since Friday, however, 538 has radically changed its prediction in the Randy Hultgren-Lauren Underwood contest.
The popular vote predictions are very close for both candidates:
When Joe Walsh beat Melissa Bean, 538 gave Bean an 88% chance of re-election.