Time to End Pritzker Purgatory

From Wirepoints:

Pritzker has no excuse to extend his shutdown of Illinois. His own data says reopen. – Wirepoints

June 11, 2020

By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner

Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s justifications for maintaining one of the strictest reopening schedules in the country are falling by the wayside.

Even his own science and data are working against him. 

The data is overwhelming.

Daily hospitalizations and deaths are dropping significantly. Hospitals are more than prepared for any new surge.

The majority of COVID-related deaths are concentrated in a known, limited segment of the population.

Illinoisans under the age of 30 have been spared by the virus.

And the general population has been largely unaffected.

Illinois’ reopening plan has been pegged as the most strict in the nation and it’s continuing to destroy lives and livelihoods.

Here are five of Pritzker’s own data points that show why he can reopen Illinois in a much more aggressive fashion.

1. Hospitalizations are down by half, deaths by 40 percent since their peaks

Data from the IDPH shows the COVID-19 situation in Illinois has been steadily improving.

Downward-trending daily hospitalizations and deaths serve as convincing evidence for expediting the reopening of the state.

Hospitalizations are down to 2,458, less than half the peak of 5,036 on April 28.

The actual peak of the virus was even earlier. Hospitalization lags infection by about 13 days, according to the CDC.

This means the virus actually peaked sometime in mid-April. 

COVID-related deaths, a lagging indicator, have also been trending downwards.

At its peak, the seven-day average for deaths was 117 on May 15.

The most recent seven-day running average was 68 deaths, over 40 percent lower.

Both of these peaks occurred before Phase 2 even began, which was on May 1.

There’s been no visible surge in hospitalizations or deaths since then.

Illinois moved to Phase 3 only 12 days ago, so the impact of any further reopening remains unknown due to the lag effect of the virus. 

2. Illinois hospitals are fully prepared for a potential surge

Being unprepared for a surge in serious cases may have been a legitimate concern at the beginning of the crisis, but it no longer holds true today.

Illinois now has more than enough hospital resources to tackle a spike, as evidenced in the following graphics.

In fact, Illinois always had a surplus of resources, even during the peak of the virus. 

About 14,000 hospital beds are unused today, or about 39 percent of the state’s total supply.

Illinois’ never saw an occupancy of more than 70 percent of its beds since the government began reporting hospitalization data on April 3.

More than 43 percent of intensive care unit (ICU) beds are also unused, totaling almost 1,700 beds.

Illinois’ occupancy of ICU beds never exceeded 78 percent of its total, even during the peak.

And around 77 percent, or 4,500, of Illinois’ ventilators are currently unused.

Illinois never used more than 46 percent of its ventilators since the beginning of April.

The combination of declining hospitalizations and abundant hospital resources should be comforting to Illinoisans preparing for the state’s reopening.

It also eliminates one of Pritzker’s major excuses for stunting the reopening of Illinois’ economy.

3. More than half the state’s deaths come from retirement homes, facilities the state regulates.

Pritzker’s health officials knew from the beginning of the crisis that residents in Long Term Care (LTC) facilities, like nursing homes, were the most vulnerable.

Much could have been done to prevent those losses at the onset, but wasn’t.

Focusing on protecting residents in LTCs will be a far more effective way for Pritzker to mitigate fatalities than continuing to restrict the actions of the general public.

Long-term care residents make up just 1 percent of the state’s population, but they’ve contributed to 53 percent of all COVID-19 deaths.

That’s 3,083 of the state’s 5,792 deaths as of June 5th. 

Fix the LTC problem and the number of new Illinois deaths will continue to collapse.

4. Illinoisans now know who’s most at risk, and they can take the proper precautions.

After three months of constant crisis, Illinoisans most at risk of dying from COVID-19 – those with pre-existing conditions – are now more aware of that risk.

They’re far more likely to take precautions to protect themselves.

And those at less risk know to be more cautious around that vulnerable population. 

Illinois doesn’t currently share its comorbidity data with the general public.

Instead, Illinoisans depend on national and international data, which consistently shows that those with hypertensionobesitydiabetes and cardiovascular disease are overwhelmingly the targets of COVID-19. 

Wirepoints has provided the only comorbidity numbers available in Illinois.

We ran our own calculations using the Cook County Medical Examiner death database and found that 91 percent of the county’s COVID-19 deaths had a comorbidity as a secondary cause of death.

Those findings are consistent with those found across the nation and the world.

It’s irresponsible for Gov. Pritzker to continue to withhold comorbidity data from the public.

There are still some people who may not understand their risk, which is why continued education and data are essential. 

5. Illinois’ school and university-aged population have been largely spared 

Illinois’ school- and university-aged population have seen few COVID-19 deaths, yet they’ll have been kept out of school for six months by the time September rolls around.

Given what we know about COVID-19 and youth, there’s no reason to stop them from going back to school.

Only four Illinoisans under the age of 20 have died from COVID-19.

At least two of them had pre-existing conditions.

And just 21 youths aged 20 to 29 were victims of the virus.

Sixteen of those had pre-existing conditions. 

While losing anyone to COVID-19 is a tragedy, fatalities under age 30 have been so rare that they shouldn’t be a reason for keeping Illinois’ nearly three million K-12 and college students from progressing with life.

Illinois is ready to reopen

Gov. Pritzker’s own data are working against him and his overly-restrictive plan. 

And it’s not just the data in Illinois.

The CDC also says that under their “best estimate,” the infection’s fatality rate is just 0.4 percent.

That’s far lower than the “crude” fatality rate implied by IDPH’s numbers.

The CDC also released a statement that the virus “does not spread easily” from touching surfaces or objects.

Now, the World Health Organization says that it is “very rare” for asymptomatic carriers of the virus to infect other people. 

Doctors are also far smarter about and more prepared for the virus than they were two months ago.

As the Wall Street Journal recently highlighted, hospitals are better at managing COVID-19 patients and have come up with increasingly more effective drug and medicine combinations to treat the virus.

Then there’s the crisis the shutdown is creating on the other side of the ledger.

Over 1.2 million Illinoisans have filed for unemployment.

Up to a third of all restaurants in Illinois may never reopen. 

Nationally, over half of all small businesses are expecting to shut their doors permanently.

The consequences of the lockdown and the prolonged reopening are resulting in increased deaths from bad health, povertyopioid abusesuicidedomestic violence and depression

Add this all up and it’s clear Pritzker needs to relax Illinois’ existing rules and expedite Illinois’ reopening.

Read more about COVID-19 and the impact on Illinois:



Comments

Time to End Pritzker Purgatory — 23 Comments

  1. I’ve noticed my work ethic has felt drained.

    Day after day I’m just looking to be home, but then there isn’t much I look forward to other than going to sleep and back to work.

    I feel fatigued by the political hellscape, but ever since George Floyd I’ve seen less attention on the resurgence in cases and more emphasis on applauding the BLM protests.

    How is it okay to shame republicans for their re-opening protests but then to encourage the BLM ones?

    Guess which protest caused the most collateral damage to the state and communities & saw a rise in Covid cases after the fact?

  2. The unemployment numbers are mind blowing.

    This is exactly what they were hoping for in order to create fear and uncertainty for the 2020 elections.

    Cue the crybabies that will say: “You only care about jobs, not saving lives!”

    Not true.

    You’re just liars who believe more lies.

  3. Rob in Hood,

    I know what you mean.

    Even though I’m still working this is also wearing me out.

    It seems like they just want to break and demoralize everyone with this covid / unemployment / BLM stuff.

    You can’t go anywhere, everyone is wearing the dumbass masks, and thins seem to be just dragging along even though they still don’t seem normal.

    This is all about winning an election and killing the morale of Americans.

  4. I’ve been noticing more people not wearing masks, a lot more wearing them improperly to where they might as well not wear one.

    It doesn’t bother me, but throughout a week I may have it on for less than an hour.

    Really a minor change that doesn’t affect me and I wanted neck gaiters to protect my neck from the sun as I’m standing in it all day.

    As far as morale goes, my plan this year was eradicated to work on saving more to put a down payment on a house.

    The future of our nation’s economy and housing market look bleak as hell and I was old enough to understand 08.

    All that progress that’s been made since then has been for nothing.

    I’m sick of renting and slumlords.

  5. Agree with the above comments –

    and guns and ammo are selling
    faster now than ever before . . .

    IF you can find any and/or the specific
    firearm of your choice.

    Truth is, manufactures can’t make enough fast enough.

    This in and of itself is an ominous omen of what is in the offing.

    Don’t be scared – be prepared.

  6. “If the situation was hopeless, their propaganda would be unnecessary.” -anonymous internet proverb

  7. He’s only extending it as long as possible because there’s no line at the cake shop now.

  8. Oh no F F can’t lose control of his people… say its not so…

  9. Fatso honoring the 3 Kings; Albert King, BB King, Burger King.

    With the emphasis on King number 3.

  10. Anyone ever stop for a moment and wonder WHY Illinois’ COVID-19 numbers are as good as they are?

    Perhaps it’s BECAUSE we’ve been more strict than most states.

    We’re well on our way to Stage 4 on June 26.

    We’ve endured 3 months, what’s another 2 weeks?

    Or, as most here would want, screw it all and go full-steam back to where we were before COVID…..

    you’ll then hear JB proclaim we’re back to the beginning of Stage 1.

    That’s where we’re headed, folks…….

  11. Or are the numbers as good as they are because we have nothing to compare them to?

    Stage 4 still limits social gatherings, except approved protests, riots and looting, social distancing and wearing masks are the norm

  12. I’ll tell you this much from my recent travels in the land of freedom (Wisconsin).

    I know this isn’t scientific but I was listening to about an hour of lefties up in Madison calling out thier mayor for being a hypocrite and saying they need to get rid of her.

    I think the bs they are trying to pull is way too much to get past most people despite how the news makes it appear.

    In all reality, the fact that the democrats are going this far really reeks of desperation.

    If they thought Biden really would win easily they wouldn’t be doing what they are.

  13. Take a look at Texas, Florida, Georgia…the free states.

    New cases are skyrocketing.

    J.B. has been a true leader through all of this!

  14. Nancy, you live in dreamland,

    Don’t get in Fatty Pritzk’s way when the dinner bell is rung!

  15. Who ever said that cases would not go up if we opened up.

    That is a given.

    The point of the lock down was to ensure that our health system was not overwhelmed and it wasn’t even close.

    Now that we can see that we have capacity it’s time to open up.

    If JB really thought this would spike beyond capacity we would still have a hospital at mccormick place.

    Instead they hardly treated anyone there and closed it.

    In fact I have heard some rumors about mccormick place opening for some smaller stuff next month.

    This is from people who should know.

    So I think it’s time to open up.

    Public health officials have zero credibility any more.

    They have been wrong again and again by orders of magnitude.

    They are now saying that the 9 unarmed black men killed by police last year is a bigger threat than coronavirus.

    It’s obvious at this point that things are politically drive.

    Time to stick up for our rights.

    Someone else’s paranoria does not trump my rights.

  16. @Big Idiot Orange,

    Want to bet businesses will not go back to being locked down!

    And just out of curiosity how many people do you think people from Illinois traveled to Wis, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, Kentucky?

    That is not even including people that have taken trips to Fla, Nashville, Michigan, or any other state.

    All those truckers that have come and gone in our state.

    It is well into the millions!

    So to say that Illinois is sanctimonious in its lockdown is nothing but a stupid manipulative statistic!

    And if you are feeling unsafe wear a mask or stay home but why should others bow down because you don’t feel safe?

  17. Pritzker holding federal money hostage after he held businesses and citizens hostage.

    Counties and cities too afraid to stand up for what’s right.

    Playgrounds still taped.

    It’s ridiculous.

    JB wants the kids to stay inside and get as fat as his kids.

    He wants you to wear your mask and cause people to be angry and depressed until election season.

  18. Staying inside and getting fat also makes you susceptible to illness.

  19. Yeah, I definitely had more health problems or things waiting to be problems.

    Although I still see plenty of girls jogging about or walking their dogs.

    Kids riding their bikes and for whatever reason roller blading made a slight comeback.

    Now would be the time to get in shape, learn how to actual cook and prepare meals and figure out a routine that you can keep to.

    But if you’re someone like my gf, you’d rather complain about your weight and seek validation that they’re pretty than actually doing something about it.

  20. Neal is an idiot just as much as Big Orange. The whole point of the lockdowns (worldwide) was CONTROL! There is NO VIRUS. It was ALL A TOTAL LIE! NO virus has EVER caused any disease! Viruses ONLY exist IN YOUR OWN BODY! They are tools your body uses to get rid of toxins. They are NOT EVEN ALIVE! STOP promoting their lies talking about chit that doesn’t make any sense.

  21. Actually the debate about viruses being alive still goes on.

    They require a host to replicate themselves and it’s the only way for them to spread.

    Your body has bacterias, not viruses.

    Your body has an immune system, this isn’t a debate.

    I consider it to be disingenuous to claim that we don’t have them.

    Mine attacks me to death if untreated once a bee stings me.

    Stop promoting your psuedo sciences.

    It further locks you into that myopic perspectivective you’re feeding.

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