While not yet claiming victory, Garcia thanked volunteers for “doing God’s work here” as he holds on to 12 percentage point lead and 17,339 vote margin
In the nationally watched CA-25 special election runoff, preliminary returns from Los Angeles and Ventura counties show Republican Mike Garcia leading Democrat Christy Smith by 17,339 votes
| Candidate | Votes | Pct of vote |
| Mike Garcia (R) | 80,337 | 56 |
| Christy Smith (D) | 62,998 | 44 |
Under California’s Vote by Mail (VBM) law, ballots must be returned to the county voter registrar by Friday, with a postmark on or before May 12.
The counties will continue counting ballots into next week, but given the margin, the election can be called before all the ballots are counted.
As written yesterday morning, the issues, and other factors are key to what only the most optimistic prediction would have forecast a double digit percentage of the vote margin.
One component working against Democrat Smith is a bipartisan coalition of voters who’ve been negatively impacted by the passage of Assembly Bill (AB5), the law classifying workers that has hurt gig workers, and made nearly impossible to be an independent contractor.
This meme is an example of the grassroots group attempting to repeal the AB5 law by initiative in the fall:
While turnout for the special election, based on the number of ballots returned, was higher than most special elections, the fact Garcia was winning Los Angeles County, which is a little less than 80% of the voters in the district, by 12 percentage points was remarkable and cannot be all based on turnout.
While Democrats started downplaying expectations for the special election two weeks ago, most pundits had started predicting Garcia to win by a 5 point margin, or less.
Given the two members of Congress who represent McHenry County voted for the Federal equivalent of AB5 in February is something that might work in the fall for the two Republican nominees in the 6th and 14th districts.
At his telephone rally of supporters, volunteers and media, Garcia thanked everyone for “doing God’s work here” supporting his candidacy in the election. He stopped short of declaring victory, wanting to determine if VBM ballots would be returned at a level of support for his opponent that could tighten the race.
As returns continue to be reported, updates will be published.
UPDATE: NRCC Chair Tom Emmer, citing California Target Book analytics, calls on Democrat Christy Smith to concede
And I thought I was the only person who used California Target Book’s outstanding analytical services and BOT. National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Tom Emmer (R, MN) issued statement around dawn this morning:
The full context of California Target Book Research Director Rob Pyers is transcribed below:
“Right now, 143,335 votes have been counted, approaching the 161,860 that voted in the special election primary. If the same number of people ultimately end up voting, Smith can close the gap if she wins ~97% of the outstanding ballots.
“To clarify, she’d need 97% if turnout matches the #CA25 March primary. If the turnout % reaches Nov ’18 levels and there are ~132K ballots still out there (despite limited in-person voting & sharp reduction in provisional ballots), she’d only need ~57%.
“(And given the way the vote center ballots went in L.A. County yesterday, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Garcia’s margin grows a bit more when the more solidly Republican Ventura County portion posts its vote center ballot count this afternoon).”
Tweets from Rob Pyers, research director from California Target Book
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** the grassroots group attempting to repeal the AB5 law **
You don’t seriously believe that this is a grassroots group, right?
This is funded by tens of millions of dollars from the gig employees (Uber, Lyft, GrubHub, etc).
So, why do you keep saying the PROact is the federal equivalent of AB5?
They did/do very different things, as YOU pointed out.
The comparison is silly.
“millions of dollars from the gig employees”
If it’s a movement solely funded by people who drive other people, it’s grassroots.
Grassroots means it’s done spontaneously by normal people.
Just because employees of an industry are protesting doesn’t mean it’s not grassroots.
Most people who work are employees for someone.
Now if the CEO of the organization were funding it, or if the American Petroleum Institute were funding it, or Sheldon Adelson, then you’d be right to question it being “grassroots.”
Something doesn’t automatically become “not grassroots” just because there are “millions of dollars.”
Bernie Sanders probably raised over a hundred million and most were just individuals contributing small amounts.
Millions of dollars is tiddly winks in politics.
Do you know how many Uber and Lyft employees there are just in the U.S.?
Hundreds of thousands.
Alabama, you are right, the PROact, as one journalist working on the ground in California told me, is “AB5 on steroids”.
I think you meant to say “scary”, not “silly”?
Who called it “unthinkable???”
Im not seeing anywhere in the posts that anyone has called it unthinkable.
FLamont, look at yesterday’s article, with the cluster of newsprint headlines about 1/2 way down. The POLITICO headline used the word “Unthinkable”, so I’m quoting POLITICO.
http://mchenrycountyblog.com/2020/05/12/decision-day-in-california-25th-congressional-district
More straight up lunacy and Democrat assclownery with AB 5.
If Uber drivers are employees of Uber, than if I offer to cut your grass on Craig’s List, I’m an employee of Craig’s List.
Now let’s go all the way to 11 stupid. In Illinois terms, I’m working to pay Property Taxes.
Am I an Illinois employee entitled to Pension and Health?
**If it’s a movement solely funded by people who drive other people, it’s grassroots.**
Sorry Correcting… that was a typo. Its being funded by tens/hundreds of millions of dollars from EmployERS. Not employees.
**If Uber drivers are employees of Uber, than if I offer to cut your grass on Craig’s List, I’m an employee of Craig’s List.
No, that’s not how it works. That is a terrible comparison. Does Craigslist pay you when do you do? No? Because Uber is the one that pays an Uber drive – not the rider.
**Alabama, you are right, the PROact, as one journalist working on the ground in California told me, is “AB5 on steroids”.**
Ok… if you say so. Feel free to go ahead and run a campaign that Casten and Underwood voted to allow workers to collectively organizing and bargain. See how well that does for you.
Big Labor Unions are not mainstream in IL-06 and IL-14, so the unions’ spin will not work in those two districts.
There are current laws on the books to deal with worker classifications, and Casten and Underwood will be held accountable for that anti-worker legislation.
Hey dude.
I don’t barge into your comments and slap Casten and Underwood’s butts out of your mouth.
How did #CA25 vote so differently after Katie Hill (D) won it by 9% in ‘18?
1) Garcia a fighter pilot w/ no voting record (unlike Knight, who voted to repeal ACA)
2) Dem “surge” voters…declined
3) Anti-Trump voters who liked Garcia could elect him *and* keep Ds in majority