IL-14: First General Election Independent Expenditure TV Ad Against Jim Oberweis *UPDATE: Oberweis Campaign Responds

Jim Oberweis

Most visible sign to date the 14th is competitive and Lauren Underwood is in trouble and $560K to indirectly help fight back

Tuesday morning, the House Majority super PAC, the Democrat version of the Congressional Leadership Fund and funded by George Soros, announced it was spending an Independent Expenditure (IE) of $560,000 in opposition to Republican congressional candidate Jim Oberweis.

This is the super PAC’s first spending this year in the 14th district, and displays concerns over internal polling showing the race between Oberweis and freshman Congresswoman Lauren Underwood is close.

Per the statement this morning from House Majority super PAC:

“House Majority PAC is launching its first ad in Illinois’ 14th District, detailing all the important health care policies that Jim Oberweis has said he’s against.

“Illinois families elected Lauren Underwood because they wanted to expand access to affordable health care, and Jim Oberweis has made it clear he’d make it harder for families with preexisting conditions to get coverage and he would eliminate the All Kids health insurance program.”

House Majority PAC statement 10/20/20


The 30 second TV ad on broadcast TV is titled “Against”:

COMMENTARY: Most visible sign yet the 14th district is close. Make no mistake, Jim Oberweis can win this race.

Late last week, Geneva-based political consultant and fellow blogger Jeff N. Ward, accurately predicted Underwood’s messaging was astray, first without firmly and wholeheartedly condemning violence, including rioting and looting at the Chicago Sun-Times editorial board interview on September 3.

He also said the following about Underwood:

“Her categorically poor messaging is particularly distressing considering the Underwood ground game is one of the very best!

“Sadly, she’s bound and determined to prove that ‘there’s just one way to win an election, and a thousand ways to lose it.’

“It’s kinda like being the fastest sprinter on the planet who never made it to the Olympics because they harbored a strange propensity to run into the nearest wall.

“And I had high re-electoral hopes for her, too! Her initial TV commercial clearly indicated her team finally understood they had to appeal to receptive female Republican Illinois 14th Congressional District voters to win. How difficult could it be to out-message a badly damaged and perennially poor candidate like Jim Oberweis – especially when it comes to women!

“But because they lack that keen perception of the obvious, her campaign consented to a series of pro teacher union mailers that will most certainly cost her votes in that Republican district. To make matters worse, those mailers only went to teachers! Anyone with half a brain knows that no self-respecting (mostly female) educator would be caught dead voting for the likes of my good friend Jim!

“So, now the opposition can attack her for being bought and sold by the unions at time when Illinois’ deepening fiscal abyss is primarily the result of union pensions.”

Jeff N. Ward, 10/14/20, “Campaign Lesson #6: Messaging is Paramount”


But make no mistake. Underwood’s honesty, or lack of it, has caught up to her. Her half-hearted statements saying violence should not be used to resolve problems have mainstream voters in the 14th district seeing through her.

So in the last two weeks, and I just viewed the “Against” ad for the first time during the 5PM local news on WLS-TV along with Underwood’s “Darcy” positive ad, the stakes have gone up and Oberweis can win and flip the seat in two weeks.

Jim Oberweis

UPDATE: Oberweis Campaign Responds to House Majority super PAC IE

“The big takeaway here is that Lauren Underwood is clearly in trouble.

“Her campaign has outraised and outspent the Jim Oberweis campaign by a wide margin but apparently it is not enough to close the deal with the voters she has represented for nearly two years.

“It is another example of how out of touch with this district she is.

“Voters do not want a Nancy Pelosi disciple. They want real independence and real leadership in Washington.

“There cannot be any doubt that Lauren Underwood is bought and paid for by Nancy Pelosi which is bad news for her because voters will not let Nancy Pelosi buy this district.”

Jim Oberweis Campaign Spox, 10/20/20 in response to House Majority super PAC Independent Expenditure


External references:


IL-14: First General Election Independent Expenditure TV Ad Against Jim Oberweis *UPDATE: Oberweis Campaign Responds — 29 Comments

  1. sorry John Lopez.

    Cook moves 12 house races this morning.

    I bet you expected to see IL-14 move, didn’t you?

    It did not.

    Still rated likely Dem.

    11 moved to the left (including IL-13 from lean R to toss up).

    1 moved to the right (IL-17 from likely D to lean D).

    Blue wave.

    Red bloodbath.

  2. Wrong again, Oh.

    I saw the Cook Political moves over an hour ago and already been tweeting on it. I knew it was too soon for any ratings service to change IL-14. You dialed the wrong number presupposing I expected to see an IL-14 move this soon.

    Sheesh, the Soros-backed super PAC’s FEC Form 24 has yet to hit the FEC (that should happen later today, as the attack ad already airing on TV).

    Since you brought up IL-17, let’s talk about the timing of that ratings change that was published early this morning (10/21) and events I’ve been tracking that lead up to the change. An internal poll’s executive summary leaked to the media showing Congresswoman Bustos leading Republican Esther Joy King by only 5 points on 10/13. By 10/14, Bustos has an attack ad up against King.

    By Thursday, 10/15, a 2nd poll from different pollster is released to the media showing Bustos up only 6 points.

    Just over a week, ratings change.

    The only pattern IL-14 follows is the $560K IE from the super PAC against Oberweis. Whether any polling is leaked/released to the media remains to be seen, but the fact Congresswoman Underwood’s allies are doing a big broadcast TV ad buy against Oberweis is clear proof the race is close. Don’t need a ratings change to tell me that, though it would be nice to convince super PACs to help Oberweis and spend against Underwood. We’ll see what happens.

    The Red Wave is real, and will be led by President Trump winning reelection, and some Illinois blue seats being flipped back to their rightful red, while defending the Davis seat (IL-13).

  3. I figured someone as “dialed in” as you saw this tweet from last night and went to bed dreaming of an IL-14 ratings change to the right:

    The red wave is a red bloodbath. Trump is not winning reelection. There’s nothing to indicate that he is on any path other than getting destroyed.

    Take a look at Trump’s last 24 hours: walked out of a 60 minutes interview, his secret hidden Chinese bank account has been revealed (Republicans going to be furious about this one… LOL), and he stands by everything he’s done on COVID

    Not great!

  4. Wrong again, Oh (that’s twice in one day I’ve had to say that).

    I did not see Wasserman’s tweet from early last night, and even if I did, I already knew IL-14 was too soon per the reasons stated above.

    President Trump’s rallies and his fanbase has been growing in the right directions, and the state-by-state tracking polls are tracking in the right direction. Something left out of your talk that is causing real damage to the President is the Michael Bloomberg money being spent in Florida ($100 million) that is impeding the President’s campaign in other states.

    Mainstream voters in swing states are seeing through the media bias, especially Big Tech’s decision to stifle discussion of the New York Post and Hunter Biden’s laptop. Additional Twitter restrictions put on Patriots not playing well with voters, either.

    But let’s get back to IL-14. Today, Oberweis is receiving a major endorsement, and Underwood and her supporters continue to shoot themselves in the foot, hence the super PAC’s negative IE against Oberweis.

    Real good prospects all 3 northern Illinois congressional seats targeted, IL-06, IL-14, IL-17, will be flipped in the Red Wave.

  5. What state by state tracking polls? You are making that up. The Monmouth poll today was great for Biden. The NYT/Siena polls have been good for Biden. I’m curious what polls have been good for Trump?

    The New York Post Hunter Biden story is a joke. It was so suspisios that the Fox News news division did not report on it. The Fox opinion side, obviously did. New York Post journalists even didn’t think the New York Post should have published the story. Trump’s own FBI said Rudy was the target of a Russian interference campaign.

    People don’t care about that BS. They care about the handling/mishandling of COVID, healthcare (which is tied to COVID), and the economy (which is tied to COVID). GOP has been slaughtered in every election since Nov 16. There is nothing to show that 2 weeks from now will be any different.

    You live in a right wing bubble and that bubble is about to pop. Reality going to come at you real hard. If you really believe the spin you put out here you will be devastated in two weeks.

  6. From National Journal Hotline PRESIDENTIAL POLLING ROUNDUP:

    A New York Times/Siena College poll of Georgia (Oct. 13-19; 759 LVs; +/-4.1%) found Trump and Biden tied at 45%. COMMENTARY In Georgia, Biden had a good lead, now tied.

    USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Pennsylvania (Oct. 15-19; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) found Biden leading, 49%-42%. COMMENTARY PA polling Biden in double-digits in past 2 weeks, now single-digits.

    Two Reuters/Ipsos polls showed Biden leading. In Michigan (Oct. 14-20; 686 LVs; +/-4%), Biden led, 51%-44%.
    In North Carolina (Oct. 14-20; 660 LVs; +/-4%), Biden led, 49%-46%. COMMENTARY NC is a statistical tie.

    An Eastern Carolina University poll of North Carolina (Oct. 15-18; 1,155 LVs; +/-3.4%) found Biden leading, 50%-47%. COMMENTARY Another statistical tie in the Tar Heel state from two different pollsters.

    Biden led in three Civiqs/Daily Kos polls. In Florida (Oct. 17-20; 863 LVs;+/-3.5%), Biden led, 51%-47%. COMMENTARY Another statistical tie, Bloomberg money impact.
    In Minnesota (Oct. 17-20; 840 LVs +/-3.6%), Biden led, 53%-43%.
    In Nevada (Oct. 17-20; 712 LVs; +/-5.3%) Biden led, 52%-43%.

    A poll of Arizona conducted by Scott Rasmussen for PoliticalIQ (Oct. 14-19; 800 LVs; +/-3.5%) found Biden leading, 47%-46%. COMMENTARY Another statistical tie and given Senate race polling, lot of ticket-splitters.
    A poll of Iowa conducted by InsiderAdvantage for American Greatness (Oct. 18-19; 400 LVs; +/-4.9%) found Trump and Biden tied
    An internal poll of New Mexico from Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM 03) conducted by GBAO (Oct. 14-17; 600 LVs; +/-4%) found Biden leading, 54%-41%. COMMENTARY Luján running for Senate, so he polled statewide.

    I’ve cautioned you before, Oh, don’t go and measure furniture in the White House for Biden. Biden has not put the race away, and the President is in striking distance in multiple battleground states, and his supporters usually don’t poll very well, as 2016 showed us all (what was that about GOP “slaughtered” in every election since Nov 16 — guess we have a Democrat Senate after 2018 if you were right).

    Tomorrow night’s debate will be a huge win for the President, in spite of all of the fixing the Debate Commission attempting, like taking foreign policy off the topics table.

    The President is going to win reelection, as Pat Robertson revealed from the Highest Authority yesterday morning.

  7. **as Pat Robertson revealed from the Highest Authority yesterday morning.**

    Are you serious? You have to be joking, right?

    And your polling spin is hilarious.

  8. LOL!!!! How in the world do those poll numbers show Trump with a path to winning? You’re basically conceding that Biden all but has PA and Mich locked up. Then all he’ll need to Wisconsin or AZ to win. Siena College just had him up 10 in Wisconsin. Where’s your spin on Wisconsin?

    You cite Rasmussen to show Trump down 1 in AZ but Rasmussen is a joke (they always pull to the R and were off by the most in 2018). There have been 30 polls in AZ over the last month. Only Targoz (the worst pollster out there) has shown Trump to be up in AZ.

    Explain his path to 270?

    Throw in two quality Iowa polls came out today. Both show Biden up. You can live in your fantasy land where things break hard for Trump in the next 13 days. Fine. Whatever. But you cannot say the state polls show Trump winning this race. You’re so bad at this John. Your only hope/spin should be the polls are wrong. You should not be touting the horrible state polls showing Biden winning.

    And yes the GOP did get slaughtered in 2018. The Dems were defending way more Senate seats but they crushed the House races. (Hint: That’s why you’re writing about Congresswoman Underwood.)

  9. John,

    I’d suggest that you don’t engage in debate with these two.

    They will never stop and are simply parasites that would love to suck the very life out of you.

    They are not interested in rational discussion; Only in proving that they are somehow correct in order to ease the pain of their constant lies (frankly, their entire existence).


    Someone who cares.

  10. **They are not interested in rational discussion**

    Dude. John is using Pat Robertson as a source.

    John’s spin is hilarious.

    He’s cherry-picking a few Trump-friendly polls, from states that Trump SHOULD be winning, yet are tied (or worse).

    I can’t tell if John truly doesn’t know what he is talking about, or is just willfully lying to himself and others.

  11. “I can’t tell if John truly doesn’t know what he is talking about, or is just willfully lying to himself and others.”

    I wonder the same thing. Sometimes he seems plugged in enough to look at the scoreboard and know what’s up. Other times he says crazy stuff about Pat Robertson. It’s all going to come crashing to a head so so so soon. I cannot wait to see if John admits he offered the MCB readers truly awful COMMENTARY or if he just keeps it going with the spin and looks to 2022.

  12. Some Guy,

    Your suggestion is noted, but I treat folks like you describe like a toy, say yo-yos. Fun to watch them go up and down, up and down, do some cool-looking tricks, like spin them around-the-world, rock-the-baby and especially walk-the-dog, but like a toy I played with in the 1960s, I usually leave them unraveled and walk away.

    No, people like them provide me with amusement as I answer the calling to tell the truth that has been given to me with the gifts from Above.

    Thank you for your suggestion, but I know how to take care of yo-yos.

  13. John:

    The true test of an analyst is his track record.

    You are predicting wins by Casten, Oberweis and Trump.

    If any or all three lose, will you write a column saying your conclusions were wrong?

  14. “I answer the calling to tell the truth that has been given to me with the gifts from Above.”

    John, you sound more like a publican that a re-publican.

    ““The deceitfulness of the heart of man appears in no one thing so much as this of spiritual pride and self-righteousness.”

    Jonathan Edwards, The Religious Affections

  15. You will remember that Nate Silver gave Joe Walsh’s opponent an 86% chance of losing to Melissa Bean.

    That was after a Illinois Manufacturing Association poll showing the race was close.

    Silver never wrote of his colossal mistake.

  16. Cal –

    How did Nate Silver make a mistake much less a colossal mistake?

    Do you know math works? If 100 times he writes that a certain event will happen 86% of the time, he’d be wrong if that event happened every single time. If 14 times it doesn’t happen and 86 times it does then he’s correct.

    I’m guessing you don’t understand probabilities.

  17. Cal… you’re confusing polling and projections. They’re not the same thing. And projections are based on the available data. They’re not guarantees. They’re educated guesses based on the data.

    And, yes, of course, anything can happen. In that Walsh race, the 14% chance happened.

    That doesn’t mean it is likely to happen again.

  18. Cal, the mental midgetry of self loathing looms like Alabama and Oh is kinda funny to observe.

    They have terminal TDS, which ends in flat-lining brain death.

  19. The Terminator –

    Math is hard for you too? Let me break this down:

    If every week for 100 weeks I say the New England have a 86% chance of winning that week, and they win 86 games and lose 14 games, then I’m right!

    If every week for 100 weeks I say the New England have a 86% chance of winning that week, and they win 99 games and lose 1 game, then I’m off by 13%!

    If every week for 100 weeks I say the New England have a 86% chance of winning that week, and they win 50 games and lose 50 game, then I’m off by even more, 36%!

    If in 100 different races Nate Silver gives a certain candidate an 86% chance of winning but in those races the favored candidate wins 100 out of 100 times, then Nate Silver has underestimated those chances.

    Now if Nate Silver said: “Joe Walsh will win” but Joe Walsh loses, then Nate Silver was wrong.

    Cal (and you) either (a) don’t understand math and probabilities or (b) think he said something that he did not say like, “Joe Walsh has a 100% chance of winning.”

    I guess in these times of “hot takes” and everyone who is in the prediction has to be certain of their predictions, it’s easy to see why you and Cal cannot understand simple concepts in math. Or maybe it’s you guys didn’t do well in school and struggled in math class. But learning can be fun and hopefully you learned something new today, Terminator!

  20. The prediction of Nate Silver was for 2010, when Joe Walsh beat Melissa Bean.

  21. Just pointing out he made a big mistake and never fessed up to it.

  22. Cal – I’m just pointing out that you don’t understand how math works and you misunderstood/misinterpreted what he said

  23. Just pointing out that he didn’t make a mistake, because that is not how projections and probability work.

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