UPDATED: Cook Political Report Dave Wasserman Reissues June 1 Update of Possible Illinois Congressional Remap

Dave Wasserman

Tweeted as an “ICYMI”, Wasserman issues reminder of the potentially gerrymandered for IL Democrats unofficial draft map, dividing McHenry County between 8th, 9th and 10th Districts

Thursday, Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the renamed Cook Political Report with Amy E. Walter (as co-founder Charlie Cook steps into semi-retirement), issued a tweet with his June 1 update of his Illinois congressional remap which insiders, both Democrats and Republicans, do not deny to have inputs from Springfield insiders.

Wasserman’s multi-tweet message on July 29 transcribed below:

“ICYMI, here’s the hypothetical 14D-3R gerrymander of Illinois that eliminates Kinzinger’s current district. 14/17 seats would be Biden +14 or more – except IL-17, which would zoom from Trump +1.6 to Biden +6.2.

“How big are the potential swings here? Rep. Rodney Davis (R)’s downstate IL-13 would go from Trump +3 to Biden +18. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)’s IL-14 would go from Biden +2 to Biden +14.

“Another example of why redistricting is pretty much the ballgame for House control.”

Dave Wasserman tweets, 7/29/21

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As highlighted in Wasserman’s tweets, and consistent with all 4 versions of his Illinois congressional remap, the current IL-16, currently represented by Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R, Channahon) is eliminated.

Kinzinger’s residence, according to the draft map from Wasserman which did not change since the June 1 update, places the 6-term congressman into the IL-02, represented by Illinois Democratic Party Chair Robin Kelly.

If indeed the current IL-16 is eliminated, Kinzinger and all of his challengers will have to look elsewhere to run, either in a different House district, or possibly statewide, for governor or U.S. Senate.

As first drafted with Wasserman’s 3rd iteration of the map in mid-March, the “semi-swap” between IL-11 of Congressman Bill Foster and IL-14 of Congresswoman Lauren Underwood, both Democrats from Naperville, is implemented.

Underwood’s IL-14 losing all of Lake, McHenry and Kane counties, and Winfield Township in DuPage County, including her West Chicago main district office but picking up significantly more of her Will County home base including the city of Joliet, small portion of Lisle Township in DuPage County, all of Kendall County, including the city of Aurora currently represented by Foster, and all of LaSalle County and eastern Bureau County. In DeKalb County, Underwood loses the city of Sycamore, but gains the city of DeKalb including Northern Illinois University.

The IL-11 will continue to keep the bulk of the city of Aurora in Kane and DuPage counties plus gaining the city of West Chicago. Foster gains all of the city of Elgin, including the Cook County portion of Elgin. He will also represent the rural portion of western Kane County, plus rural Winnebago and Boone counties and eastern Ogle County.

Note, the cities of Rockford and Belvidere are drawn into the new IL-17.

Locally, the city of Chicago and the collar counties look like this:

Clearly, McHenry County is divided three ways between IL-08 of Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, IL-09 of Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, and IL-10 of Congressman Brad Schneider.

With the current IL-16 being eliminated, McHenry County’s Catalina Lauf is drawn into the IL-08.

No respectable Republican will challenge Krishnamoorthi next year, who reported over $10 million in his federal campaign committee on June 30.

If Lauf still runs for the U.S. House under the new remap, assuming the official remap resembles the Wasserman June 1 map, the most likely district Lauf may run would be the IL-11. While Foster is in his 7th term (and 1st two terms were representing IL-14 from 2008 through 2010), he has significantly more new territory.

From the desk of John Lopez: This is only my opinion, the Illinois Democrats have wrestled with trying to set-up a 2nd Hispanic Democratic congressional district to complement the 4th Congressional District represented by Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia.

Congressman Foster will be 67 at the end of 2022 and having served 7 terms, I would not be surprised if he is eased/forced into retirement after his current term is up. With the significant concentration of Hispanic voters in the cities of Aurora, Elgin and West Chicago in the proposed IL-11, there are several Latina state legislators who may be seen as the 2nd Hispanic Democratic member of Congress in the Illinois U.S. House delegation, including, by order of seniority in the Illinois General Assembly:

  • State Senator Cristina Castro (Elgin)
  • State Senator Karina Villa (West Chicago)
  • State Representative Barbara Hernandez (Aurora)
Cristina Castro

Please recall, Castro was a serious candidate for state Democratic chair earlier this year before bowing out and backing Congresswoman Robin Kelly. Bowing out and helping the winner win usually has rewards, and the new IL-11 may be that reward for Castro, who will be in her early to mid 40s in 2022. Seeing ALL of the city of Elgin (including nearly all of Castro’s 22nd Legislative District) in the boundaries of the new 11th District, Castro would be the most likely of the three Latina state legislators mentioned above being groomed to win election to Congress.

In addition to supporting Kelly’s election as state Democrat chair, Castro was also part of Governor J.B. Pritzker’s transition team in late 2018.

Turning back to Lauf, there is no guarantee she would have an unopposed road to the IL-11 Republican nomination next June. The proposed new IL-11 includes the home base of former state Senator Jim Oberweis (R, Sugar Grove) and Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham (R, Aurora). Insiders say Cunningham, in spite being in his 80s but independently wealthy, still has congressional aspirations.

Cunningham’s 5th term as Kane County clerk will be up next year, and should he pursue Congress, he’ll give up the clerk’s office.

Oberweis will be Oberweis, and as I’ve told insiders, until I see him formally file paperwork to become a resident of Florida and cancel his Kane County voter registration, he cannot be counted out to run for Congress again, especially a possible open seat new district.

What do you, the readers of McHenry County Blog think about the latest draft congressional map from Dave Wasserman, or some of the possibilities raised? Please let us know in comments.

UPDATE: Expected Timing of Congressional Remap

Commenter Eddie in two different threads asks valid question concerning the timing of the completion of the congressional remap. Here is what’s expected.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Census Bureau announced the detailed Census data to be used in remaps by all state legislatures and/or commissions, would be delayed to September 30 at the latest.

Media reports expect the actual date for release of the data to be mid August.

Using the optimistic mid August date, once the data is received, the “Map Room” will be set up in Springfield once again to apply the data and divide Illinois into 17 U.S. House districts. Officially, Senate Redistricting Committee Chair Omar Aquino and House Redistricting Committee Chair Elizabeth Hernandez are in charge of the Map Room.

In reality, it’s IL House Speaker Chris Welch and IL Senate President Don Harmon.

Around Labor Day, the first draft congressional remap will be released by Aquino/Hernandez, and any perfunctory hearings/open houses for the public to review the map will begin.

The Illinois General Assembly is currently scheduled to convene for the fall veto session in late October, so it’s expected the final congressional remap will be approved by the end of the veto session in November.

That projected timeline will likely fulfill the legal requirements for petitions to be circulated for the June 28 primary on January 13.

If the Census data is late, the expected timeline will be adjusted accordingly.

When the first official draft congressional remap emerges, then we’ll know if Dave Wasserman’s take has been accurate, or completely off, but likely somewhere in between.


Comments

UPDATED: Cook Political Report Dave Wasserman Reissues June 1 Update of Possible Illinois Congressional Remap — 24 Comments

  1. Divide and conquer, an effective tactic used by DEMOCRATS everywhere to consolidate and protect their power.

    Of course if they must destroy an objective in order to realize their goals then so be it, Illinois
    being the prime example.

  2. Again, for those of you who didn’t already know this, the Conservatives on the US Supreme Court made this possible in a 5/4 decision.

    Mostly it will help out Republicans nationally as more states are controlled by the GOP than by Dems.

    As a result, the Illinois Dems have to go overboard to help out the party’s chances nationally by stacking the state deck as much as possible.

  3. Why is some journalist trying to help crooked Democratic legislators make sure people are represented even worse?

    That’s just his hobby?

    ahhahahahha what a piece of garbage that guy is.

  4. If just a few more of you had gotten out of that godforsaken hellhole and moved to Texas.

    We’d have gained 3 more Republican seats instead of just two.

  5. Correcting, concerning the map, IL Senate President Don Harmon said the following of the Dave Wasserman map when it first appeared in early June:

    “I don’t know where those maps are coming from. I’ve gotten all sorts of panicked calls from people talking about some map or another. They’re not maps that we’ve produced.”

    Not exactly a denial of the legitimacy of the Wasserman June 1st map, given Harmon threw it in with a reference to “some map or another”.

    We saw Crain’s Chicago Business cite an earlier version of Wasserman’s map in a write-up.

    The above quote from June 2 Capitol Fax can be viewed here:

    https://capitolfax.com/2021/06/02/about-that-leaked-congressional-map/

  6. Little rays of hope, little blessings from God.

    Miller and Harmon throwing Wasserman under the bus — calling him a hack.

    That’s beautiful, man.

    …Well that made my day!

  7. Because S, it’s not that, “the conservatives on the US Supreme Court made this possible in a 5/4 decision.

    Stated correctly, it would be that, “the Conservatives on the US Supreme Court UPHELD THE CONSTITUTION in a 5/4 decision. They affirmed the Constitution. A real stunner, I guess….

    Because, the Constitution gives the States the job of running elections.Their own State constitutions and laws control that.

    The Feds need to stay out of States business.

    ✌️😎

  8. Mellow: That must explain why, in Bush vs Gore, the Supremes overturned a state court decision from Florida requiring a hand recount of the ballots thereby awarding that state’s electoral votes, and with it the Presidency, to George W. Bush.

  9. What I remember is the Supreme Court deciding that it could not allow a partial, selective re-count.

    They should have tried that first. Oh well! 🤷‍♂️

    ✌️😎

  10. Oops, that was an argument earlier on the way to the state court.

    I guess in the end they just decided not to let those that totally fu@cked up the election in the blue counties/cities still another try to f@ckingit up even more.

    ✌️😎

  11. Yes. Mellow.

    That is called “interfering with a state election”.

    There is no such thing as a “national election”, even for President.

    What we have are 51 simultaneous state elections.

    Actually what we have is over 3000 county elections which are overseen by the respective state.

    The majority on the Supreme Court at the time, all conservatives, decided to throw all of that to the 4 winds and insert themselves into the process so they could get a Republican president who would be able to appoint other Republicans to any vacancies that would come up on the Supreme Court, thus ensuring that the conservative majority would stay in the majority.

    It was a gross perversion of our legal system and an evisceration of “states rights” which those same conservatives claimed to uphold.

    Now when it comes to federal congressional elections, that same Court suddenly believes in the rights of the states because, when looked at from the national perspective, the GOP benefits.

    The Law is just politics by other means.

  12. Yet all the same, Because, they were coming up fast on a hard Constitutional deadline that could not seemingly be met otherwise.

    I’m not aware of what other constitutional remedies existed other than the Court, but then that’s exactly their role at a point such as that.

    I’m sure any other avenues available would have seemed just as much a sledgehammer, rather than a scalpel.

    But in the end, they were down to the final few seconds of the game.

    It couldn’t go on, and yet in the end, it would have ended up at the Court anyway.

  13. I don’t think the US Supremes even had jurisdiction on that.

  14. Well, you know, there are any number of significant judgements of similar weight that each side likes to love or revile.

    Same could be said of the other branches.

    I think the Presidency is unique in that the Executive is vested in a single person.

    ourts can run without a Justice of two, and Congress can function without a few of them while they’re battling in court.

    They’re also Commander in Chief as well.

    Uncertainty and instability on that front bodes ill for both our defense and financial interests.

    Accurate or not, the perception generally in the world is that we’re the ones driving the bus. So as the world is rocking down the highway, you want to make sure someone’s in that seat at a date certain.

    Not to mention all of the mind-blowing bring-you-up-to-speed cramming for them and top advisers, getting someone to download the 15 minute tutorial on The Football to your iPad.

    ✌️😎

  15. Nobody elected him, Gary, and nobody ever will.

    This guy is just some disheveled idiotic “journalist” who self-admits he is posting hypothetical, fictitious maps.

    I really don’t understand why John reports this crap as news.

    Why would I waste time analyzing precinct level data for fake maps? (I wouldn’t.)

    Wake us up when real maps are posted yawn oh I’m tired good night!

  16. Hi John. 🙂

    When is the official Illinois Congressional Districts’ Map due? 🤔

  17. Is this guy related to the lady with unwashed hair, Debby Wassermann Shults?

  18. Catalina Lauf just appeared on “The Next Revolution with Steve Hilton” on Fox News Channel.

  19. I revile Dave Wasserman.

    But I revile Because Science even more.

    Is Pokorny Because Science?

    SMELLS LIKE IT.

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