IL-16: Immediate Take on Republican Primary Race

Catalina Lauf

From the desk of John Lopez

I don’t have inside knowledge, but assessing the landscape of Republican challengers to Congressman Adam Kinzinger in IL-16 very conducive for McHenry County’s Catalina Lauf to pull off the successful primary challenge.

Since she launched her campaign at 5PM CST on February 23 by measures available thus far, Lauf:

  • had over 500K views of her introductory video within 2 days
  • Twitter following grew from 63.3K at launch, to the current 108.3K as of mid-day Thursday, March 4.

All must remember running for office at congressional level is more big business/marketing as much about getting the most votes on primary election day, given to unseat Kinzinger will take at least $2 million.

Also, in play is fact new district boundaries have yet to be drawn, and won’t be known until October when actual census data released at end of September.

Jack Lombardi

Newcomer candidate Jack Lombardi paid McHenry County Blog a visit on Wednesday by leaving a comment, which was placed into an article. Lombardi asked a rhetorical question about Lauf, and another runner-up in last year’s IL-14 Republican primary, James Marter.

Why don’t they run again in IL-14? Should be noted, Lombardi disclosed he also lives outside of IL-16, in IL-01.

The remap of IL-14 expected to be more Democrat to protect Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D), with DeKelb/NIU and bulk of the city of Aurora likely being drawn into the 14th.

McHenry County portion of current 14th likely to be split to prevent it being a risk to Underwood’s reelection next year.

Lauf’s home not far (within 12 miles) from Boone County, which is in current 16th. Not far-fetched Lauf portion of McHenry County goes to 16th with the remap, which will end any “carpetbagger” claim against Lauf. Democrats drawing out a potential threat to Underwood’s reelection not unprecedented to protect one of their own.

Plus, Lauf said she’ll move into 16th if new district excludes current home after the remap.

Something also to consider, good chance primary election to be pushed back from March 15 of next year to as late as August 16 either by the Illinois General Assembly, or federal courts due to delay in detailed census data needed to complete the remap.

Using guerilla math, here are the approximate dates an August 16 primary will mean:

  • February 1, 2022, first day to circulate nominating petitions
  • April 27, first day to file petitions
  • May 2, last day to file petitions

An August 16 primary leaves barely 2 1/2 months to raise funds against Underwood for a general if Lauf were to run in the 14th.

Should Kinzinger be beaten on primary day, urgency to raise money reduced in 16th District for November, provided the new IL-16 continues to be predominately Republican after the remap.

Given Kinzinger took a pass from running for U.S. Senate or governor, Lauf free to raise money against Kinzinger’s impeachment vote and his “Country First” initiative.

Kim Klacik

Lauf’s introductory video adapted the viral video of Republican challenger Kim Klacik in MD-07. Given Klacik went on to raise $8 million last year beginning with her famous video in a dark blue district, Lauf could conceivably have a similar response for her IL-16 campaign in a currently red district where former President Trump is popular.

She’ll have funds to compete with, and possibly best Kinzinger.

For now, here are key dates to remember in IL-16:

  • March 31: Last day of first quarter for FEC fundraising period
  • April 15: FEC first quarter filings due
  • May 15: Financial Disclosure (FD) reports due to House clerk for candidates who’ve raised or spent (in combination) $5K

Next article on IL-16 from the desk: Besides former President Trump, who else has it in for Adam Kinzinger and the financial resources to back it up?


IL-16: Immediate Take on Republican Primary Race — 11 Comments

  1. John, I would say Lauf is certainly *the most likely* candidate to defeat Kinzinger in this bunch (she has the most resources), but I don’t know if I’d call her the *favorite* for the primary overall.

    At this point, I’d say Kinzinger is the favorite.

    That’s simply because people who like Kinzinger will stick with him (and he may even get Dem crossover vote) while the anti-Kinzinger vote would currently be split by three people all attacking him for not being sufficiently pro-Trump or “America First” (however they may define that).

    I think Kinzinger would squeak it out.

    Look at how Jim Oberweis won the primary last time around while all the other candidates (with the exception of Catella) pummeled him. About 75 percent of voters chose someone other than Oberweis but he still won.

  2. I am hoping Trump will back her and help keep the 3rd stooge from running?

    I think with the Kinzinger Kin going against him so publicly, probably should sink his ship.

    Like Old Lady Bush did when she was asked about Jeb running for President way back when she said something like, “I don’t think we should have a Monarchy.”

    That sealed his fate when his own mother dissed him in the press.

    This is another example of another Politician who forgot who he was working for.

    When will they learn?

  3. I’m hoping Derek LEE wins Algonquin Road Commissioner.

    He’s the one!

    He’s very smart.

    He had a law degree and speaks so well.

    It’s time.

  4. Ha – you think that article makes it look better?

    The consulting firm scammed her out of $4 million.

    GOP grift at its finest.

    “Hi, let’s pretend you can win this race. We’ll help you raise money. And we’ll keep $4m of it!”

    Seriously, GOP fundraising consultant scams are incredible. I’m not complaining though.

    I’d much rather y’all use the money on scammy consultants than voter contact, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  5. Kinzinger’s estranged and narcissistic boyfriend Ari may try and spoil K’s chances.

  6. kinzinger lobbied like crazy to become Secy of Defense, and then tried to become Secy of the USAF when Bannon told him no.

    Then Kinz tried to get his buddies in AIPAC and the Israeli lobby to get him the Air Force post.

    It should be obvious that Kinz is a closet case despite his fake marriage, like Justice Roberts or Jim Thompson.

    The real question is how did this creep become a congresswhore in the first place.

  7. Trent 45, unless Catalina Lauf reveals if she’s using the same vendors Klacik used, we won’t know until her campaign disclosure filings by mid April.

    Educated guess, Lauf and her people are aware of what happened with Klacik, and will work to prevent any wrong/questionable choices taking place in Lauf’s 2022 run.

    Please remember, IL-16 very different than MD-07.

  8. Jack Lombardi should be the candidate that is supported, Lauf is a grifter hand picked by Ronna McDaniel, and Kim Klacik who both ripped off their donors. Jack Lombardi is the true America First candidate in the district.

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