From the desk of John Lopez
I don’t have inside knowledge, but assessing the landscape of Republican challengers to Congressman Adam Kinzinger in IL-16 very conducive for McHenry County’s Catalina Lauf to pull off the successful primary challenge.
Since she launched her campaign at 5PM CST on February 23 by measures available thus far, Lauf:
- had over 500K views of her introductory video within 2 days
- Twitter following grew from 63.3K at launch, to the current 108.3K as of mid-day Thursday, March 4.
All must remember running for office at congressional level is more big business/marketing as much about getting the most votes on primary election day, given to unseat Kinzinger will take at least $2 million.
Also, in play is fact new district boundaries have yet to be drawn, and won’t be known until October when actual census data released at end of September.
Newcomer candidate Jack Lombardi paid McHenry County Blog a visit on Wednesday by leaving a comment, which was placed into an article. Lombardi asked a rhetorical question about Lauf, and another runner-up in last year’s IL-14 Republican primary, James Marter.
Why don’t they run again in IL-14? Should be noted, Lombardi disclosed he also lives outside of IL-16, in IL-01.
The remap of IL-14 expected to be more Democrat to protect Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D), with DeKelb/NIU and bulk of the city of Aurora likely being drawn into the 14th.
McHenry County portion of current 14th likely to be split to prevent it being a risk to Underwood’s reelection next year.
Lauf’s home not far (within 12 miles) from Boone County, which is in current 16th. Not far-fetched Lauf portion of McHenry County goes to 16th with the remap, which will end any “carpetbagger” claim against Lauf. Democrats drawing out a potential threat to Underwood’s reelection not unprecedented to protect one of their own.
Plus, Lauf said she’ll move into 16th if new district excludes current home after the remap.
Something also to consider, good chance primary election to be pushed back from March 15 of next year to as late as August 16 either by the Illinois General Assembly, or federal courts due to delay in detailed census data needed to complete the remap.
Using guerilla math, here are the approximate dates an August 16 primary will mean:
- February 1, 2022, first day to circulate nominating petitions
- April 27, first day to file petitions
- May 2, last day to file petitions
An August 16 primary leaves barely 2 1/2 months to raise funds against Underwood for a general if Lauf were to run in the 14th.
Should Kinzinger be beaten on primary day, urgency to raise money reduced in 16th District for November, provided the new IL-16 continues to be predominately Republican after the remap.
Given Kinzinger took a pass from running for U.S. Senate or governor, Lauf free to raise money against Kinzinger’s impeachment vote and his “Country First” initiative.
Lauf’s introductory video adapted the viral video of Republican challenger Kim Klacik in MD-07. Given Klacik went on to raise $8 million last year beginning with her famous video in a dark blue district, Lauf could conceivably have a similar response for her IL-16 campaign in a currently red district where former President Trump is popular.
She’ll have funds to compete with, and possibly best Kinzinger.
For now, here are key dates to remember in IL-16:
- March 31: Last day of first quarter for FEC fundraising period
- April 15: FEC first quarter filings due
- May 15: Financial Disclosure (FD) reports due to House clerk for candidates who’ve raised or spent (in combination) $5K
Next article on IL-16 from the desk: Besides former President Trump, who else has it in for Adam Kinzinger and the financial resources to back it up?