Carolyn Schofield Not Running for State Representative

New Ness District

Democrats made sure McHenry County Bord member Carolyn Schofield was redistricted out of the district in which incumbent first-term Democrat Suzanne Ness lived.

Carolyn Schofield

Both are Crystal Lake residents, but Ness lives in Algonquin Township and Schofield in Grafton Township.

Both served in the same County Board district.

Both lived in the district Ness took from Republican Allen Skillicorn when Skillicorn refused to withdraw adfter he had decided to move to Arizona.

While the Illnois State Constitution says that in remap years a person can run in any district that was part of the old district in which one resided, it also says that to run for a second term in the decade, one must mocve to the new district.

At the ribbon cuttring for Randall Road, Schofield told me that she liked her home, that she would not run against Ness.


Comments

Carolyn Schofield Not Running for State Representative — 27 Comments

  1. Why should she?

    Ness votes the way she would.

    Is SHE the person that would have been appointed if AS had formally resigned?

  2. That doesn’t mean she won’t run in her new district.

    All she said was she didn’t want to move her home.

    Who else is in that district?

    I don’t think Reinhardt will run given the petition fiasco.

    Will Paul Serwatka come back? He got 5.4% of the vote running for mayor of Decatur Alabama.

    Is Jeff Thorsen in the new district?

  3. Forbidden to mention negative facts about “minorities”, to avoid stirring up prejudices.

    It is not permissible to tell the whole truth. Journalists, police, teachers, every citizen, all are REQUIRED TO LIE: because the WHOLE TRUTH “stirs up prejudices1 against minorities”. For over half a century, we have eagerly embraced this gag order. “Black kills White” must not be uttered.

    The AP Stylebook even requires Media to remove true facts about ethnicity of a criminal, as soon as the suspect gets apprehended.

    https://sincerity.net/

    Tired of all the lies and deceptions.

  4. Because science should rinse the avian and human fecal matter out of his mouth. It really smells.

  5. No, Gary Daugherty of the IL State Rifle Assoc was appointed when Skippy ran off to AZ without alerting the party.

  6. Casey Amos is correct, and like Carolyn Schofield, the Illinois Democrats promptly drew the boundary line of the 66th district one precinct over to the east and drew former state Rep Gary Daugherty out of the 66th District and like Schofield, into the 70th Representative District.

    If either Schofield or Daugherty wanted to run for state Rep next year, they’d have to primary 70th District state Rep Keicher of Sycamore.

  7. Which probably means that the 66th will get a Trump loving, conspiracy toting, anti mask and anti vax right wing nut job to run against Ness, who will then trounch him/her in what is now a majority Democractic district.

  8. The new 66th District looks like a meat cleaver, with Ness living at the very end of the handle.

  9. I’ll never understand conservatives that would rather have a moderate Dem (Suzanne Ness) than a moderate Republican (Schofield) because they would prefer a much more conservative candidate that very likely cannot win.

    Even though Schofield would vote in the way that they wanted 98% (or more!) of the time.

  10. Never understood the name calling. Gasbag or schmofield.

    How about I really like how Wilcox speaks about the ComEd bailout or I don’t like Pritzger’s COVID rules.

  11. Because nonscience. You are an ugly troll. Living small with mom and dad.

    You make me sad. Because your intestines might end up on a stick.

    I said ‘might’ bc you may move to Mexico and there, get your head removed from your neck.

    Why?

    Ans: NOT bc you are so witty.

    Go back to your whining gf in FL

  12. “conservatives that would rather have a moderate Dem (Suzanne Ness) than a moderate Republican”

    Because you can vote out the D in an R district far more easily than primary the R.

    And, as always, the 4~5% of the time they voted with the Ds would be the really important times. Not the fluff or times when the vote didn’t matter.

    Just like when Madigan REALLY needed him – Andressen was there for Mike M.

  13. **Because you can vote out the D in an R district far more easily than primary the R.**

    So you would rather have someone in office that you are doing to disagree with most of the time, because you think that you could beat them next time, than someone you are going to agree with on almost everything, because you think that they would be hard to beat next time?

    Huh.

    Also, that new Ness district isn’t an R district.

    Biden won by 10+ points.

    Pritzker won by 2, Raoul won by 3.

  14. “Also, that new Ness district isn’t an R district. Biden won by 10+ points. Pritzker won by 2, Raoul won by 3.”

    Throw out the Biden-Trump numbers from last fall as that’s an aberration, compared with down ballot local races, particularly in Kane County which is now the bulk of the new 66th.

    While 2018 was an aberration for a mid-term election, the Pritzker/Raoul numbers consistent with down ballot Kane County local races, going by guerilla math of the Kane County, Dundee Township precincts, which make up significant portion of Ness’ new 66th District (note, the heavily Hispanic precincts of Carpentersville and Elgin are drawn to the 43rd District).

    It’s fair to say the new 66th District is a “leans Democrat”, but in a typical mid-term in a Republican year and with the right Republican nominee and if Ness has additional significant votes on radical Leftist legislation like SB 818 (sex education expansion), the 66th will quickly become a “toss-up”.

    Ness being forced to defend that SB 818 vote, and any similar votes where her vote made a difference on Leftist legislation (SB 818 only passed the House with bare minimum 60 votes), could be her undoing if Republicans nominate the most qualified candidate next June.

  15. John – who was the last statewide Republican to win the new Ness district? And while I wouldn’t say that the Biden/Trump numbers are an aberration (btw… Durbin won the district by 8 in 2020), I would say that they shouldn’t be the only numbers to look at (hence why I also included the Pritzker/Raoul numbers).

    But, I’m glad that you agree that the district isn’t an R district, so not quite sure what you’re arguing about. I agree that it would be described as a “Lean D” district and could end up being a toss-up.

    But, you’re essentially saying that you agree with my general point. My whole point is that it is only a toss-up if the R’s nominate the right candidate, which would be a candidate much more like Carolyn Schofield than, say, Allen Skillicorn. But some on this blog would rather feel good about voting for someone like Allen Skillicorn than actually win the district.

  16. Shake, while our comments exchange this morning one of the rare times we agree on more than we disagree, there are two distinct differences of opinion.

    For example, you asked about last Republican statewide to win in new 66th.

    Better question, When was the last time Illinois Democrats competed for the 66th District?

    Possibly when then Kane County Regional Schools Superintendent Doug Hoeft first ran for the seat in the 1990s with a Republican-drawn map?

    You consistently overemphasize top-down comparisons, like statewide races and presidential, and try to make that a predictor.

    That may work for congressional races, but for state representative races, a better indicator would be down ballot countywide races, as I find countywide returns in Kane County better predictor for trends.

    One reason, many General Election voters do “stop-at-the-top” and may not vote in any down ballot races especially in a presidential year.

    A voter who makes it to the countywide offices on a General Election ballot likely voted in state representative races, too.

    The open Kane County Board chairman race is a good indicator, and although the Republican nominee had appeared on the ballot as county treasurer six times prior, board chairman significantly higher stakes.

    The Kane County Circuit Court clerk’s race saw a 2-term Republican incumbent lose last fall, so IMHO a better comparison.

    Call it coming to the same answer from opposite ends, but the new 66th District includes all of Kane County that was previously in the 52nd District, which was open last fall and Illinois Democrats only pursued via direct mail, but not on TV.

    State Rep. Marty McLaughlin only won the Kane County portion of the district by 76 votes over Democrat Marci Suelzer, and the Green Party nominee.

    he 7 Kane County precincts of the old 52nd are now in the new 66th.

    As for the other disagreement, calling state Representative Suzanne Ness a “moderate Dem” is real stretch.

    A real moderate Dem wouldn’t have voted for SB 818 and claims being moderate, given Ness’ vote was needed for SB 818, will make her reelection challenging.

    We both agree, the 66th District next fall could be a toss-up district, and one reason is Ness voting with the Left on bills like SB 818.

    Another reason, I’ll repeat, a qualified Republican nominee must win the primary in June.

  17. ** When was the last time Illinois Democrats competed for the 66th District? **

    Last cycle? When Suzanne Ness won?

    **The Kane County Circuit Court clerk’s race saw a 2-term Republican incumbent lose last fall, so IMHO a better comparison.**

    Sure… but that just supports my point, doesn’t it?

    It also isn’t directly relevant to HD66.

    Its a little weird that you focus on generalities “Kane county” rather than actual numbers in HD66.

    I’ll answer my own question — the only GOP statewide candidate since 2016 that has won the new HD66 is Leslie Munger in 2016.

    I focus on statewide candidates because it is the easiest data available, not necessarily the most perfect data available.

    But I’ve seen little evidence/data that shows the legislative districts don’t typically align with the statewide results in the district.

    It is never a perfect correlation, but the trend lines typically hold.

    I’d love to see your data that shows that legislative districts don’t typically align with statewide candidate results.

  18. **many General Election voters do “stop-at-the-top” and may not vote in any down ballot races especially in a presidential year. **

    Also, FWIW, only about 5,000 people voted for President that didn’t vote in the Buehler/Franks race (which was way down-ballot, if I recall correctly).

    That type of small drop off would have not have a significant impact on the numbers/trends.

  19. ** When was the last time Illinois Democrats competed for the 66th District? **

    I’ll rephrase, prior to 2020….

    Now, Mike Madigan rarely missed opportunities to expand his House majority back when he was in charge, but 2018 he would have likely flipped the 66th District (and spared us a 2nd term of Allen Skillicorn) had he run a candidate instead of letting Skillicorn win a 2nd term uncontested.

    He did the same with the 43rd District back in 2006 by not running a candidate.

    Both times, he flipped the district the following election cycle.

    Somewhere in Shake’s use of comparisons to Buehler/Franks, one factors out federal-only ballots, plus, Jack Franks at the local level was as polarizing as Donald Trump at the national level, so stop-at-the-top likely won’t apply as much to undervotes as was seen in Kane County (and big reason why Republicans had four countywide offices flipped, 2 with 2-term incumbents, and 2 open offices last fall).

    But here’s a challenge to Shake to see, with the analytics he uses (and anyone else who looks at numbers), what would he advise.

    With the 66th District now a “leans Democrat” House district, that means half of the 33rd Legislative District now leans Democrat.

    With the changes Springfield Democrats made to the other half of the 33rd in the 65th Representative District, look at the data, and answer this question:

    Should first term state Representative Suzanne Ness seek reelection to her seat in the new 66th District, or should she try to flip the 33rd and run against first-term state Senator Don DeWitte with a Democrat map?

    (this is similar to state Senator Karina Villa last fall, when she flipped Jim Oberweis’ 25th Legislative District when it was left open when he ran for Congress, and doing this after 1 term in the House).

    If you’re the Democrats and your analytics sees the 33rd District flippable, who would you advise to run against DeWitte without resorting to retread Martha Paschke, who lost to Dan Ugaste last fall?

    Would you try to convince Ness, given the leans Democrat component allows potential for succession, maybe with former Dundee Township Supervisor Trish Glees?

    What would the data say to do?

  20. The 33rd Senate district is a lot more Republican than the 66th House district.

    I doubt that Suzanne would want to make that jump right now.

  21. **2018 he would have likely flipped the 66th District (and spared us a 2nd term of Allen Skillicorn) had he run a candidate instead of letting Skillicorn win a 2nd term uncontested.**

    I agree!

    I wish that they would have invested in that race.

    They nosed around in 2016 (when Nancy Zettler was the candidate), but it never really got competitive.

    Though Nancy did make the HGOP political operation spend money there that they weren’t expecting to have to do.

    FWIW, I used the Franks/Buehler race as the easiest/quickest way to look at down-ballot drop-off (because it was a county-wide race).

    Circuit Clerk also only saw about a 5,000 vote drop-off.

    I believe that the other county-wides didn’t have a Dem candidate, so you don’t have an apples/apples comparison.

  22. “The 33rd Senate district is a lot more Republican than the 66th House district. I doubt that Suzanne would want to make that jump right now.”

    Shake has the right answer, but for partially the wrong reason and something he’s avoided 3 times now.

    Suzanne Ness is not a “moderate Dem” as her vote on SB 818 proved.

    That fact alone will likely make her race to win reelection to the 66th a “toss-up”, provided the Republicans nominate a qualified (meaning electable) candidate.

  23. “FWIW, I used the Franks/Buehler race as the easiest/quickest way to look at down-ballot drop-off (because it was a county-wide race).

    Circuit Clerk also only saw about a 5,000 vote drop-off.

    I believe that the other county-wides didn’t have a Dem candidate, so you don’t have an apples/apples comparison.”

    FWIW, that’s why I use Kane County elections, opposed to McHenry County, given all that happened there, and now that 66th more Kane, provides a better example.

    I exclude the Kane County recorder, as a 5-term Republican incumbent skews the numbers.

    I throw out the auditor race as the Democrat nominee winner is the daughter (and uses birth name) of the Republican recorder, and the name ID likely skews the trend numbers.

  24. I disagree with your argument about “moderate” in two ways.

    One, I do think that Suzanne Ness is moderate.

    But two, I don’t think that it really matters how Ness voted.

    Based on years of past experience, the Republicans are going to run the exact same campaign against her no matter what.

    I also really don’t think that comprehensive sexual education is going to be a top campaign issue.

    And, if it is, I don’t think that it will play as you think it will play in Ness’s district.

  25. **FWIW, that’s why I use Kane County elections, opposed to McHenry County, given all that happened there, and now that 66th more Kane, provides a better example.**

    I hear you on that… but looking County wide doesn’t tell us much about HD66. We have actual data to look at results in the new 66th. We don’t have to make broad assumptions based on the entirety of Kane County.

    Also, the drop-off from President to County Board Chair was 3.7% in Kane County (very slightly more than the Mchenry County chair race). Still not a huge difference or one that would make a substantial difference on the partisanship makeup. And yes, there may be more drop-off in the legislative races than the county-wide down ballot races, but I’m not going to run that data right now.

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