Take a look at the only new Illinois House District wholly within McHenry County.
Its number is 63 and it contains
- the increasingly strong Democratic city of Woodstock,
- that part of northern Crystal Lake where two female Democrats–Kelli Wegener and Tanya Jindrich–have captured County Board seats
- Oakwood Hills
- northern Cary
- Port Barrington
- Prairie Grove
- Bull Valley
- southern McHenry
- Holiday Hills
- Island Lake and
- southeastern Wonder Lake.
The incumbent is Republican Steve Reick, who lives west of Route 14 in Woodsock.
But the district also includes the Oakwood Hills home of McHenry County Democratic Party Chair Kristina Zahorik.
Zahorik, an Oakwood Hills Tustee, also heads the Democratic Party’s Chairs’ Association, so has plenty of access to the Illinois House Speaker and Senate President.
The party leader got deeply into politics by working of U.S. Senator Paul Simon’s staff.
She has shown that she can raise money–mainly from unions–and currently has $24,601.09 in her campaign fund.
Reick has $33,193.10.
If Zahorik beat Reick and, if Suzanne Ness is re-elected, Democrats would have two State Representatives represneting McHenry County.
It was not long ago that Republican State Representatives Mike Tryon and Barb Wheeler represented McHenry County in Springfield.
Of course, County Board member Kellie Wegener could be the chosen candidate for the new State Rep. District.
Or, she could run for County Treasurer, as the rumor mill has it.
Or former Woodstock Mayor Brian Sager, who lost to Republican Reick last year, might toss his hat into the ring again.
Besides Reick, the only currently elected GOP official who pops to mind is County Board member Lori Parrish.
I don’t see any difference between ZaWhore-I have and Reick
Both atheists, both drunks, both BLM kneelers.
Both stupid.
Both incompetent.
Both losers.
Both carpetbaggers.
Both failed in their respective professions.
Both unphotogenic.
Both crap.
I’m convinced, looking at election stastitics back to 1966, that woman have a five percentage point advantage over men.
Kristina Zahorik will be 57 next year for the 2022 elections and her children are nearly fully grown, and given the IL Democrats are about to pull IL-14 out of McHenry County, Zahorik will lose her state central committeeperson membership and doubtful she can win in the 8th or 9th districts, so one can see a winnable state House seat as a consolation.
Very doubtful Zahorik will do a then-Mayor Sager and publicly say the will not accept IL House speaker’s help in their election bid.
And, she can still be county party chair and possibly Democratic Party Chair president she’s held since after the 2018 general election.
Zahorik challenging Reick next year in a more Democratic friendly House district, plus building a farm team with the younger Democrat county board members, Zahorik would appear to be the immediate challenger to Reick, plus succession planning in place.
One may wonder, if Zahorik ends up in the 9th Congressional District, when the mid-70s congresswoman retires, if Zahorik will be seen as possible succession planning in the 9th(?).
They already approved of a map though. How are they redrawing it if they already voted to approve? Did they admit that the ACS data they used for the last map they drew was flawed? Is this a way to preempt the lawsuits from a Hispanic organization and from the GOP which center around the maps being drawn from ACS data instead of census data? (If that’s the case, organizations who object to the unfairness are going to need other grounds to sue over.) Did the census data provide them with information that made them rethink the recently approved map and submit an even more ambitious map? I can’t see this being any better for Republicans, and based on Reick’s district it looks even more favorable to Democrats than the previous map.
Right, John, why would a Democrat denounce the Speaker’s help next time around? Sager did that last time because people knew Madigan was toast. He didn’t want Madigan’s baggage, but Madigan is not the Speaker anymore and this proposed district looks a lot more Democrat leaning anyway.
In regard to the district being wholly within McHenry County, does that mean the McHenry County Libertarians could run a candidate there? They have ballot access in the county.
The 9th congressional district is represented by Jan Schackowski who will be 78 by the end of her current term. Zahorik building up her credit as a state legislator first would make sense considering the 9th congressional district may stretch from Evanston all the way to Woodstock. It might make her more reputable to people closer to Chicago if she has some progressive votes under her belt as a legislator instead of just a party insider, and if she were to only serve one term as a state rep then it wouldn’t matter if she ticked off the general population in McHenry County over those votes since she could move on up to a congressional district that’s even safer for Democrats.
Have the congressional maps been released yet? Not Wasserman’s maps but official maps.
The juxtaposition of Zahorik’s “love” shirt and her scowl and veins popping out of neck is funny. I can’t picture voting for that nutcase, but many Democrats would.
Parrish is probably even less of a conservative than Reick but she might do better than Reick in a general election given Cal’s stat about women and her not having certain baggage that Reick has. Her vote to not get rid of ICE, then to get rid of ICE, then to not get rid of ICE is a bad look though. Maybe the issue will be moot given the new law Pritzker signed, but the backtracking doesn’t look good. These are all things people will have to sort out next year during the primary. Parrish may want to stay on the county board — it would probably be a safer bet in terms of re-election than running in a huge state house district which requires a lot of money (and you know Zahorik will have access to a lot of cash given her connections as the chair of the IDCCA and as a state central committeewoman.)
I think Lauf’s residence is in this newly drawn house district too. But I don’t know if she would be up for a challenge in a district that looks Democrat leaning. I’ve thought for a while that the easiest road for Lauf in politics is not congress (given that Kinzinger’s district is probably going to be absorbed into other districts) but to challenge Craig Wilcox for state senate in the primary. It might be easier to defeat Reick in a primary, but that district doesn’t look so hot for a general election. Wilcox’s senate district would probably be safer in a general election. Then Lauf could build up her credibility potentially for something higher (like congress or a statewide run) by getting some votes under her belt, as opposed to primarily doing interviews and going to events.
That’s all I have to add for now.
Zahorik is party building while Republicans continue the self promote.
**How are they redrawing it if they already voted to approve?**
The same way that they amend any law. There is no law that says you can’t amend the maps after they are first approved. But yes, they’ve made adjustments based on the final census data coming out.
**Have the congressional maps been released yet? Not Wasserman’s maps but official maps.**
No… they are expected to not be introduced and voted on until October.
I also don’t think that this district has a Democratic lean… especially in a year that should be better for Republicans.
I also think that Zahorik would have to get into a LONG line of folks that want Schakowsky’s seat, many of which would have better name recognition than Zahorik.
Lauf running for State Rep would make all the sense in the world, except for the fact that she thinks she should be running for Congress and the state legislature would be way to low for her ego.
Why Democrat Party materials being displayed at Nunda Township?
I figured as much with the amendment analogy, but wondering about the technicalities. Would it be considered more like a repeal and replace? It’s not really an amendment, is it? It’s an entirely different bill. A bill was already passed. This probably sounds pedantic. I don’t deny they would have the power to change the map this far before the primary, just sort of curious how exactly they write something like this. It says “this is the new map, disregard the one we just approved of like a month ago”? They only do this once every ten years so it’s not something we see every day.
I agree with your comment about the long line in the 9th, which is why it might make sense for her to run for state rep first. Or she might not want to run for congress at all and remain a state legislator. Hard to predict what somebody will do and then what they’ll do after that, but that seemed like the logical way to climb the ladder if congress were her goal (not saying it is, just entertaining John’s idea).
Thanks for the heads up on the October time line. Maybe we’ll get about 5 more pretend maps from Wasserman before then.
Is it true they released these legislative maps on Monday but then voted for them on Tuesday? I read an article where they said that.
This map is so much different than the last one — can’t be due simply to some differences between the ACS and actual census data because I heard the differences from the ACS to actual census data, at least in McHenry County, were minuscule. I’m starting to think the Democrats already had a map like this one ready to go, but they gave us the earlier one to meet the deadline, and then switched it out. I found it odd that they weren’t trying to take Reick’s district. They barely touched it; just took out Marengo and added some rural part of Lake County but they weren’t trying to “go for it.”
Disagree with you that that’s not a blue leaning district. Sure, maybe it stays safe in a red wave election, but that would be more of a fluke. Woodstock, Cary, part of Crystal Lake and Fox River Grove would overpower McHenry and the more rural parts of the district. The few blue precincts in McHenry are in this map. The Nunda portion of Crystal Lake, which is in this map, is pretty blue. This dips down into a part of Lake in the Hills that’s blue too.
Details, please.
**It’s not really an amendment, is it? It’s an entirely different bill.**
It is an amendment to the existing redistricting Act. The first section of the legislation passed yesterday says: “The General Assembly Redistricting Act of 2021 is amended by changing Sections 5 and 20 and by adding Section 11 as follows…”
**Is it true they released these legislative maps on Monday but then voted for them on Tuesday? I read an article where they said that.**
Yea… and then introduced a newer version Tuesday morning that then was voted on.
**This map is so much different than the last one — can’t be due simply to some differences between the ACS and actual census data because I heard the differences from the ACS to actual census data, at least in McHenry County, were minuscule.**
In the maps that passed in May, a hand full of districts (based on the new census data) ended being too far from the population numbers they needed to hit. And when you start shifting districts around, you eventually have to shift every district. You cannot just shift a couple of boundary lines.
**Disagree with you that that’s not a blue leaning district.**
Lets come back to this conversation in a few days… when I think I may have some better data to look at. I suspect that this district will be – roughly – a 50/50 district in Presidential years and a Lean R district in off years.
Rino vs Demo=sos
Well you can see where your dues have gone … right to the waist of this one… she must have left her gold chains at home…. just keep feeding the beasts… you poor working common man ..
Correcting… I just ran numbers, solely looking at Trump vs Biden (and I ignored the other Presidential candidates) in the new 63rd House District.
Short answer, is basically 50/50, but I can’t get granular enough to be exact.
Of the full precincts in the district, Biden won 20046-19651 (50.5%-49.5).
Of the partial precincts in the district, Trump won 5939-5486 (52-48).
I can’t look at election results by census block, so I cannot get more specific than that.
So at the end of the delay, I think that the numbers will show that Biden barely won the new HD63.
But I think that the Biden/Trump numbers are less predictive than some other races (especially 2018 races), which I expect that we’ll see the Republicans (other than the SoS race) won them.
In the previous version of the map that passed in May, Trump won by 1%, but 2018 Rauner won by 10%, 2018 Erika Harold won by 8%.
And that was a very good year for Democrats in Illinois.
So if the new version shifted by 1-2%, that’s still a pretty solid Lean R district.
Also, I’ll note — about 2.5% of McHenry County voters voted for a candidate that wasn’t Biden or Trump.
About 1.5% of that went to conservative party candidates (.6% went to the Green/Socialist Parties and .5% went to write-ins), which likely pushes the district slightly redder as well.
Is she part sea cow?
Ok thanks for running numbers, Shake. I just eyeballed it.
You are right about other Republicans outperforming Trump in McHenry County. So Republicans have that going for them, and the potential for a backlash election against Democrats. On the downside, time and demographics have not been kind to Republicans in McHenry County or any of the collar counties.
It will be less red than it is now and less red than the way Dems drew it a few months ago. That much seems undeniable.
Cal, where did you find the new map?
Correcting – maps are here: https://ilhousedems.com/redistricting/
Click on the “view draft legislative map” on the right.
As to time and demographics – its hard to tell, and hard to say how much Trump has impacted this conversation (i.e. he’s really hurt Republicans in the suburbs) and how that impacts things moving forward.
But there’s a very good chance that this district becomes a Democratic district by the end of the ten years of this map.
But I’d guess that Frerichs and Mendoza lose this district next year.
Who knows about the Gov’s race, because if Darren Bailey is the candidate, Pritzker could win it.
But, back to the original point — it is very difficult for me to believe that this district was drawn for Zahorik based on the data.
Shake, original point.
It’s very easy to believe the 63rd District was drawn for Zahorik when the Monday morning version of the House map had Steve Reick’s home in the 69th District, not the 63rd.
The Tuesday morning version of the map had Reick’s home back in the 63rd, and that was what was approved.
Capitol Fax yesterday posted a comparison between 8/30 and 8/31 versions of House map, showing Reick’s home was impacted between the 2 versions.
John – so you think they drew a district for Zahorik that is almost assuredly a Republican district in non presidential years?
Ok.
Shake, no, the Dems originally drew Reick out of 63rd District (8/30) to increase the chances to flip the seat in spite of metrics you shared.
More doable without an incumbent.
Had the Dems not tried the cartographic legerdemain revealed Monday morning you would be right, but it was corrected in Tuesday’s final map release.
What’s next, you gonna try to say Monday’s map was a typo, or a trial balloon from the Democrats?
** More doable without an incumbent.**
Eh, pretty sure Dems would rather run against Reick than a generic Repub.
** What’s next, you gonna try to say Monday’s map was a typo, or a trial balloon from the Democrats?**
Why would I say such a thing?
I don’t know the reasons for the changes from Monday’s map to Tuesday’s map.
But that data doesn’t support the argument you and Cal are trying to make.
John’s theory sounds plausible to me, even probable.
This map is so much different than Reick’s current district and even the one they approved a few months ago.
Some major differences by township and this might not be complete: Hartland gone, Dunham gone, Coral gone, Chemung gone, west side of Seneca gone, Alden gone, Hebron gone, Richmond part gone, most of Greenwood except the Woodstock portion gone, northern part of McHenry gone… replaced with parts of Algonquin and it looks like all of Nunda which is where Zahorik lives.
Shake, you said you think this might have a very slight Biden lead.
Any idea about the lean of Reick’s current district?
Trump won the entire county by what like 3-4?
I would think Reick’s district has to be more Republican than the county average.
But the new map would have Reick’s district as, by your own admission, maybe leaning Biden?
What I’m getting at is that it looks like a pretty big swing, one that makes it go from leans Republican to one Democrats could win, and Zahorik potentially benefits from it since her residence would be in the 63rd district which it currently is not in.
In fact, Zahorik doesn’t even live in a district that borders Reick’s district.
She’s in the neighboring district of a neighboring district of the 63rd…
No matter where you’re at in the 63rd, you’d have to drive through another district before you got to Zahorik’s.
That’s how much they were changed.
The district that John and Cal think was created for Zahorik:
2020 Biden: 50.12%
2020 Durbin: 47.46%
2018 Pritzker: 43.36%
2018 Raoul: 45.93%
2018 Mendoza: 50.36%
2018 Frerichs: 45.94%
If that’s the district you think that they drew for Zahorik…
Correcting — Reick’s current HD63 looked like this (I don’t have the 2020 data, only the 2018 data):
Rauner: +13
Harold: +12
Senger: +2
Dodge: +10
So the new HD63 a bit less red, but not significantly.
Actually, I do have the 2020 data.
Trump won by 8
Curran won by 8
So the current district is a lot more Trumpy than the new HD63, but only slightly less Republican.
It’s getting late so my math skills are wearing off but wouldn’t that be roughly a ten point change if Trump won the current district by 8 but you’re saying Biden won this new/upcoming district with a slim majority? Reick defeated Sager by like 9-10 points.
If you have a 10 point swing, now it’s neck and neck.
And Zahorik might be a stronger candidate than Sager too.
She’d be able to raise more money than him, and it felt like there was a lack of enthusiasm for Sager, perhaps because some Democrats didn’t see him as one of them.
Sager only resigned as an elected Republican PC in July 2016, partially due to pressure from people on this blog who were mad he was chumming it up with Jack Franks — and for being homosexual, “ALLEGEDLY.”
Yes, if it turns into a backlash election then I get your point about it being safe (at least in 2022), but we don’t really know what’s going to happen.
There could even be a scenario where Trump’s people stay home with him not on the ballot as they did in 2018 or because they think elections are rigged, or there could be some event that triggers Democrats to get out and vote: like a SCOTUS decision *AHEM* that makes whores mad or allegations of a man drinking beer in college if you know what I mean.
We don’t know what turnout will be, but based on apples to apples comparisons, we know that district will be more Democratic than it is now, and we know Zahorik’s residence is in this new district.
If it is 50-50, give or take, why not run?
Those are pretty good odds.
Any idea what her salary is as chairman of IDCCA (if she gets one at all)? Or as a State Central Committeewoman (if she even gets one)?
She probably doesn’t get one as chairman of McHenry County Dems. Vs State Rep??
Most people who are into politics would rather be a state legislator than some party goofball — having some obscure position nobody has heard of except the nerds on political blogs.
So, again, I can see why Cal or John would have this idea.
Hopefully you’re right and she won’t run.
**wouldn’t that be roughly a ten point change if Trump won the current district by 8 but you’re saying Biden won this new/upcoming district with a slim majority? Reick defeated Sager by like 9-10 points. If you have a 10 point swing, now it’s neck and neck.**
Again, you can’t just look at the Trump numbers.
Did you look at the rest of the numbers?
Honestly, I don’t think we’d be having this conversation had not the Monday morning version of the draft House map not excluded Reick from 63rd and put him in 69th.
The Tuesday remap draft approved that night brought Reick back to the 63rd, as AlabamaShake admits, doesn’t know why (9/1, 9:43PM).
While the metrics are appreciated, and as Correcting points out, we don’t know what political landscape will be like in 14 months, let alone the primary in less than 10.
But a little applied common sense, a 3-term incumbent state representative seeking reelection will have a little more name ID than a new state representative candidate even if they’ve held elective public office (I know, Mike Tryon went from elected by members’ county board chairman to state rep but that’s exception) even in a redrawn district.
Hence, I stand by my original theory given the Monday version of the IL House map.
“I appreciate the data, but I’m going to stick my theory that doesn’t match up with the data.”
Got it.
Alabama, your maunderings are a testament to your idiocy.
Hi Dingo – the adults are having a conversation here.
Try to keep up and add something on topic, or move on.