As September 30 fundraising deadline looms, more evidence Chicago suburbs written off by national groups
The end of the Federal Election Commission (FEC) 3rd quarter fundraising period is a week and a half away. The 3rd quarter will be one of two FEC filings congressional candidates will do prior to November 3, with July 1 – September 30 campaign disclosure reports due on October 15.
A week later, the Pre-election FEC filings will be published showing fundraising and spending from October 1st through 14th, and are due for publication on October 22.
Unless the Republican nominees in the 6th and 14th show significant cash being raised in the 3rd quarter, it will all but confirm the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), and the large super PACs like the Congressional Leadership Fund and Club for Growth have written off the two originally targeted Chicago suburban districts.
Here’s how the fundraising looked at the end of the 2nd quarter, per FEC filings:
Since entering the home stretch of the 2020 elections after Labor Day, the disparity in 2nd quarter cash on hand shows:
- 6th district:
- Jeanne Ives TV commercial for a one week cable TV ad buy ending on September 23, right before vote-by-mail ballots hit the streets
- Congressman Sean Casten announced a $2.4 million broadcast and cable TV ad buy from September 16 to Election Day
- 14th district:
- Congresswoman Lauren Underwood began airing her “Everywhere” TV commercial on cable TV buy
- Jim Oberweis is “dark”, meaning he is not on TV
And in Oberweis’ case, everyone is waiting for him to write one of his million dollar checks, but thus far, he has not done so. Apart from a good mailer/comparison piece that hit the streets last weekend, no other mailing has surfaced for Oberweis, though one of his “newspaper” mailings is expected to hit the streets, possibly this weekend.
Additionally, on social media, Oberweis’ Facebook page is pushing a “NO” vote on the graduated income tax, but very little substance about his congressional campaign. While it is known Oberweis is doing aggressive door-to-door, and Underwood’s campaign thus far has run a virtual campaign, Oberweis will not be competitive until he is running effective TV commercials on broadcast TV.
So where is the NRCC? Watching the Independent Expenditure (IE) filings, their monies are going elsewhere across the country, as this tweet from the California Target Book shows an NRCC IE for 11 congressional districts filed yesterday:
Of the 11 congressional districts cited on the opposition IEs totaling just under $3.9 million, 5 are seats to defend, and 6 are prime seats to flip. The only 3 seats in the Midwest are the three in Iowa, two with Democrat freshmen women, and a third open.
Problem for the NRCC, Republican-held seats have become very competitive that a year ago were not thought to be competitive, including (but not included on the above IE):
- The Virginia 5th district, where Cook Political announced its ratings change to toss-up in a district that was seen as Likely Republican over the summer. This was the district where Republican delegates to the nominating convention denied Congressman Denver Riggleman the renomination because he presided over the gay marriage ceremony of two of his former campaign aides. Nominee Bob Good has not unified the Republicans and Democrats nominated at their 4-way primary Millennial Dr. Cameron Webb from the school of medicine from the University of Virginia Charlottesville, who is seen as a male, M.D. version of Lauren Underwood.
- The Colorado 3rd district, where insurgent Republican Millennial Momma Bear Lauren Boebert unseated 4-term incumbent Congressman Scott Tipton in the late June primary, and this seat went from “Safe Republican” to “Leans Republican”, with Cook Political announcing the latest rating change today.
- Texas, multiple Republican held congressional seats have become competitive in the last few months, including three in the Dallas/Ft. Worth suburbs, southwestern Houston district and Congressman Chip Roy’s seat in exurban San Antonio. NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved millions in TV ad buys in Dallas/Ft. Worth, Houston and San Antonio media markets.
The NRCC will put higher priority defending vulnerable Republicans opposed to flipping a Democrat-held seat, and at this stage of the campaign, there are more vulnerable Republicans then originally thought there would be back in the spring.
Finally, Independent Expenditures in the 6th and 14th district for the General Election have been there, but not near the level to buy TV advertising. Supportive IEs per district totals:
- 6th: $96,184
- 14th: $68,373
The amounts above have been given as IEs throughout the time since the March primary, predominately from the House Freedom Fund for digital advertising/marketing.
But unless the Ives or Oberweis polling numbers improve significantly, and only broadcast TV ad buys move polling fast, look for NRCC and the larger super PACs to continue to sit out the 6th and 14th.
Oberweis can tap into his own bank Acct.
Ives needs the moolah more.