IL-14: Early March Poll Shows Oberweis in Lead by 13 Percentage Points, Rezin Second

Found on Capitol Fax are these poll results from Ogden and Fry.

John Lopez notes in a comment,

“Thank goodness for crosstabs in the link. Undecideds/No Responses were NOT includes in the Q2 & Q3.

“Factoring Undecided in, UNDECIDED leads this poll!”

Here are these folks’ second choices:

The poll also asked about Jim Oberweis’ and Sue Rezin’s favorables and unfavorables.

For Oberweis:

For Rezin:

Those selected to be polled have voted in one of the last three Republilcan primaries.

Here is where they lived:

Male versus female in the sample:

Respondents by age:



Comments

IL-14: Early March Poll Shows Oberweis in Lead by 13 Percentage Points, Rezin Second — 38 Comments

  1. Thank goodness for crosstabs in the link. Undecideds/No Responses were NOT includes in the Q2 & Q3.

    Factoring Undecided in, UNDECIDED leads this poll!

    With the denominator the 535 like/very like Republican primary voters (Q1), here is how the poll breaks down:

    UNDECIDED171 32%

    Oberweis137 26%
    Rezin 90 17%
    Lauf 53 10%
    Marter 41 8%
    Gradel 22 4%
    Evans 13 2%
    Catella 8 1%
    535 100%

    Factoring in the undecides, Oberweis’ lead is 9 points, not 13.

    And right now, Ted Gradel is beginning to look like, to a certain degree, Mike Bloomberg, not for his hundreds of millions spent, but for his hundreds of thousands and he only has 6%/4% support, trailing James Marter and Catalina Lauf.

  2. I just can’t imagine Gradel finishing behind Lauf and Marter but if he does, man what a waste of all that cash haha.

    If Rezin wins it will be because Gradel spent a lot of money attacking Oberweis.

    If Gradel does finish behind Lauf and Marter he should guillotine his consultant for all that football kicking crap.

  3. Ogden Fry is a very lousy pollster.

    Its a robopoll that doesn’t call cell phones.

    This poll isn’t worth much.

  4. Capital Fax an authority on anything?

    Really?

    It’s a completely screwed up, biased fake news blog put out by a creep called Miller.

  5. Demographics read like Sun City residents did the majority of responding.

    Wait until the mailings/commercials get updated with the Moo Man bad news from the other day—numbers will change for sure.

    Havent fully trusted polls though since; Rove, Silver/538, Luntz blew the 2016 election–and they’re supposed “professionals”.

    Guess if believe this Poll and if I was a candidate I’d hit Sun City hard with Moo Man bad news between now and St Patricks Day.

  6. Bob Wire, dist 14 is a very large area.

    You’re thinking is microscopic in the scheme of things.

    You’re thinking of your little corner of the world.

  7. ** Capital Fax an authority on anything? Really?**

    Dude. I know reading comprehension is difficult, but CapFax didn’t do the poll.

    They just published it.

    Try harder.

  8. John, it’s clear you don’t understand statistics.

    What you’ve done is NOT how to handle undecideds in a poll because they’ll ultimately split among several candidates.

    The proper method is as done by the pollster: divide the number for each candidate by those with an opinion.

    If you read the entire report, you would have found the margin of error was 4.32%.

  9. I just got one of the most original mailers I’ve ever gotten and it was from Rezin today.

    Wow about Oberweis and wife beating but wow oh wow about the hilarious last page about Oberweis using ice cream to make the point of how bad of a nominee he would be.

    A+ from Rezin

  10. Mr. Willson, I do know more about statistics, and even minored in it a long time ago.

    And I did read the full instruction of the sample size of 535, margin of error, confidence interval, etc.

    The pollster doesn’t say they split out the undecideds into the candidates.

    If they did that, it’s no longer a point-in-time “snapshot” of the electorate, but a predictive model of how the election will finish using data from March 5, and predict to March 17.

    Because Q2 and Q3 had a significantly different number in the denominator, I cannot accept the numbers because the denominators are inconsistent.

    Because the number of respondents was given, I just determine how many in the 535 did not respond with a candidate on Q2, for whatever reason, and that became “UNDECIDEDs/NO RESPONSE”

    Admittedly, it’s guerrilla math, but finding out the key Q2 responses, 177 out of 535 did not respond with a preference, tells me this race is very fluid. With the guerrilla math, the revised percentages are within the margin of error.

    It’s too bad we didn’t have a benchmark poll from early January to compare then and now.

    But since we don’t, I’ve always interpret this kind of result, with nearly 1/3 undecided and no candidate polling above undecideds outside the margin of error, meaning the race can break between the top 2 candidates.

    The pollster thought the similar thing, since they drilled down only on Oberweis and Rezin.

    We all know, the campaigns will take this poll and compare it to their campaign’s own polls and respective margins of error, and determine if the independent poll is consistent with their internal polls, or overstates or understates how their candidate is doing.

    As I said in the other thread, if I knew Lauf was going to be on TV with commercial advertising, I’d think she has a chance to pull this out.

    But knowing she won’t be, I’m predicting Lauf will finish in 3rd instead of 4th, and this poll reflects her in 3rd place yesterday.

    But as Sentinel revealed, Rezin’s 2nd mailer has been delivered, and as Cal said, you’ll see it tomorrow if you didn’t receive it in the mail today.

    That kind of marketing will have an impact, just as TV commercial advertising will, too, and someone already said in comments in another article that they saw Gradel’s commercial tonight.

    Ten days to go.

  11. Political pollsters absolutely do not just put the undecideds into the other candidates proportionately.

  12. I know a bit about statistics too, John, since I use it in my work every day.

    But, I tell you what.

    Don’t take my word for it.

    Call a statistics professor, tell him what you did, and ask him if that’s the right way to make the calculation.

    Then report back here what the professor says.

  13. No Mr. Willson (feeling like Dennis the Menace here), I’m satisfied with what I did, so I’ll forget the professor call.

    Week from Tuesday, we’ll have a nominee, and will go with that.

  14. Alabama shake, I apologize if I was not clear.

    You are correct, pollsters do not allot undecideds to the candidates proportionally.

    Ultimately those people make up their minds and decide, and their votes will be split among the candidates.

    We just don’t know how.

    But, at the time of the poll, they are not included in determining the percentages in favor of each candidate.

  15. Mr.JOPEZ,god has brought you a long way from Lauf will finish 4th or 5th to she could pull this whole thing off, if.

    My fellow brother, walk with faith, not sight.

    Lauf will prevail, God has a plan.

  16. Distrusting, I have always known God has a plan, and everything is done for His will, not ours.

    I was starting to notice the Lauf surge over the last weekend.

    And I’ve written about it many times.

    Even before the surge was noticed, I did say it would take an act of God for Lauf or any of the candidates who did not have at least $300K in the bank at end of last year to be competitive if not win.

    It has not been revealed who specifically will prevail a week from Tuesday.

    And unlike blogger Jeff Ward, I do not make predictions.

    Once the votes are counted, we’ll know for certain.

    But a cool thing about Rezin’s surge and Lauf’s.

    It’s the Republican women who are surging the most in this race.

    Will one of them win?

    God only knows.

  17. Okay, John, let’s try this one more time. After that, I’ll give up.

    In a particular precinct, there are 800 residents. 500 are adults. 400 are registered to vote. On election day, 200 take ballots: 100 Democrat and 100 Republican. Of the 100 Republican voters, 80 vote in the election for the House of Representatives. Candidate “A” gets 44 votes.

    Did Candidate “A” win?

    The answer, of course, is, yes, Candidate “A” won with 55% of the vote, that is 55 of 80 votes cast for that position.

    In other words, the proper denominator is those who actually vote in that particular contest. Note the last term there: “in that particular contest”.

    The difference between those who take a ballot and those who vote in a particular contest is called “attrition”, and it can be significant.

    So, in a poll, if 100 likely Republican voters are asked for whom they’ll vote, and only 80 have an opinion, what’s the proper denominator?

    Every politician understands this. It’s called the “+/-/0” system (the “plus-minus-zero” system). Here’s how it works.

    In a typical campaign, a volunteer doesn’t contact all 800 people in the district, nor 500, nor 400, nor 200. The volunteer contacts only the 100 likely voters for his party. Each prospective voter is asked if they plan to vote for Candidate A (a “+” voter), for Candidate B (a “-” voter), or if they haven’t decided (a “0” voter). 40 say A, 40 say B, and 20 say they don’t know.

    If there’s time, the volunteer goes back a second time to which houses? Answer: those 20 houses where the “0” voters live. He tries to persuade them and asks them again if they’ll vote for Candidate A. Assume the volunteer persuades 4. They become “+” voters.

    On election day, who does the volunteer contact to remind them to go to the polls and vote for Candidate A? All 800? No. All 500? No. All 400? No. All 200 likely voters? No. All 100 likely Republican voters? Heck, no! The volunteer doesn’t want to encourage everyone to vote. No, the volunteer contacts only the 44 “+” voters. The volunteer hopes everyone else forgets to vote. The volunteer only wants the “+” voters to go to the polls.

    Hence, in an election of this type, some of the undecideds will pick candidate A, some B, and many won’t vote in that particular contest. But at this late date in the campaign, the best forecast is of those likely voters who have a definite opinion.

    Let me be clear: the poll doesn’t guarantee who’ll win. It is, however, the best indication at this particular time. Emphasis on the word “best”.

    Hence, the proper denominator for making a forecast.

    It’s not a matter of simply doing a division problem, it’s deciding what division problem to do.

  18. I was one of the respondents in this phone survey, Cal.

    Since there are people who seem to know stats, what do you guys make of the comment about this poll sampling too many males?

    I noticed that too but was wondering how far it might actually be off from the real deal.

    If I’m not mistaken, the Democrats are more female and the Republicans are more male, so it does make sense more males would be sampled but I’m not sure how much it deviates from the Republican electorate.

  19. Correcting: Yours is a good insight.

    In the 2016 general election, 63.3% of women and 59.3% of men voted.

    In the 2018 election, 55.0% of women voted and 51.8% of men.

    Women represent 53% of eligible voters.

    “GENDER DIFFERENCES IN VOTER TURNOUT”

    http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/resources/genderdiff.pdf

    So women were under represented in the survey.

    However, with two women in the race, if there is a preference by women for women, they’ll split the vote.

    I’m not sure that kind of preference actually exists, though.

    “There is no gender gap in our poll”

    https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-04-30-2019/h_5bbcb7871d217255122400343fa2a859

    Consider the Democrat primary.

    Women make up about 60% of Democrat voters.

    Last fall, when Warren was gaining ground and was neck-and-neck with Bernie Sanders, she polled 17.3% among women versus 14.4% among men.

    At the same time, Joe Biden polled 28.8% among women and 28.6% among men and Bernie Sanders polled 15.5% among women and 17.9% among men.

    So no strong gender preference was noted.

    “Why Warren Can’t Count On A ‘Women’s Vote’ ”

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-warren-cant-count-on-a-womens-vote/

  20. Correcting, cool that you got the phone call.

    We all need to remember, as the poll documentation states, the pollster was commissioned by State Rep. Keith Wheeler to find out where the 14th district race stands.

    The poll’s sample size being significantly weighted toward men of the 535 poll sample, is a valid question as the crosstab suggests. The raw sample size initially had a total of 677 respondents per Q1 which is not in the article, and we do not know the gender breakdown of the 143 people who said they are not likely to vote in the Republican primary.

    In spite of their soft Republican voting history which brought them into the raw sample of 677. The removal of the 143 people from the raw sample might account for the reason more men made the poll sample size of 535.

    We’ve exchanged some comments this past week concerning Super Tuesday, and how the results could impact 14th district Republican primary turnout.

    If the Democratic presidential race is still up in the air by March 17, and given the shrunken candidates’ field in the past week it’s 50-50 if Illinois will be relevant given the upcoming March 10 primaries, women, whom many are more moderate, may be planning to vote in the Democratic presidential primary those women could be part of the 143 dropped from the raw sample.

    Some men will likely do the same, so not suggesting it was all women who dropped from the raw sample.

    Now, if after Tuesday’s primaries in places like Washington-state and Ohio among other states produce another lopsided primaries victory for Joe Biden, the Democratic nomination may be all but over.

    Right now, the presidential candidates are making appearances and spending money through TV commercials in Illinois and the Chicago media market.

    Sanders is expected to win 2, possibly three states on Tuesday.

    Illinois’ primary is the same day as Florida’s Democratic presidential primary, so Illinois is in good company with the biggest swing state on the same day.

    One other thing about Florida vs. Illinois.

    Illinois is an open primary state, and registered voters may choose to participate in the Republican or Democratic primary and make that decision at the polling place.

    Florida is a closed primary state, which means you register to vote by political party, and if you want to change from Republican to Democrat, you have to change your voter registration.

    Illinois’ open primary state status could contribute to a lower turnout in the Republican primary if more voters take Democratic ballots.

    Maybe others have insight, but that’s my 2 cents.

  21. Huge drop off between how many surveyed and the actual responses in q2.

    I think this is what Lopez is referring to with undecided voters?

    If you look at these stats and then consider the undecided, in order for a candidate to overtake Oberweis’s lead they would have to have a huge swing with undecided voters, Oberweis would have to collapse with undecided voters, and the undecided voters would have to coalesce around a single alternative.

    Maybe someone could crunch the numbers on that, but it seems unlikely that someone would catch him.

    Rezin and Lauf perhaps, and obviously it would be much harder for Lauf to catch him since she’s starting from much further behind than Rezin is behind.

    I still see this race ending in a big Oberweis victory.

  22. Marter is the one to vote for.

    He won’t sell us out like Oberweis has, Rezin has, Gradel will, or Underwood does every 15 minutes.

  23. @Correcting

    You are right that the Republican Party tends to skew more male, but I have no idea what the exact number is.

    A ratio of 308 to 223 seems rather high to me.(My inner conspiracy theorist thought that these numbers had to be made up, because .223 and .308 are the two most common centerfire rifle calibers, and what are the odds of that result occurring? 🙂

    At any rate, it’s important to note that this was not strictly a poll of Republicans; it was a poll of people who took a Republican ballot in at least one of the last three primaries.

    Democrats around here often pull a Republican ballot in non presidential primaries, because a large percentage of the Democrat races are either non contested or else they have no candidate slated.

  24. Correcting, yes, the drop off of the poll sample of 535 to the 364 people who answered the question is what I refer to as “undecideds”, and since the number of responses was reported, did the math to determine the 177 number.

    Concerning Oberweis’ support, please remember he’s started as the frontrunner on name ID alone.

    That kind of support is usually soft, and with intense campaigning in final days, Rezin can build support not only from undecideds but also by peeling away support from Oberweis.

    I think Lauf and Marter support, and to a lesser degree Rezin, is firm support, but Oberweis’ appears to be more soft.

    We’ll know for sure in 10 days, but given many voters when they change from a candidate, they may be in the undecideds before making their decision.

    That’s why the highest plurality among undecideds is important because many may be reconsidering their support when they were for Oberweis on name ID initially.

    We’ll know for sure in 10 days.

  25. When analyzing the field in the last 10 days it doesn’t take rocket science to see that Lauf is the strongest match up against Dirty Underwear.

    The voters know, and they will make that selection accordingly.

  26. As I’ve said recently to you and others, if you are right Distrusting, it will be an act of God.

    All of Lauf’s supporters, and especially Lauf herself, keep praying.

  27. I do pray for Lauf.

    That she won’t down a lot of pills and commit suicide when she comes in 5th.

  28. Those numbers for Evans can’t be right!

    They’re wat too high!

  29. FattyArbuckle — that’s not even something to joke about.

    Pretty sad you had to go that far.

  30. Why pray to God for any candidate? Do people who pray really, really want God to influence any election? Hasn’t he/she given us free will to make our own decisions? For better or for worse?

  31. Correcting: “ Shake, they called me on my cell phone.”

    Then you probably didn’t get a call on this poll. Ogden Fry doesn’t call cell phones because they use robocalls rather than live callers.

    I’m sure there are multiple polls that have been in the field over the last week or two.

  32. Bred Winner, please read Romans chapter 13, it’s in Scripture.

  33. The questions in this one were the same ones I got, Shake.

    They asked me how likely I was to vote, first choice, second choice, and favorable/unfavorable/never heard of Oberweis and Rezin.

    Multiple polls out at the same time, yes, but the same questions in the same order?

    That would be a great coincidence.

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