Politico Thinks Underwood in Danger from Redistricting

From Politico:

Reps. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.)

Democrats will again have total control over the crafting of Illinois’s congressional map — and, if possible, they’ll want to take out GOPRep. Rodney Davis. In 2011, mapmakers had to protect then-Democratic Rep. Jerry Costello, who held a seat to the south of Davis that has since moved away from the party.

If Democrats give some of East St. Louis to Davis, he could be in much more competitive territory.

But Democrats will have to be careful: Illinois is on track to drop a district, and Reps. Cheri Bustos and Lauren Underwood, who just barely survived their own 2020 reelections, could struggle to find enough Democratic-friendly voters in northern Illinois to secure them both.

Agree or disagree?


Comments

Politico Thinks Underwood in Danger from Redistricting — 19 Comments

  1. I hear they want to get rid of the 15th district.

    That’s downstate.

    I keep hearing about making Rodney Davis’s district (13th) easier for Democrats win, but that doesn’t make sense. With the 15th district dissolving, you’d think the districts close by it (which are also Republican) would end up absorbing it and becoming redder.

    I don’t follow the thinking there…

    As for Underwood, no, Democrats are aware of her vulnerability and they will draw her a district that’s at least as safe as the one she’s in now even if that means making things a little tougher for someone like Casten or another Democrat (think about it: they have more wiggle room).

    I say disagree overall.

    The Democrats aren’t going to stick their neck out for Betsy Dirksen Londrigan if that means risking Cheri Bustos and Lauren Underwood.

    That’s like trading two gold bars for one silver bar.

    Democrats will make sure to draw nice districts for Bustos and Underwood.

  2. Underpass needs to have her head deloused.

    Then she needs a course in logic, then English, then some basic math.

    She is a cardboard cutout who couldn’t make it in the real world.

    And she’s pretty dumb, too.

    I should know, I’ve talked to her.

  3. Had exchanges on Monday on Twitter over the Ally Mutnick POLITICO article about redistricting changes.

    The only thing Mutnick got right was the fact Illinois Democrats will control the congressional remap along with the General Assembly remap.

    Mike Madigan and his people knows what he’s doing when it comes to maps, and in spite of press reports to the contrary, Madigan will either be House Speaker, or his own person will be in charge of the remap.

    Last month, Cook Political Report U.S. House Editor Dave Wasserman drew a map of Illinois with 17 House districts, which was published here: http://mchenrycountyblog.com/2020/11/12/map111220/

    His map, using voting data (not 2020 census data) showed IL-13, IL-14 and IL-17 being transformed from Trump ’16 districts into Clinton ’16 districts, which would make them more Democrat.

    But IL Democrats will not be listening to Dave Wasserman or anyone outside of their circle.

    Recalling past Remaps at congressional levels, the rules Democrats will use are:

    – Seniority rules
    – Do no Democrat harm
    – Eliminate Republican district(s) only
    – Freshmen fall first

    One rule that’s not listed is what an incumbent member of Congress wants in the remap, district guaranteeing 80%+ victory.

    That won’t happen, but that is an incumbent Congressperson’s wish for their new district.

    Another common sense rule will not apply – upcoming retirements.

    Should a district be eliminated/changed/consolidated if a member is expected to retire.

    Several Democrats are well into their seventies (Rush, Davis, Shackowsky) but those districts will not be changed as they’re senior Democrats.

    Usually, that would not apply to Republicans, especially with Kinzinger’s IL-16 as he is likely to run statewide in 2022, opening up his district, but usually, the Democrats will not eliminate his district on assumption he’s running statewide in 2022.

    Going by the rules, Congresswoman-elect Mary Miller’s IL-15 would be first district to go, as Correcting pointed out.

    The problem is geography.

    The Wasserman map chopped up Kinzinger’s district combining it with the 2nd, 11th and redrawn 15th that stretches north of I-80.

    That approach might be the way IL-15 is altered significantly, and Kinzinger running statewide eliminates the need for an incumbent Republican vs. incumbent Republican primary in 2022.

    No matter which approach, there is NO WAY the Democrats will allow for McHenry County to dominate ANY congressional district the way it dominated the 14th, especially this year.

    The Democrats will dilute McHenry County’s predominately Republican voting strength by chopping up the population centers 3 ways.

    Wasserman had McHenry and Nunda townships in the 9th district, most of Algonquin and all Grafton townships into the 8th district and the rest in an expanded 14th district that would include all of DeKalb County, which includes the college town of DeKalb (NIU).

    While the NIU inclusion is a certainty, making the 14th MORE Democrat begins to violate the above Democrat rules, because Wasserman had the 14th absorbing all of the Kane and DuPage portions of the city of Aurora, a heavily Democrat area AT THE EXPENSE of Bill Foster, who just won his 7th term in the House, 5th straight in the 11th district (his 1st 2 terms were in the 14th, 2008 until 2011).

    Hurting Foster, who’s into his 60s to help Underwood would violate one of the Democrats’ unwritten rules.

    Doubtful they’ll do that.

    We’ll see what creativity Madigan uses to protect Underwood, as well as to begin building the bench for Underwood’s replacement in the coming decade.

    Probably won’t see a map draft until the early spring, post March 31.

  4. Rush’s (1), Kelly’s (2) and Davis’ (7) congressional districts must be drawn as Black majority, despite “many” Blacks moving elsewhere. 😐

  5. John, how do Hispanics factor with the upcoming Illinois congressional remap?

    Will Hispanics desire a second congressional district, outside the current Chicago based 4th? 🤔🔔

  6. Excellent post John about all the redistricting possibilities.

    Of course all of this just shows us how screwed Illinois is since the democrats will always tweak things in their favor The only hope is that the passive democrat voters who just check off whoever has the D next to their name start to get sick of the eternal corruption.

  7. **Of course all of this just shows us how screwed Illinois is since the democrats will always tweak things in their favor **

    First, let me say up front that you’re not wrong here.

    This is what the Democrats will do, and I support an independent map process.

    But do you also say the same thing about WI and OH and IN and TX and a bunch of other Republican-controlled states that have Republican-tilted gerrymandered maps? Are they corrupt too?

  8. And all those states AlabamaShake brought up do not use an independent commission to oversee the congressional remap like the state of Iowa does.

    WI will be different because the governor is a Democrat, so it will be a compromise map.

    Eddie, being Hispanic myself, I do believe a 2nd predominately Hispanic district would be in order, provided the population will support it.

    The current 8th district, it is clear an Hispanic is part of the succession planning when Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi decides to run for something else, likely U.S. Senate and very likely in 2022 if Senator Duckworth leaves to join Joe Biden’s cabinet.

    As AlabamaShake pointed out previously, Raja would likely not get a Governor Pritzker appointment.

    There’s no guarantee State Senator Cristina Castro (D, Elgin) would win, but Elgin dominates that district and the large Hispanic population can only help her.

    She’s been an elected official since 2008 (Kane County Board), and will be starting her 2nd state senate term next month.

    If the Wasserman map with the city of Aurora becoming part of the 14th, combined with the Hispanic population of West Chicago, there is a strong possibility an Hispanic could be elected when Underwood decides to move on to something else, many believe U.S. Senate when Dick Durbin calls it a career in 2026.

    That’s one of the most logical reasons to add Aurora, but as I pointed out above, that would hurt Bill Foster, unless Foster keeps Aurora and his succession planning includes one of the younger state legislators, like Barbara Hernandez.

    And can’t count out Linda Chapa-LaVia moving out of Pritzker’s administration as Veterans Affairs director.

    That’s similar to what Duckworth did when she ran for Congress back in 2012, though Chapa-LaVia is well into her 50s.

  9. Ha – there’s no way Chapa LaVia is winning any election after the ongoing LaSalle veterans home debacle.

    Also, while your minor obsession with succession plans and state legislators becoming Congresscritters is interesting, it is noteworthy to point out that of the 13 members of the Dem Congressional delegation, I believe only 3 were members of the state legislature (Schakowsky, Kelly, Garcia) prior to joining Congress.

  10. I do not agree with gerrymandering by either side.

    I consider myself really an independent, the only reason I strongly support the republicans at the moment is because all of the democratic party leaders have gone completely insane.

  11. You didn’t answer the question – are the WI Republicans corrupt?

    OH Republicans?

    Do you support their legislative maps?

    Or is it just the Democratic-drawn IL map that you oppose and call corrupt?

  12. AlabamaShake, I’d have to look those states up. 🙂

    Ex-Ohio Republican State Representative Wesley Goodman cheated on his wife with men, while being anti-gay publicly. Is that corruption? 🤔😮

    I feel almost any IL remap will be corrupt, in some way. 😐

  13. I don’t know enough about them but I would assume they are probably up to the same games.

    If the republicans in those states are doing the same thing the democrats here are doing then yes I would say they are corrupt.

    Again I don’t know enough about thier states politics to say for sure.

    I think we have corruption on both sides of the aisle and that needs to be dealt with.

    That’s exactly what got Trump elected in 2016, he wasn’t part of the machine and people are fed up with the corruption.

    Just wait and see, Biden is the absolute worst man for this moment in history.

    The Trump supporters hate him, the far left hates him.

    He will be a weak president with 75% of the country not supporting him.

    Just watch how quickly the progressives turn on him, he is picking major establishment people for posts and they will not like it.

  14. Technically, Trump lost the popular vote.

    We don’t know which Electors selected him in the Electoral College. 🤔😮🔔

  15. Eddie you know better.

    I said Trump was elected president in 2016.

    That is 100% true.

    The popular vote has nothing at all to do with who becomes president.

    We are not a democracy and we don’t rule by the 51%

  16. Neal, I couldn’t resist. 😁

    But you mentioned anti-machine and corruption.

    Did the EC consider those items?

    Must be.
    🙂

  17. The purpose of the EC is to provide protection against mob rule and to keep the larger states from dominating.

    Issues such as how the electors are selected are solely the responsibility of the state legislators.

    Technically they do not even have to let you vote for presidential electors.

    The Illinois GA could tomorrow decide that they will pick all future electors themselves and it would be constitutional.

    Remember that the federal government is not supposed to have as much power as it currently does.

    If we were doing it right it would matter little who is the president.

  18. Dan Savage says *Size doesn’t matter.”. 😁😂🤣

    Seriously, in a presidential (s)election, the size of a state shouldn’t matter.

    We are all Americans, but our country functions as 50 states arguing states’ rights, instead of being unified. ☹️

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