Sean Casten and Lauren Underwood returning to 2nd terms with 12-13 fewer of their Democrat colleagues who sought reelection
McHenry County Blog UPDATE 12/2: Article updated with following changes:
- Republicans declared official or projected winner in 2 districts, bringing U.S. House for 117th Congress to 222 Democrats, 212 Republicans
- CA-25 called by AP on Dec 1 for Republican Congressman Mike Garcia as projected winner after Democratic opponent conceded
- IA-02 officially called for Dr. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by Iowa Canvassing Board
- NY-22 last undecided U.S. House race now has Republican challenger Claudia Tenney leading freshman Democrat Congressman Anthony Brindisi by 12 votes with judge to rule on Monday on over 2,000 challenged ballots, including 55 in-person early voting ballots that were “mislaid” by one of the county’s board of elections discovered on Monday.
As the Illinois State Board of Election prepares to certify election results on Friday, none of Illinois’ U.S. House seats appeared to have flipped, with only Congresswoman-elect Marie Newman (D, IL-03) being the only freshman member of the House in the Illinois delegation.
The big, high-dollar race in Illinois’ 13th district rematch from 2018 was won by incumbent Republican Congressman Rodney Davis by nearly 20,000 votes after an estimated $20 million spent by both candidates and super PACs.
As the Illinois delegation prepares for the swearing-in on January 3rd to inaugurate the 117th Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D, CA-12) is ready to be elected to her 4th and final term as Speaker of the House. Two weeks ago, she strongly hinted to the press the 117th Congress would be her last term as Speaker.
Her House Democrat majority will be much smaller in the 117th Congress from the 36-seat majority she held at the beginning of the 116th:
- Going into November election:
- Democrats: 233 (Republicans flipped 2 seats with party switch and winning May special election)
- Republicans: 201 (Republicans won the vacant NC-09 special election)
- Libertarian: 1 (Republican-turned-independent-turned Libertarian Justin Amash)
- (includes vacant seats held by party)
- November election results through Tuesday, 12/1:
- Democrats: 222
- Republicans: 212
- Race too close to call: 1
- NY-22: Republican Claudia Tenney leads Democrat Congressman Anthony Brindisi leads by 12 votes (court to decide on Monday on remaining 2,000+ uncounted challenged ballots)
So the last House race currently has a Republican leading incumbent Democrat by 12 votes and 55 ballots reappearing nearly 1 month after election, 44 are countable, per the above article.
Such is 2020.
Thus far, Republicans have flipped 14 seats, including the open Libertarian seat held by Republican-turned-independent-turned-Libertarian 5-term Congressman Justin Amash (MI-03). Guess one could call this particular Republican-flip as an “unearned” flip.
Democrats have flipped 3 open seats: NC-02, NC-06 and GA-07
The two NC Democrat flips can be called “unearned” since a court-ordered redistricting mandated the 2020 districts be solidly Democrat, but they count as flips.
With the exception of the unearned open MI-03 flip by Congressman-elect Peter Meijer (R), the defeat of 12 Democrat incumbents came at the hands of Republican women and/or people of color.
Some of the Republican holds in competitive races were also impressive. Texas, for example, the Democrats had a “Turn Texas Blue” strategy and targeted 10 seats, 4 as high-dollar tier one races involving incumbent Republican Chip Roy (TX-21) plus 3 open Republican-held seats.
Roy comfortably won reelection and Congresspersons-elect Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls (TX-22), Tony Gonzales (TX-23) and Beth Van Duyne (TX-24) won election in high dollar races.
The Democrats did hold the two seats they flipped in Texas in 2018 (TX-07, TX-32).
No Republican incumbent House member of Congress lost their reelection bid. Seems fitting the final Republican incumbent who won reelection, even by fewer than 1,000 votes, is the man who started the Republicans House Red Wave by flipping a Democrat-held open seat in a CA-25 special election in May.
The latest grid from late Monday with Mike Garcia’s 333 vote lead prompted Democrat Christy Smith to concede defeat Monday night and the AP to call the race for Garcia as the projected winner on Tuesday:
Garcia will return to Washington winning reelection to a full term by holding his own in Los Angles County (49% to 51%) but winning Ventura County with over 54% of the vote.
And there is one Republican vs. Republican House runoff election on December 5th for the LA-05 Republican open seat.
And once the 117th Congress is sworn-in, the first special election will need to be called, as Congressman Cedric Richmond (D, LA-02) has announced he’ll be resigning to join the incoming Biden Administration as a senior advisor. The LA-02 is a safe Democrat seat, so no risk of it flipping.
As a follow-up to a McHenry County Blog article from late September, the issue with the MN-02 election being delayed was struck down by the courts and on appeal, and Democrat Angie Craig was reelected to a 2nd term on November 3rd.
Another example if one does not like a law, go to court to change it.
The Cook Political Report 2020 House races tracker for additional reference information, including the certification of elections across the country.