Looking at Illinois Hospital Adequacy

From Steve Willson:

Will Illinois Have Enough Masks/Beds/Ventilators?

How many hospitals are there in Illinois?  141
Source:  https://www.ahd.com/state_statistics.html

How man hospital beds and vents are there in Illinois and their utilization?

Source: https://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/news-item.aspx?ReleaseID=21351

04/03        Total      Open
Beds          27,991    11,502
ICU beds     2,683         806
  COVID-19    935
Vents           2,543     1,517  (Federal government sending 600)
  COVID-19     666

How many COVID-19 cases are there in Illinois?

Source:  https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics

Date           Positive    Deaths
03/22         1,049             9
03/29         4,596           65
04/05       11,256         274

How many nurses  per occupied hospital bed? 3.0 to 3.5 Source:  https://www.statista.com/statistics/325303/hospital-staffing-ratios-by-fte-per-occupied-bed-by-mhs-ownership-in-the-us/

Number of nurses in Illinois = 123,000

Source:  https://learnonline.eiu.edu/articles/rnbsn/illinois-facing-nurse-shortage.aspx

Number of ER doctors ~ 1,000?

Source:  www.icep.org

How many masks are needed?

Number of beds x number of nurses = 27,991 x 3.25 = 91,000 nurses
+ ER Physicians in Illinois ~ 1,000?
+ Police  ~ 41,000 (Source: wikipedia)

How often should masks be replaced?  At least once a day but now being used for up to a week at a time.

Conclusion:  Illinois needs 
400,000 to 3.0 million masks per month.
The federal government recently sent around 300,000 masks.

Projected COVID-19 cases in two weeks based on recent rate of increase

04/12p   27,500
04/19p   50,000

Will hospital/ICU/Vent capacity be exceeded?

Date           Total beds   COVID-19  Open beds     ICU beds COVID-19    Vents    COVID-19
04/03             27,991            935          11,502          2,683           806        2,543           666
04/12p           30,500         2,900           4,000?         3,000       2,000        3,150           2,065
04/19p           30,500         5,300           1,500?         3,100       3,800        3,300?         3,750

The peak is likely to come in about three weeks, so, conservatively, it looks like Illinois will be short 1,000 to 3,000 ICU beds and 1,000 to 3,000 ventilators by then.


Looking at Illinois Hospital Adequacy — 8 Comments

  1. Trump says there is ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ after grim warnings of coronavirus death toll rising

    Trump is finally correct, there is “light at the end of the tunnel”

    It’s also known as the 2020 Presidential election!


  2. Sunshine blogger, when are you posting the next installment of the “If I could live in a world without taxes” series? Stay tuned…tic, tock, tic, tock, tic, tock, hug a blogger, tic, tock, tic, tock, meeeeeeoooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwww…

  3. Does anybody know any local companies who are producing ppe or ventilators?

  4. dent blah brings up Trump.

    Trump will have an easy win if he gets to face Biden, the sleepy creepy dementia dufus who was the sidekick to the worst ever president of the U.S. Perhaps Biden will step aside, but then again, the Democrat Party has nobody else except the lunatic waving his arms about, crazy Bernie. Besides being wrong so many times on matters such as foreign affairs, Biden has been an obnoxious person who violates women’s spaces and insults citizens who ask him questions. At least Bernie is respectful of women.

    Biden has a long record of planting unwanted kisses on women’s faces. He went way over the top one time by standing behind a woman in Nevada and smelling her hair. She was a Democrat candidate for some office there. After that incident, the woman told the media she was mortified in that on that one day, for whatever reason, she had not washed her hair that day.

    In recent times, Biden has insulted citizens by challenging them to do push-ups, telling one worker he is full of s–t and a horse’s a**. Back in February, he greatly insulted a 21-year old woman college student saying to her face that she was a “Dog Faced Pony Soldier”.

    You have to wonder how a jerk, dufus, like Biden was elected a number of times in Delaware. What is in the water in that state? Are people there drinking some kind of Democrat “kool-aid” that makes them dumb.

    If Democrat Convention picks Biden, then slogan can be MASA, Make America Stupid Again – as in the 8 years of Obama/Biden.

  5. There would be light at the end of the tunnel but JB (Jumbo Boy) Pritzker is standing at the exit blocking the sun.

    You know how many masks we could have purchased with the tax money he saved from taking his toilets out of his mansion?

    Probably could have had a bunch of vents too?

    Time to flush this turd.

  6. Per website, https://coronavirus.illinois.gov/s/ at 5 PM on April 6th

    144 cases in McHenry County
    114,544 households in McHenry County
    114,544/144 = 795
    One case for every 795 households

    5067 cases in Chicago
    1,077,886 households in Chicago
    1,077,886/5067 = 213
    One case for every 213 households

    Per New York Media

    72,181 cases in New York CIty
    New York City Households are 3,154,103
    One case for every 44 households

  7. population density of New York City = 27,000 people per square mile.

    population density of Chicago = 4,582 people per square mile.

    population density of McHenry County = 506 people per square mile.

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