Oberweis Releases End of July-Early August Survey Results Very Favorable to His Campaign, Margin of Error 6.9%

From congressional candidate Jim Oberweis:

Survey Summary: The Republican Primary Election – Jim Oberweis has an overwhelming lead.

Jim Oberweis

The results of our recently completed survey in Illinois’ 14th

Congressional District show that Jim Oberweis is in a very strong position to win the Republican Primary election for U.S. Congress.

The majority of voters, 56%, say they would vote for Oberweis, while only 8% say they would vote for Sue Rezin, followed by 4% for Ted Gradel, with one-third of voters, 33%, undecided.

The majority of Republican primary voters in Illinois 14 are favorable to Jim Oberweis, 52%, with 18% unfavorable.

Jim is even more popular among conservatives who dominate the Republican primary.

Sue Rezin, who is not from the district, is virtually unknown among Republican primary voters with two-thirds, 67%, who have never heard of her, only 8% are favorable towards her, 6% are unfavorable, and 20% have no opinion.

It will take north of a million dollars to get Rezin known.

Survey Summary: The General Election – Democratic Congresswoman Lauren Underwood is vulnerable and Jim Oberweis is the best Republican to defeat her.

[Oberweis writes there were 300 in the General Election sample.]

Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood is vulnerable in her bid for re-election in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District.

Underwood falls below the 50% threshold of a safe incumbent on her opinion rating, job approval and the ballot for Congress.

The majority of voters are not committed to Underwood.

This is a very bad sign for an incumbent.

After a series of issue message questions, Lauren Underwood collapses.

Loren Underwood

Jim Oberweis leads on the informed ballot for U.S. Congress, 51% to 37%, with a net gain of 13-points, while Lauren Underwood drops 10-points.

This means that the voters of Underwood’s district have no idea how she is voting in Washington.

Once these voters are told about the Congresswoman’s record, she falls from a 9-point lead to trailing by 14-points—a 23-point collapse.


Jim Oberweis is the clear frontrunner in the Republican Primary in Illinois Congressional District 14 with the highest and most favorable name recognition of a Republican candidate in the district.

Jim Oberweis can work to secure the nomination quickly to begin the campaign against Underwood.

Jim Oberweis’ voting record in the State Senate will propel him to victory in the general election as voters are drawn to his fiscally conservative record and values.

With the proper resources, Jim Oberweis can unseat Lauren Underwood and win back a Congressional seat that should not be occupied by a progressive liberal who is in lock-step with the radical left and shares the same extreme agenda as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.

Methodology: Republican Primary

This poll of 200 likely Republican Primary election voters in Illinois Congressional District 14, was conducted from July 30th through August 4th, 2019. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers.

Interview selection was random within predetermined election units.

71 interviews were completed on cell- phones.

These samples were then combined and structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a Republican Primary election.

This poll of 200 likely Republican Primary election voters in Illinois Congressional District 14, has an accuracy of +/- 6.9% at a 95% confidence interval.


Oberweis Releases End of July-Early August Survey Results Very Favorable to His Campaign, Margin of Error 6.9% — 5 Comments


    End of July? Early August? A Sample Size of 200? Margin of Error nearly 7%? No Cross-Tabs?

    A very dated poll, pre-Catalina Lauf, and Sue Rezin is at 8% within 2 weeks after announcing her candidacy? Ahead of Ted Gradel who announced in late April? And again, before Catalina Lauf entered the race by nearly 3 weeks?

    And a very big question: Why hasn’t Oberweis released a later poll, but a very dated one? Could Catalina Lauf’s entry be the reason?

    With this news, I am having flashbacks to the fall of 1995, when the then-Lieutenant Governor Bob Kustra, in the 5-6 months prior to the March U.S. Senate Republican primary, led then-State Representative Al Salvi with a 40% showing in a poll, and Salvi was only at 3%. In that 5-candidate U.S. Senate primary for the open Senate seat, remember who won the nomination? It was 3% in-late-1995 Al Salvi, who didn’t even get to 10% until after the first of the year in 1996.

    While the poll itself is a valid, if not dated, poll, it’s a very small sample size and a very high margin-of-error. And without cross-tabs, it’s a poll to hardly believe.

    I’ve cut & pasted portions of a comment I wrote last night, comparing the IL-14 Republican congressional primary to the Democratic presidential primary field. Given this poll’s result, it’s an even more valid comparison Here’s what I wrote:

    “She [Rezin] also said back in July she would formally do a full launch of her campaign in October.

    It’s her’s, and her campaign’s plan, and we’ll all see how it goes.

    I’m sure they’ve been concentrating on fundraising, and we’ll see the fruit of their labor in less then a month.

    Given her track record in elections going back to 2010, she knows what she’s doing. [For someone who hasn’t formally rolled-out her campaign, the fact she polled at 8% is pretty significant, given the poll was taken 2-4 weeks after she announced her candidacy]

    Oberweis has a bit of a Joe Biden presence in the IL-14 race, and not just because he is close in age (nearly 3 1/2 years) with the current Democratic presidential frontrunner. [And given this polling, now it shows in the polls]
    He’s run so many times for Congress (both House and Senate) as well as for governor political types know his name, apart from his businesses.
    [and I think that explains his polling on this month-and-a-half old survey]

    So which of the other IL-14 candidates will step-up and be the Elizabeth Warren-type presence, and in particular, detailed legislative policy positions? Ted Gradel? Sue Rezin? Catalina Lauf?

    If Oberweis’ fundraising next month far exceeds all of his opponents, than, for lack of credible polling, that will make him the frontrunner. [Put another way, his fundraising for 3rd quarter needs to match this polling data]

    If 2nd quarter fundraising results is an indication, that won’t happen.

    In addition to Gradel, I anticipate Rezin and Lauf to have credible fundraising results.

    Maybe not to overtake Oberweis and Gradel moneywise, but definitely enough to be able to compete in the primary.

    Remember, Underwood stated in her summer interview she did not raise more than $350,000 for the 7-way Democratic primary, and around 50,000-some votes were cast in 2018 in the IL-14 Democratic primary.

    Contrast, a little over 60,000 Republican ballots were cast, and if as many as four candidates can afford to do significant media buys in a 7-way race, it will take more than $350K to win next year in the primary.

    Oberweis can afford it, and he’s pledged up to $1M to match contributions, which he’s spent $200K already through June 30.

    But remember something about Oberweis, he won his U.S. Senate primary in 2014 by outraising his most credible opponent by nearly 2-1.

    Oberweis’ most impressive primary win was in 2008 for IL-14, when he beat a very credible opponent in Chris Lauzen, but he had the entire Denny Hastert organization supporting his candidacy then.

    He won’t have that this time.

    I’ll give Oberweis credit, looks like here in mid-September, he has the most established ground game, as displayed on September 8, when his volunteers covered two events (Johnsburg, Burlington) simultaneously.

    Like money, many enthusiastic volunteers are crucial to success, and both components reflect his message, which for now, appears to be resonating.

    Well, Oberweis is releasing this polling data now, ahead of the September 30 fundraising deadline for the 3rd quarter. Now he’s under pressure to have his fundraising for the 3rd quarter match his polling, and with Catalina Lauf not in the polling with Sue Rezin in 2nd, could Rezin, or Ted Gradel, who coincidentally like Al Salvi was a Notre Dame graduate, knock Oberweis from his polling frontrunner perch?

    We’ll know better in mid-October.

  2. What did I tell you? Milking a cow in a county fair pays off. Stay tuned…tic, tock, tic, tock, tic, tock, moooooooooooooooooooooo…

  3. Underwood will beat the milkman and the inexperienced Latina princess handily.

  4. Heinrich, what makes you so sure?

    Are you some Democrat election savant?

    You and No Angel are up late & early posting your drivel.

    Must be a lonely life you people lead

  5. Heinrich lives around McHenry.

    He’s a complete moron and democratic partry fool.

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