POLITICO reporting Republicans Steve Reick (63rd) and Dan Ugaste (65th) could be flipped in addition to the sixth to make it to 80
POLITICO‘s Illinois Playbook newsletter returned after a week-long plus Labor Day break, and one of its featured sections in today’s article listed the six Republican state House seats likely to flip from Republican to Democrat, and assuming Democrats hold onto their current 74 seats, will bring the Democrat supermajority to 80 seats.
So when House Speaker Mike Madigan turns 80 in the spring of 2022, he would have an 80-seat supermajority, provided he is still serving in 2022 and has not been indicted, convicted or passed on between now and then.
State Representative Allen Skillicorn (R, Sleepy Hollow) topped the list of six under the “House Races to Watch” section of today’s column. According to POLITICO:
“Republican Rep. Allen Skillicorn recently toyed with stepping aside this election season — but he told Playbook over the weekend that he’s still in the race. His waffling about running has tripped up his momentum, making the 66th District seat ripe for Democratic challenger Suzanne Ness to pick off.
The other 5 seats likely to flip along with the 66th are, in order of likelihood:
- 54th district: Incumbent Tom Morrison expected to lose to Maggie Trevor due to Joe Biden coattails in Palatine.
- 41st district: Incumbent Grant Wehrli expected to lose to Democrat challenger Janet Yang Rohr, who’s expected to be riding the coattails of both Joe Biden and Congresswoman Lauren Underwood
- 47th district: Incumbent Deanne Mazzochi expected to be defeated by Democrat Jennifer Zordani in a rematcch from 2018 won by Mazzochi by 1,500 votes. Unlike 2018, Zordani has total commitment from Madigan’s machine.
- 20th district: Incumbent Brad (son of Don) Stephens expected to win Rosemont but likely to lose in the Chicago area of the district.
- 42nd district: Incumbent Amy Grant expected to lose to Democrat challenger Ken Mejia-Beal, who is a Leftist progressive who’ll excite the Democrat base.
In addition to the six seats previously listed to take Madigan’s supermajority to 80, the House Democrats are listing four additional seats as “stretch goals to flip” and flipping the seat hinges on support for President Trump in the districts of Republican incumbents John Cabello, Steve Reick, Norine Hammond, and Dan Ugaste.
Given the Reick (63rd) is entirely in McHenry County and Ugaste (65th) has small part within the county, both districts are within the 14th congressional district, and both Democrat challengers are on the Lauren Underwood Farm Team PAC.
Put another way, Reick’s and Ugaste’s reelection chances hinges on Republican congressional nominee Jim Oberweis, to supplement the top of the ticket of President Trump and U.S. Senate nominee Mark Curran to motivate Republican voters to turnout and protect these seats.
The entire POLITICO story, including details on fundraising, can be viewed here.
It’ll be interesting to see if Skillicorn, Reick and Ugaste will be at the Huntley candidates event the Republican Party is hosting tomorrow afternoon in Huntley.
Will more Democrats lead to more of this?
Chicago violence: 51 shot, 10 fatally, most over Labor Day weekend since 2016
Winning?
Unpopular opinion/prediction: Skillicorn will do better than Reick, and Reick definitely loses while Skillicorn’s race could go either way.
Do any of these nerds’ “models” factor in what happens when there is a candidate who is on video stumbling around drunk at a Burger King parking lot?
Do they factor in Sager’s popularity in Woodstock?
Or do they just look at a bunch of bleep bleep bloop bloop static data from past elections?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abc7chicago.com/amp/chicago-shootings-weekend-in-this/6413594/
Correcting, I would agree with you about Skillicorn until his residency situation arose when he and wife moved out of their townhome earlier this year after selling it in late May.
While he’s living in district, he currently does not own a home in district and likely will not until after the election, if he wins.
We’ll see how Ness and the Democrats play out his residency, but until he firmly reestablishes his primary home ownership within the district, he’s giving the impression he’s got one foot out the door with his current, apparent rental home in Sleepy Hollow.
Reick and Durkin are tax hikers and need to go.
Time to purge them.
Reick is a Reek.
He disparaged Trump and Wilcox.
I will not be voting in that race.
If Skillicorn loses and Reick loses both Ives and Oberweiss lose big.
But we all know how polls are don’t we.
That means Mike Madigan wins.
If Republicans are losing current seats and not gaining new seats, how does anyone expect Republicans to be viable alternatives to Democrats? ☹️
Sayitaintso is an alarmist. Sh*t candidates, like Reick, fall on their own.
There’s no domino effect with a RINO loser like Reick going down.
It’s like saying if Reick loses, Trump is doomed.
Crazy.
Eddie it’s time for a new party.
GOP is too discredited and complicit with the rot.
Oathkeeper, I agree. 😐
Part 1
In the 20th House, Republican State Representative Michael McAuliffe retired, in 2019. 😐
Bradley Stephens, Leyden Township GOP Committeeperson (also Rosemont Mayor) had the weighted votes, along with McAuliffe, Chicago GOP Committeeperson (41), to replace McAuliffe.
Obviously, Stephens was chosen. 😐
Also, Independent Alderperson Anthony Napolitano (41) only endorses cops, firefighters and paramedics.
He’s a former affiliate of CPD and CFD.
He endorsed Amee Kassem (a cop) for committeeperson, who defeated McAuliffe. 😐
Information gleaned from Russ Stewart columns.
Part 2
Madigan and Napolitano endorsed Democrat Michelle Darbro, a paramedic, over Cary Capparelli (son of longtime legislator, Ralph Capparelli).
In that primary, obviously, Darbro won. 😐
Will the Chicago Police, Firefighters and Paramedics vote for Darbro (CFD) or Stephens? 😐
Sager ruined Woodstock and wants to go down state and help Madigan put the last nail in the coffin of IL.
Woodstock is the highest raved town in the county!
Roads suck.
He gives too much taxpayer money away to corporate welfare-that’s why you see Harley, Kunes, Buss Ford and other businesses supporting Sager.
He uses taxpayer money to buy votes and I wouldn’t doubt he gets special deals from those businesses.
Reick is no prize but he won’t be as harmful as Sager will be!
Yes, a new party!
I on, I will not vote for Reick.
I will not vote for Sager.
They both suck. One figuratively, the other literally.
It’s pathetic that you’re even talking about losing 5 MORE seats (or maybe even more) after the GOP just got kicked into super minority status in the last election.
2020 should be a bounce-back year for them, yet they’re expected to lose even more seats…
This “Republican” Party is proving itself to not be viable in Illinois.
We need an alternative, a real alternative, to the Democrats…
BRING BACK THE WHIGS!
Correcting, all of this in Illinois is proving Geneva-based blogger/author/political consultant Jeff Ward right.
He predicted Republicans would get shellacked in Illinois in 2020 because of President Trump, and then make a comeback in 2022 after the Democrats take over everything and screw everything up.
He also predicted Lauren Underwood would win reelection by 10 points and 2020 would be the year of the liberal woman.
Most of his predictions are usually accurate as the 62 year old Ward has been around the block.
Most of his predictions were made in late 2018, though he predicted Skillicorn would win his November reelection back in late March.
Though lately, because of all the violence, he’s hedging on his Trump losing prediction.
We’ll see if Ward is right in next 55 days.
Something tells me Madigan will be indicted before that happens.
We have to take our state back or we have to leave, there is no middle ground.
Political white privilege has to go.
If the feds wanted to induct The Daleys, Mike Madigan and Ed Burke, it’d happen by now. ☹️
Stormy, given all but a few Democrats have put the disclaimer “if it’s true” for Madigan to resign his elected and party leadership positions, nothing short of a conviction, or Madigan’s demise, will force the 78 year old to be out of Illinois politics, permanently.
An indictment is not going to do it, and Madigan has enough political clout that IL House Democrats will not force him out of the speakership until AFTER the 2021 congressional, legislative and representative reapportionment is approved.
Madigan wants to leave one lasting legacy after he’s gone, and the 2021 reapportionment is it.
My guess, he’ll wait until after his 80th birthday in spring of 2022 to announce his retirement, then choose his successor for the November 2022 ballot.
Singing and politicking keeps Amy Grant busy. 😁
Skillicorn is a coward and fraud for running away from constituents and his sworn responsibilities, and failing to leave office with any shred of grace and dignity.
Instead, he’s a black hole – and completely undeserving of another term.
His ousting is LOOOOOOOONG overdue.
“If the feds wanted to induct The Daleys, Mike Madigan and Ed Burke, it’d happen by now.”
I wouldn’t put it past Trump to wait until it’s closer to the election and make a show of it if they do have the dirt on them.
That would be completely fitting with his personality and style.
I also think that this election is going to be unique in that it is going to come down to a very basic choice between two systems not the actual candidates.
This is most obvious in the presidential race but will effect all of them.
If people come out and choose socialism, they are going to pretty much vote all democratic.
Those against socialism will vote straight republican.
That is what November is really about.
There will be very little split ticket voting this time around.
@Lopez, time will tell who will be more correct….
IMHO the FBI has their marching orders from Soros, take down white privileged (alleged) crooked politicians and replace them with other lawless softies who will open the floodgates even more.
Neal and John, you’re probably right. 😐
Mr. Belcher,
Skillicorn is a hero and real Republican who fights for traditional values and fights the tax pigs and Lgbtq termites, like you.
He’s a great asset – and completely deserving of another term.
His ousting is LOOOOOOOONG overdue.
IF YOU WANT TO KEEP YOUR FREEDOMS AND DON’T WANT ANOTHER MADIGAN CRONY – VOTE ALLEN SKILLICORN!
Skillicorn is honest and thinks rationally.
Ness is dishonest and part of the sickness gripping Illinois.
I don’t give a hoot about Reick’s DUI.
He’s an apologist for BLM, is a taxhiker, and thoroughly supports the homosexual agenda. Plus a never-Trumper and Covid hysteric.
Gloria — There are no “real Republicans” anymore, because the party sold out on every single American value that was championed for the last 40-50 years!!
Read that again and again if it fails to sink in.
The old “GOP” values absolutely nothing.
I voted GOP for 40+ years, but this go around, i’m done.
I hate voting Democratic but the GOP has left me no choice.
You and others like you have obviously compromised all that’s important to you, but at least you have a gun to kill the very lives you claim to defend.
WTG, Madame Sellout. Some “patriot”. ROTFLMAO.
I don’t believe for one second that Bob Belcher voted Republican for forty years and now will vote for the Communists when they have gone full fascist.
I do believe you’ll be voting for the Communists, I just don’t believe you’ve ever opposed them.
Skillicorn is a walking joke in Springfield.
You might as well send Howdy Doody to represent you, at least he MIGHT get a bill passed…
Gee Chase, aren’t you an ignorant flaming heap of dung! The commies bought the election for your Orange Führer and you call Democrats commies?
Hard to tell which part of your body spews more fecal mass: your brain or your backside.