From Jeanne for Congress Campaign:
Ives Opens Up a Lead on Casten Heading into Election Year
December 23, 2019 – An Ogden & Fry poll conducted on December 17 shows Jeanne Ives leading incumbent Congressman Sean Casten in Illinois’ 6th Congressional District. The poll was conducted district wide regarding political preferences of candidates with 575 respondents.
Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely 2020 General Election voters. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.17% at the 95% confidence interval.
The results show that head-to-head, Ives leads Casten by 9 points (47-38 Ives) and that Casten’s re-elect number is under 40 (38.3%).
Questions and responses included:
How likely are you to vote in next year’s Presidential Election?
Very Likely – 92.3%
Somewhat Likely – 2.6%
Somewhat Unlikely – 1.2%
Very Unlikely – 3.8%
Thinking about the race for Congress, if the election were held today would you be more likely to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate?
Republican – 43.3%
Democratic – 48.6%
Undecided – 8.1%
Thinking about the November General Election for Congress, if the election were held today, for which candidate would you likely or lean towards voting, Republican Jeanne Ives or Democrat Sean Casten?
Likely Jeanne Ives – 39.6%
Lean Jeanne Ives – 7.4%
Lean Sean Casten – 7.6%
Likely Sean Casten – 29.8%
Undecided – 15.5%
I suggest swearing in Jeanne Ives to replace Sean Casten immediately based on the results of this poll. Compassionate conservative republikkklans, did I make you feel good? May God bless Honorable Congressman and accomplished business leader Sean Casten. Stay tuned…315 days…tic, tock, tic, tock, tic, tock, meeeeeeoooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwww…
No worries, Angel, we can wait until January of 2021.
Very clear, impeachment is costing Casten.
One can imagine what the 14th looks like with impeachment.
This can’t be a good poll for Ives:
Thinking about the race for Congress, if the election were held today would you be more likely to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate?
Republican – 43.3%
Democratic – 48.6%
Undecided – 8.1%
Very clear.
Super clear.
So crystal-clear super-obvious-numbers-don’t-lie-obvious that a no-name Dem is up 5 points on a no-name Republican!!!
Fake impeachment hoax scam is totally NOT working.
Or…. just hear me out Lopez…. maybe…. just maybe…. the respondents in the poll are typical of the public at large and can’t name their Congressional Reps much less have ever heard of Ives.
lol, Lopez.
You and this website crack me up.
Polls and the mostly left wing media told us back in 2016 that the liar thug Hillary would handily beat Trump. Would be easy for her and she would get more than enough electoral college votes.
She’ll win.
Casten will cry.
Oh you are funny.
Opinions vary as far as this site and my work.
Lopez –
Serious question #1: How do you reconcile this poll that has Ives up 47-38 AND has generic dem over generic GOP by 5 points?
Serious question #2: If impeachment is such a liability for Casten, how is a generic Dem up 5 points?
My initial comment was snarky but let’s have honest open dialog here.
How do you reconcile these poll numbers?
Interesting data point.
It does follow the Clinton Impeach experience in which the voters rejected a Partisan impeachment.
My view of course and backed by a 7 to 1 ratio RNC over DNC for donations in reaction to the hurry up and impeach.
Dems decision rush this prior to President Election and now only to stall confirming the sham will not end well for them.
I rarely agree with Our Latina Angel, but in this case she’s right, just swear Ives in and save everyone the fuss and let the healing begin.
Can’t answer any of the “serious questions” without access to the polling data, and since cross tabs not released, remains unanswered.
Why the Ives campaign released both sets of numbers, they are the only ones.
All Can and I generally do with a press release is cut & paste, and include a pic.
You can’t explain how a generic D beats a generic R in this poll because you can’t see the cross tabs yet at the same time with the same poll you can clearly see that the poll clearly shows impeachment is costing Carsten.
I think you might be full of it, Lopez.
Polls smolls…The real question for these races is, “Who do God and John choose to win?
Isn’t that how it really works?
God picked Obama (twice) and Lauren Underwood.
I actually don’t think God pocked Obama because God is too busy picking winners and losers for sporting events and the CMA’s. God doesn’t have enough tine for politics.
But it is funny to think about all the times Lopez has claimed here on this blog that God choose Trump to lead our country and wonder if Lopez ever told anyone at any tome that God had selected Obama to lead us.
Or if Lopez said to anyone at any time that God had picked Underwood to rep us in IL-14? Don’t think I’ve seen that here!
Oh (7:17PM), I stand by what I said, and your snark is getting tiresome.
Go and see what you asked, you asked a “how”, not a “what”.
I cannot explain a “how”.
What is easy, if Ives was comfortable releasing the executive summary portions of the poll, and the metrics of the poll (sample size, margin of error) are within acceptable levels, one takes it at face value.
We’ll see if DCCC or Casten release a rebuttal, but my guess is, they will not until January.
If the poll the Tribune will do next month is released and shows comparable results, then without the data, we’ll know her poll is consistent.
If the poll shows a wide swing, with Casten a 10-point lead, then both polls will be questionable.
We’ll see.
Tom, I have picked nobody in any race.
I have no favorites, period.
Yes, I’m aware people let their fears run away with their reason and think I have favorites.
Truth is, I don’t.
As for God choosing whom He wants, that’s in Scripture (Romans Ch. 13).
Its ”very clear” that impeachment is costing Casten, even though impeachment was not polled and you cannot answer how the generic D leads the generic R by 5 points in the same exact poll.
That clears this up for me. “Very clear”
The made a movie about Sean and his supporters: https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Uv32O3DS&id=2CBED2CE8292A6B2A2EA644B9ADDAA9F1C1D3BD5&thid=OIP.Uv32O3DSB2ylHWMLgcd-GgHaLH&mediaurl=http%3A%2F%2F411posters.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F08%2Fstout-shaun-of-the-dead.jpg&exph=800&expw=533&q=shaun+of+the+dead+poster&simid=607986490233979793&selectedindex=68&vt=1&eim=10,8,3,4,2,1,6&sim=11
LOL at any campaign using Ogden & Fry.