In her report to the McHenry County Board of Health, Public Health Administrator Melissa Adamson predicted that McHenry County will be treated like Kane, DuPage and Will Counties “by the end of the week.”
“I think it’s a matter of when, rather than if,” she said, pointing to the higher infection rates in all counties surrounding McHenry County, including those in Wisconsin.
“It’s all around us.
“We are well into our second wave.”
Later in the meeting, she pointed out that McHenry County has had only six Coronavirus deathssince July.
The departmental dashboard shows a recovery rate of 97% with 120 deaths.
I haven’t looked at the web site since the Department stopped publishing test results and deaths on a daily basis.
Looking at it now, I see that Crystal Lake’s 60014 zip code now exceeds Woodstock in number of identified cases.
The distribution of cases by age shows a shift to younger folks:
The number of cases by day are reported below:
As Adamson noted, there have only been six deaths since July:
The details are
- a man in his 20’s
- 2 men in their 60’s
- a woman in his 60’s
The following is worth reading because it tells whcn Governor JB Pritzker will impose the next level of pergatory:
COVID-19 Resurgence Criteria
IDPH is monitoring key indicators to identify early but significant increases of COVID-19 transmission in Illinois, potentially signifying resurgence. These indicators are calculated for eleven newly described Illinois regions. IDPH will monitor if these indicators show an increase in COVID-19 disease burden with a simultaneous decrease in hospital capacity OR if there are three consecutive days greater than or equal to 8% test positivity rate (7 day rolling). These indicators can be used to determine whether additional community mitigation interventions are needed for a region to control the further spread of COVID-19. To view the regional level metrics being used by IDPH, please click https://www.dph.illinois.gov/regionmetrics.
MCDH has calculated local versions of these regional metrics. These county level metrics use the same methodology and benchmarks as the Illinois Regional COVID-19 Resurgence Criteria. To best account for lag time, the statistics reflect the data as of 3-days prior to the current date.
Daily Test Positivity
The daily test positivity data represents data reported through Electronic Laboratory Reporting (ELR) only.
It is based on the date results reported into the ELR. It excludes testing data that are received from sites that have not implemented ELR. This excludes 3-5% of test data.
Each day, an average number (over the last 7 days) of COVID-19 positive tests is calculated and rounded to one decimal place.
Seven-day test positivity=100 x(county positive tests for 7 days)/(county total tests for the same 7 days)
Whenever the test positivity increases from the previous day, it is flagged.
If the county experiences fewer than 7 days in the last 10 with a daily increase in the 7-day average test positivity, the county is at a target level.
If there are seven or more days in the last 10 days with a daily increase in the 7-day average test positivity, this would indicate warning levels.
As of 10/21/2020, MCDH has decided to present the positivity statistics provided by IDPH.
Although MCDH has complete confidence in the methodology it has been using, the health department has decided to utilize the same data as IDPH to stay consistent with how the State is interpreting and measuring positivity.
The original reason for imposing restrictions was to “flatten the curve,” so there would be adequate beds to treat sick patients.
As you can see below, there is no shortage of local hospital beds.
The goal, keep in mind, is that 20% of the beds will be available.
Adamson said that a request has been made to treat McHenry County differently, but it was denied.
Rather than one size fits all, the message from the Illinois Department of Public Health was,
“It’s going to look like this and we’re going to tell what it looks like.’
In other business, the Board elected officers for the coming year:
- Cindy Gaffney, President
- William Stinson, Vice President
- Juliana Morawski, Secretary
- Kyle Marcussen, Treasurer
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The meeting was held in the County Board room where it is possible to broadcast the proceedings.
That does not currently occur and, to the best of my knowledge, no recording of meetings is made public.
This lack of transparency in this time when public health is a major concern disturbs me.