IL-14: Simpler Reason Why Jim Oberweis on Threshold of Winning

Jim Oberweis
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

And of all people, AOC closer to the truth on Underwood seat about to be flipped

Cal posted an article comparing the campaigns of Republicans Jim Oberweis and Jeanne Ives against their respective opponents, Congresswoman Lauren Underwood and Congressman Sean Casten.

While Ives has already conceded to Casten and the Associated Press (AP) has called the race, Oberweis currently leads Underwood by a mere 628 votes as of late Thursday, with over, depending on whom you believe 5,000 to 20,000 VBM ballots to be counted.

While the messaging Cal compared, in mailers played a part, as well as the fact the IL-14 is more conservative than the more blue IL-06, particularly in DuPage County as well as Libertarian Bill Redpath siphoned some votes away from Ives in a few places, there’s a simpler reason why Oberweis potentially could win.

And of all people, it was Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) who included this quote in a mutli-tweet message this morning:

“Also, the decision to stop knocking doors is one people need to grapple with and analyze.”

AOC tweet 11/6/20
Abigail Spanberger

AOC’s 11-tweet message was a response to many centrist Democrats who, through a leaked House Democrats conference call, were livid at the losses House Democrats took on Tuesday in races that have been called by the AP.

Additionally, many Democratic incumbents, including Underwood, are currently losing in their reelection bids. While the Democrats will likely retain the majority in the House, it could very well be the smallest House majority, by as few as 5-7 seats, in history.

The leaked conference call from Thursday included feedback from Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-07), a genuine centrist who was declared the winner in her reelection over Republican Nick Freitas. Spanberger is one of a few House Democrats who actually has a centrist voting record to back up the label, and was one of 6 Democrats who voted against Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker.

On Thursday, she said:

“We need to not ever use the word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again. . . . We lost good members because of that.”

“If we are classifying Tuesday as a success . . . we will get f—ing torn apart in 2022.”

Abigail Spanberger, “Centrist House Democrats lash out at liberal colleagues, blame far-left views for costing the party seats”, The Washington Post 11/5/20
Lauren Underwood

While AOC and Spanberger, without naming each other, fought over ideology, AOC pointing to decisions by many Democrat incumbents, including Underwood, to forgo grassroots, door-to-door campaigning, may be the real reason the IL-14 is so close.

Oberweis, in his effectively branded “Oberweis for Congress” face mask, did not ever abandon door-to-door campaigning by both himself, and numerous volunteers, across the 14th district.

Drive-thru rallies and virtual events cannot replace the person-to-person connection a candidate can have with voters, especially voters who are not afraid to split their tickets.

One thing a mainstream voter more likely to do at the voting booth, or filling out a VBM ballot at home, is remember which candidate or their volunteers came to their door asking for their vote.

And quite frankly, voters like and respect a candidate, or their volunteers who literally go the extra miles to see them, socially distant, at their door asking for support.

As returns made public thus far indicate, Oberweis’ best counties are McHenry and Lake counties, the largest and 3rd largest counties in the district.

Should Oberweis’ support hold through VBM ballots from McHenry and Lake, he will be declared the winner when the counting stops on November 24 and what put him over and sent him to Washington was good old-fashioned shoe leather.


IL-14: Simpler Reason Why Jim Oberweis on Threshold of Winning — 12 Comments

  1. Even without China Corona, there’s no way a candidate can visit every home and apartment, neither can volunteers.

    Looking at the current size of the 6th CD and 14th CD, it’s impossible. ☹️🤔

  2. Eddie, you are right, and if the returns thus far are any indication, McHenry and Lake counties is where Oberweis and his campaign volunteers, spent the bulk of the time going door-to-door.

    Then again, that’s also what Republican precinct committeepersons are to do, along with all of their volunteers and the reason for political parties in the first place.

  3. Hi John, you’re correct too. 🙂

    Oberweis still had DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall and Will Counties to cover too. 😐

  4. this would have Never have happened if Catalina won the primary.

    This would have been a landslide for her!

    Shame on Jim for putting his ego before country

  5. Jen, I completely disagree with you.

    And a reminder, Catalina Lauf finished 3rd in the primary, so it wasn’t just Jim Oberweis winning and finishing ahead of her.

    Honestly, given how the national Republicans, in spite of flawed polling the ratings services missed, abandoned IL-14, and they were not pulling for Lauf. The fact Oberweis could afford to self-fund his TV ad buys and much of his campaign, confirms why Oberweis won the primary in the first place.

    Look at other Millennial women across the country, like Anna Paulina Luna and Aliscia Andrews.

    Both lost their respective races in FL-13 and VA-10 after impressive wins for their nominations, particularly Luna over multiple good candidates in her primary in August.

    Andrews won a nominating convention, not a primary, in June.

    I know some will point to Lauren Boebert (CO-03) upset of 4-term incumbent Republican in primary as in Lauf’s favor, but Boebert is a successful small business owner, a wife and mother of 4 sons, so her life experiences convinced voters she could do the job.

    Lauf has no significant life experiences like that (yet), or military service that helped both Luna and Andrews win their respective primaries.

    No, I don’t accept Lauf would have been competitive let alone won this year.

    The money people in DC wanted either Sue Rezin or Ted Gradel, and they would have spent $$$ in IL-14 if either one of them were the nominees.

    Lauf was not in that group, and Oberweis wasn’t either.

    An Oberweis win will put an exclamation point on how wrong those money people were and a point Lauf, this year, would not be able to place.

    Some day, very likely, but not in 2020.

  6. I’ve got my fingers crossed that “fake nurse” is history, though probably short term for now.

  7. Jim won in Kendall!

    We canvassed all over for him! PC’s and volunteers!

    The only County he got beat in that I know of is Will and maybe Kane.

    But I can tell you this as a PC and volunteer for Jim.

    We worked hard, did a lot of canvassing and food drives.

    Underwood made a cook book!

    People want action and leadership and Jim delivered!

    I predict he wins by 2500-3000 votes.

  8. **I predict he wins by 2500-3000 votes.**

    I’d love to see your math.

    ** The only County he got beat in that I know of is Will and maybe Kane. **

    He lost Dupage, Kane, and Will.

    He is barely winning in Kendall.

    And Lake still has a ton of VBM ballots to count.

  9. After waffling for months on Madigan’s role in the Illinois Democratic Party and the Illinois House of Representatives, Pritzker, Duckworth, and Durbin have said Madigan should leave.

    No political courage whatsoever.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *