The nomination will either go to Jim Oberweis or Sue Rezin unless something drastically changes

We’re now within 5 1/2 days of primary election day, and with all of the Independent Expenditures (IE) spending against both Jim Oberweis and Sue Rezin, along with negative ads and mailers from other candidates, it is coming down to either State Senators Jim Oberweis or Sue Rezin.

This morning on AM 560 Oberweis was interviewed, and in spite both Ted Gradel and Catalina Lauf were interviewed prior to him, Oberweis is only focused on Rezin and no one else, apart from the dark money being spent against him through IE from Illinois Conservatives Fund, and a lesser degree from New Prosperity Foundation.

The links to the one-on-one telephone interviews on AM 560 this morning are below. The Rezin for Congress campaign told AM 560 of a long-planned scheduling conflict which prevented Rezin’s participation, so in spite of what was said on the air about Rezin “refused” to participate, the campaign says otherwise.

Back to the New Prosperity Foundation, as was published earlier this afternoon, the Ted Gradel-allied PAC has added Catalina Lauf to the list of attacked opponents, behind Oberweis and Rezin. As Cal said, the independent poll released last Friday showed Lauf ahead of Gradel, and apparently Gradel’s internal tracking says the same, hence the attack.

As expected, Lauf is being targeted for her 10 months of employment for Governor Bruce Rauner’s reelection campaign. But unlike the bulk of attacks against Oberweis and Rezin, all three attack bulletpoints against Lauf are accurate discussing her employer’s candidate in 2018.

Honestly, given who was conducting the interview this morning on the radio, I’m surprised her time with Rauner’s reelection campaign was not brought up.

As Oberweis said on the radio, his campaign is focused on Rezin, and Rezin’s Opponents page of her campaign website only has Oberweis (6 articles) and Gradel (2 articles), and nothing about Lauf. Unless Lauf is added there, the hypothesis of Rezin’s internal polling data or an attack response against an opponent says Lauf is not in contention, in spite of her modest surge since the first of the year, particularly in fundraising.

Also published earlier today, a targeted mailing for McHenry County voters hit the street, with hits against Oberweis and soft hits against the others. Presumably, similar targeted mailings with elected officials who’ve endorsed Rezin will hit all of the other counties within the 14th.

Speaking of fundraising, through 3:30PM CDT, here is the latest, post Pre-primary fundraising reports Form 6 (IL A-1) filed:

Recent updates include:

• Catalina Lauf received $4,695 from three separate donors
• Sue Rezin received $2,000 from two donors
• Jim Oberweis received $1,000 from a donor

While part of the New Prosperity Foundation’s latest mailing was funded by an IE, the corresponding FEC Form 24 still names only Jim Oberweis and Sue Rezin, which is why an opposition IE spend is not added to Lauf. If an amended Form 24 is submitted, the numbers will be corrected.

Links to AM 560 phone interviews:

• Ted Gradel: https://youtu.be/5lyT8ffF0MA
• Catalina Lauf: https://youtu.be/DS5s_xE4-tM
• Jim Oberweis: https://youtu.be/zlkl7AyoZu4?t=65