Continuing the series about Jim Oberweis begun in Part 1, opportunities of Oberweis’ 2020 congressional candidacy continues with analytics.

As begun in Part 1, Oberweis has run for elective office in 7 of the last 9 election cycles from 2002 through 2018. The year 2020 will be his 8th run for public office, so let’s review the record in the Republican primaries & general elections per election cycles:

• 2002 U.S. Senate Lost in Primary in a 3-candidate field
• 2004 U.S. Senate Lost in Primary in an 8-candidate field
• 2006 Governor Lost in Primary in a 5-candidate field
• 2008 Congress 14th district
  • Won primaries for both special and general election on same day in early February
    • Special in head-to-head
    • General in 3-candidate field
  • Lost Special Election (March) to Bill Foster
  • Lost General Election to Bill Foster
• 2012 State Senate
  • Won primary in 3-candidate field
  • Won general
• 2014 U.S. Senate
  • Won primary in 3-candidate field
  • Lost General to Dick Durbin
• 2016 State Senate Won General after Unopposed in Primary

With those top-level analytics in mind, here is “The Buzz” portion of Thursday’s POLITICO Illinois Playbook, headline viewed in Part 1:

Focusing on what’s circled in red, four things stand out:

• Arrogance, entitlement mentality bordering on cockiness of Oberweis’ campaign spokesman
  • All Oberweis has to do is move to Florida & he’d win the 19th district seat
  • “…good shape to win the [Illinois] primary…”
• Oberweis’ campaign actually believes the highly questionable polling done in late July and early August, but executive summary released in September with feedback published in McHenry County Blog
• Oberweis’ campaign in 2019 reminds me of his 2008 campaign prior to his March special general election loss to Bill Foster
• POLITICO‘s Shia Kapos having to inject reality noting the large primary field and naming 5 of Oberweis’ 7 primary opponents (the following day, Kapos did write about Jerry Evans’ entry into the race)

So look at the analytics again at the top of the article and which primary fields best match 2020?

Yes, 2004 and 2006, in spite of those primaries being statewide and hundreds of thousands of Republican primary voters, the 2020 14th district congressional primary matches 2004 and 2006 because:

• 2004: 8-candidate primary field with 4 viable candidates
• 2006: 5-candidate primary field with 4 viable candidates

And Oberweis finished 2nd in both races. The primary winners in both of those races only received a plurality of less than 40% of the primary vote. Oberweis finished down 12 percentage points in 2004 and nearly 6.5 percentage points in 2006.

Oberweis has never won a primary in a multi-candidate (4 or more) field with multiple viable candidates.

In the 14th district last year and with a hotly contested Republican gubernatorial primary, a little over 60,000 ballots were cast, and this includes primary voters who didn’t cast a vote in the uncontested congressional primary.

If the Democratic presidential nomination is still undecided by March, more voters in the 14th district may cast Democratic ballots, bringing that 60,000 Republican ballots-count down for 2020. But using 60,000 as the expected Republican ballot count and 40% plurality, no candidate may even receive 24,000 votes.

In the face of analytics, anyone who thinks Oberweis or anyone else has the nomination locked-up is very premature at this point.

Endorsements

Very briefly, we’re going to touch upon a couple of Oberweis’ endorsements.

As Evelyn Sanguinetti’s now defunct campaign in the 6th district showed, endorsements do not guarantee fundraising support. But 2 of Oberweis’ high profile McHenry County area endorsements reveal how potentially soft Oberweis’ support is:

• Chuck Wheeler, McHenry County Board member and vice chairman of the McHenry County Republican Party
  • Endorsement announced in late June through press release
  • According to FEC disbursements report, Wheeler is on Oberweis’ campaign payroll
    • $600 in both July and August for “campaign work”
    • $712.37 in September for “staff”
• State Representative Allen Skillicorn
  • Endorsement announced in early September through press release
  • Skillicorn’s Twitter activity from September 1 forward:
    • # of Tweets with images of Oberweis or endorsement: 0
    • # of Tweets with image of competitor Catalina Lauf: 3
      • 9/15: Selfie with Lauf saying “Young Republicans like @CatalinaLauf are proof that the conservative movement has a future!”
      • 10/13: Group shot with Skillicorn, Lauf, 6th district congressional candidate Jeanne Ives and U.S. Senate candidate Peggy Hubbard at DuKane A.B.A.T.E. event in Maple Park
      • 10/14: Retweet of DuKane A.B.A.T.E. president with comments who sent two images of himself, one with Lauf, the other with Ives
    • No tweets from Oberweis fundraiser on 10/25 with Senator Marco Rubio

If Oberweis’ polling reflects the soft support of Skillicorn or the reimbursed support of Wheeler, then more reason not to believe the questionable polling Oberweis’ campaign revealed last month.

Conclusion

Jim Oberweis is a fragile frontrunner due to:

• Electability
  • Age, the “old white guy” as one high dollar donor described him as he gave a maximum contribution to a competitor
  • Career politician with 18 years of running for office 8 times and only winning twice, and serving 2 terms as a state senator
  • Could be seen as out-of-touch with district given multiple home ownership and wife living and voting in another state
• Analytics
  • Oberweis has never won a primary with 4 or more candidates and 4 or more viable candidates
  • Highly questionable polling Oberweis’ campaign trying to convince voters the primary campaign is over
  • Entitlement/arrogance/cockiness of campaign reminiscent of failed 2008 congressional campaigns
• Support soft
  • Two high profile endorsements sending mixed messages
  • Any polling done this early reflects name ID only

Even without hitting on issues or his accomplishments in the state senate, Oberweis’ congressional bid has many components discerning voters will want to determine, and compare with the other viable candidates in the race.

And there is plenty of time between now and March 17.