From September 28 through end of October, U.S. House candidates face month of fundraising reports and new congressional map
- September 28: Illinois House and Senate Democrats relaunched their “remap portal” under the guise the public has a say with input into congressional remap, per Capitol Fax publishing press release
- September 30: Last day of 3rd quarter fundraising reporting period
- October 15, 11:59PM CDT: Campaign disclosure reports due to Federal Election Commission (FEC)
- On October 15: Illinois General Assembly expected to issue first draft of IL congressional remap
- October 19: General Assembly begins Fall Veto session (and confirmed in recent interview with Senate President Don Harmon congressional remap will be approved)
- Whenever General Assembly approves new congressional map, declared congressional candidates must decide where/if they will run in 2022, if current IL-16 eliminated as expected
UPDATE #7: Catalina Lauf, James Marter, Jack Lombardi and Marsha Williams report, draft congressional map district included
At the James Marter kickoff event in Oswego this (Friday, 10/15/21) morning, Marter (prior to release of FEC numbers) said Q3, 2021 was his “best fundraising from grassroots”.
From the desk of John Lopez: Crunch time for congressional candidates across the country, including in the IL-16 of Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R, Channahon) in what will likely be the last fundraising quarter for the IL-16 as is currently configured.
McHenry County Blog is ready to track the FEC campaign disclosure reports filing after September 30 until they are due at 11:59PM CDT on October 15 with the tote board ready for publication.
This will be the first FEC reporting period for Michael Rebresh (R, Minooka), who filed his initial FEC paperwork on August 3.
Will Rebresh have a breakthrough fundraising quarter which lasted a little less than two months?
Will newcomers Teresa Pfaff (R, MacChesney Park) or Geno Young (R, Chicago) file an FEC report for the 3rd quarter?
As reported in the Daily Herald during the summer, Dr. Leona di Amore (R, Channahon) placed her campaign “on hold”, but her name remained on the tote board, though she has yet to file any paperwork with the FEC since her campaign announcement in March.
Will James Marter (R, Oswego) have a breakthrough quarter fundraising, given his campaign has shown signs of having hired more professional help?
Will Jack Lombardi (R, Manhatten) show any viable signs of a viable campaign, in spite of his claims of having 17,000 parents on his side (I never believed his claims of 17K-member Facebook groups, and his fundraising will prove it) during his opportunistic grandstanding against mask mandates in local schools?
But the real pressure, in my honest opinion, is on Catalina Lauf (R, Woodstock), for the following reasons:
- Can she maintain her fundraising pace, which totaled over $356K through June 30, and surpassed already her entire fundraising for her 2020 IL-14 campaign?
- Can she reduce her campaign’s “burn rate” (expenses over receipts) which was 79% in the 2nd Quarter and over 60% since her campaign launched on February 23?
- Can Lauf have her first $500K or $1 million fundraising quarter in order to be competitive against Kinzinger?
Here is some evidence the 1st and 3rd bulletpoints from above could be reached during the 3rd Quarter:
As Lauf stated in her Instagram post last night, she has a “good problem” having to sign 5,000 thank you notes for 3rd Quarter campaign contributions.
How much this translates into campaign dollars, we’ll know by October 15.
Not to be left out, will Congressman Kinzinger continue building a massive war chest, which had over $3 million in the bank on June 30, for his reelection bid, or what is looking more likely, a Republican primary for U.S. Senate?
Finally, the last version of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter Senior U.S. House Editor Dave Wasserman projects will be the new Illinois congressional map when the General Assembly releases its first version next month:
Going to be fun to watch. What do you think?
UPDATE #2: Through mid-morning 10/8/21, only Michael Rebresh Filed his FEC 3rd Quarter Report
Newcomer Michael Rebresh (R, Minooka), as observed by commenter Correcting, filed his third quarter FEC report, and it was filed on September 29, a day before the quarter ended.
Here is the updated tote board, with Rebresh’s filing added:
Of the $11,450 in receipts, Rebresh loaned his campaign $7,500. Additionally, he contributed to himself an additional $1,500.
Therefore, only $2,450 of Rebresh’s receipts came from donors.
None of the other candidates have released their FEC filings. If a campaign is ready, today would be a good day to release the latest FEC report, given the deadline is next week on October 15, but the big news a week from now will likely be the first draft congressional maps from the IL General Assembly, which will overshadow anyone’s FEC reports, even a very good one.
McHenry County Blog will monitor the FEC website to see if any other congressional candidate in IL-16 releases their FEC quarterlies today, and update this article accordingly.
UPDATE #3: Kinzinger Announces Q3 Fundraising, but no report filed, yet
According to Chicago Sun-Times Lynn Sweet in article Wednesday night:
KINZINGER CASH HAUL: Kinzinger, the best-known Republican in Illinois, is also the most vulnerable because he and U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., are the leading Republicans in Congress willing to speak out against former President Donald Trump’s lies, election denials and embrace of conspiracy theories. While being a national leader of the non-Trump wing of the GOP has raised his profile and fundraising ability, it also means it will be very difficult for him to win a GOP primary for a House seat in Illinois — no matter what the new Democratic-designed map looks like.
For the third quarter — covering July, August and September — Kinzinger raised $957,177 for his two political committees, the Sun-Times has learned. He took in $562,355 for his reelection war chest and $394,822 for his Future First Leadership PAC, used to bankroll his “Country First” drive to build a movement to break Trump’s grip on the Republican Party.
The Sun-Times says Kinzinger’s cash on hand on September 30 is $3.3 million.
UPDATE #4: Sun-Times Confirms Congressional Map to be Released, Democrat Incumbent Congress Members Already Viewed Their New District.
As expected, Illinois Democrats set to unveil draft map to produce a 14 Democrat, 3 Republican U.S. House delegation from Illinois in 2022.
Per Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times:
“Several Democratic members were shown a map with only their own new district lines on Thursday. No member was permitted to see the entire map. The situation is a bit fluid and the timing of the release could change. What’s important is this: Illinois state Democrats drafted a map to maximize the election of Democrats to Congress.
“The Chicago Sun-Times has learned the new congressional map, based on the 2020 Census, will be drawn to favor voters electing Democrats in 14 districts leaving only 3 where Republicans can easily win.
“The current map, based on the 2010 Census has Illinois sending 13 Democrats and 5 Republicans to Congress.”
Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun-Times
The map is funny
I don’t think if she falls short of your unrealistic goal that she’s in trouble.
(Well the whole conversation is moot since this district is going to be deleted but I’m playing along.)
If she raises less than 360 k in two quarters why would you think she would raise 500 k in one quarter?
So no I wouldn’t view that as a weakness.
Why wouldn’t it be more appropriate to look at Lauf vs other challengers instead of Lauf vs Kinzinger?
We already know Kinzinger is going to raise way more than any other person.
A lot of people are waiting to see what these districts are going to look like before donating.
I’m waiting to hear what Metallica songs she most enjoys and which DBZ character she is most like before donating… how much does one have to donate to get a card signed by her?
Again you make an unnecessary and biased swipe at Lombardi.
Opportunistic grandstanding?
How is it any more opportunistic than the other Republicans going for anti-maskers?
Didn’t Lauf raise money to sue Pritzker?
What did she do with that money?
How do you judge grandstanding from sincerity?
Yes, I agree it will be fun to watch.
Thank you so much for the update!
I am such a stupid sucker for these articles.
And I think it would be cool if she ran against Bribe Schneider if Dave Wasserman’s fake map actually became reality even if she didn’t have a chance.
(That’s what we call Brad. We call him Bribe.)
I don’t think K is planning on running for any congressional office.
His 3 MIL is enough to at least get him a seat at the table for a statewide run for something.
However it is going to be tough to beat the 35 MIL that JB has put up with the ability to plunk down more as needed.
So that leaves US Senate but I don’t see Duckworth as being vulnerable.
So it would be a Quixotic run at best.
So maybe punditry on CNN.
Eddie Munster, it’s a fake map.
You know how JRR Tolkien used to draw FANTASY maps of Middle Earth?
It’s like that, except with less basis in reality.
This dude Dave Wasserman even says in his tweets he’s just doodling maps lol
John just likes to report on it for fun — this entire blog is a LARP.
Don’t take anything on this blog seriously.
It’s just for fun bro.
I thank Mr. Lopez for his diligence.
Is Kinsinger really gonna run?
Kinzinger isn’t even gonna re-run for this.
No, Kinzinger won’t run for House. Nothing resembling his current district will remain after the redraw and he won’t bother. Senate is a possibility. Even though he won’t be able to defeat Duckworth, like BecauseScience pointed out, he might still run to try to keep Bobby Piton or another Trump-supporting Republican from being the Republican candidate.
Adam Kinzinger HATES Donald Trump and sees it as his personal mission to purge the party of Trump’s influence. To give you an idea of how much Kinzinger despises Trump and people who stand with Trump, these are just some of the articles that have been written about Kinzinger’s hate affair of Trump and Trump-supporting Republicans in the last three weeks alone. Kinzinger is probably a bigger Trump-basher than are Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, or AOC at this point.
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2021/09/adam-kinzinger-republican-party-friggin-crazy/620182/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-dont-deserve-house-majority-if-they-push-lies-kinzinger-2021-09-05/
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/572875-kinzinger-says-trump-winning-because-so-many-republicans-remained-silent
https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1004829/gop-rep-adam-kinzinger-calls-trump-one-of-the-weakest-men-that-ive-ever-seen
https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1005037/gops-kinzinger-tells-silent-colleagues-the-time-for-hiding-is-over-in-fight
https://www.newsweek.com/adam-kinzinger-admits-trump-winning-urges-gop-stand-lies-1630508
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/09/16/adam-kinzinger-trump-biden-afghanistan-newday-vpx-keilar.cnn
https://www.newsweek.com/republican-adam-kinzinger-rips-trumps-praise-robert-e-lee-demands-gop-condemnation-1627530
Is Lauf a real person?
Nifty, are you asking whether she literally exists or if she is a sincere/genuine person?
If it’s the former, many people on this blog have met her in person.
If she runs again you’ll have plenty of chances to meet her and then maybe you can decide on the latter.
Imo she seems kinda phony but you should meet her and decide for yourself.
Or are you asking if we have proof she isn’t a cyborg or a lizard?
Can’t help you there.
Rebesh is yet another no hope candidate.
Lauf has more than 10 times the cash on hand of Lombardi.
And Lombardi has almost twice as much as Marter, doing a second round.
Assuming that AK is out (good assumption) then it depends on where she chooses to run, and who else is running against her.
If it’s just this field, she wins the primary in a stomp.
Lombardi’s shoddy approach to the paperwork might not dismay you, but it surely shows he’s not ready for prime time.
Marter at least learned that.
Fundraising should be it’s own branch of medicine, dealing with the mental and emotional disorders, of adults making between $90 K and $400 K per year.
DJ, do you ever make any sense? Or even try.
I heard about your OD on Prevagen last month.
Due to redistricting, people are hesitant to donate to campaigns, and rightly so.
But money alone doesn’t make the candidate.
It certainly shouldn’t.
For anyone who believes that raising money is the determining factor of viability, I would say THAT is exactly the problem with politics and politicians.
Certainly conservatives should recognize that how far one stretches the funds that a candidate has is as important as how much they have.
Just because you can afford a Ferrari doesn’t mean that a Chevy doesn’t accomplish as much if nothing more.
Just saying….
For that kind of cash, I’d be willing to sell Kinzinger my Star Trek disintegrater Phaser Gun.
Which on low setting, works on women’s clothing.
I wish we had Politicians running for office who actually have a track record of accomplishing something.
Cynthia why don’t you run? I’d vote for you.
I thought he was losing his district (new #2) to a popular Democrat?
Make up your mind.
Kinzy is toast, he will be a CNN anchor and probably take over for Fredo once more victims come forward.
There are almost ALWAYS more than one victim.
Stormy, everyone’s waiting for the release, let alone approval of the new maps during the veto session this month.
Kinzinger’s waiting too, and he’s doing what he should be doing, raising funds as if he will seek reelection to the House in the current district.
We may see an new draft map as early as tomorrow night.
I think he is raising funds so he can bankroll other campaigns that are running against Trump people, just a hunch??
Stormy, that would account for Kinzinger’s Future First Leadership PAC, which operates under “Country F1rst” name.
That will be used to promote non-Trump Republicans next year.
His campaign fund is for his election bid for Congress, and can be used for a U.S. Senate run next year if Dems eliminate his district as expected.
Duckworth reported having $5.8 million in the bank through Sept 30, which does not put the Senate race out of reach for Kinzinger, who has $3.3 million and hardly any credible potential primary opponents.
My gay grandnephew says he saw Kinz making out with a guy at a nightclub in Virginia in 2017.
The woke suburbanites will vote for him if he runs. Cynthia, your comment tells me that you’re not paying attention.
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the new map is tossed out in court.
I don’t think that the Republican lawsuit will go anywhere, but the Republicans aren’t the only ones contesting the new districts.
A Latino civil rights group claims that the new districts are illegal because they dilute Latino voting strength.
If they can show this, it would be a clear violation of federal law, and the federal courts would not be able to kick the issue down to the state courts that would almost certainly rule in favor of the Democrats.
It should be an interesting couple of months.
Some of this stuff about Kinzinger doesn’t matter, John.
For example, who cares how much money he raises if he doesn’t run for office again?
If his district is being deleted, why do we care?
Let us know if he is running for something STATEWIDE because the bulk of the rumors were that he would seek something STATEWIDE like perhaps Senate (or SoS) and that may have explained why he was raising so much money.
Who knows?
His chances for congress are gone if his district is going to be erased and his home district ends up in a heavy D district.
Anything in Will County (where he lives) is going to get lumped into a Cook County district almost guaranteed.
No chance for a Republican there.
I’ve been saying that for a long time now… pretty sure I was saying that Kinzinger’s district was going to go bye bye long before the “expert” Dave Wasserman said so and I don’t get paid from Politico I’m just a regular guy.
…And speaking of STATEWIDE stuff, I think I made a post about Libertarians a while ago.
Well, guess what, buddy, I got a list of their candidates.
-Gov candidate Scott Schluter
-US Senate Bill Redpath
-lt gov John Phillps
-ag (none for now)
-treasurer (none for now)
-comptroller (none for now) (by the way they do not need to run a full slate because of a court case from a few years ago)
-Secretary of State Jesse White yes like… the dude’s name is Jesse White. He’s not THAT Jesse White but his name is Jesse White I think the Dem Jesse White is retiring and Dems have an open primary for his seat, but the LP has their own candidate named Jesse White. Kind of interesting…
Feel free to double check me but I have a pretty good source.
Thought you might wanna know about that, John, have a good night. 😀
Correcting, yup, once this new map is approved, the IL-16 race coverage of Kinzinger vs. Lauf as we’ve known it to date, will be over.
And I doubt any legal challenge will prove fruitful, including MALDEF.
That doesn’t mean the fundraising is unimportant for Kinzinger and Lauf, especially Kinzinger, whose fundraising has steadily declined from the nearly $1.2 million in Q1, to $800K Q2 to $562K Q3 (factoring out the 146K Kinzinger transferred from his PAC in Q3 the real number is $400K), high dollar donors like everyone else knew this race is over as the current IL-16 is over.
Because Kinzinger has $3.3 million in the bank, will he run for U.S. Senate?
We’ll see.
Libertarians?
We’ll see if their official channels confirm the slate, but they won’t be on the ballot until next summer, and a lot can happen between now and then.
Will be interesting to see if that Libertarian Jesse White dude is legit (remember, if his name was from a name change in last 3 years, he must be listed on ballot with his previous name as a “formerly known as…”).
If he is legit, the Democrats will find a legal way to toss him from the ballot, knowing Libertarians don’t have money for court fight.
We’ll see what Lauf does given new map.
Honestly, she’s better off not running for Congress given her recent past, but we’ll wait and see.
It’ll still be interesting to see her numbers, and see what Club Millennial, Inc. will do next.
ICYMI, Dick Uihlein’s name has surfaced recently bankrolling a Club Millennial, Inc. candidate in Arkansas primarying Trump-backed 2-term U.S. Senator John Boozman via super PAC route.
Coincidentally, Lauf has also been quietly (via a couple of retweets) backing Jake Bequette’s U.S. Senate challenge in Arkansas.
Could Uihlein be doing same for other candidates (this could be where Lauf’s working against Jeanne Ives in 2018 primary could really haunt her)?
Mr. Lopez, I don’t see a RINO every becoming a Senator here in Hellinois.
The earned the right to pay no property taxes lady is an Obama hand picked Senator, she is Golden and the other light in the loafers guy is not ready to let the other light in the loafers guy fill his shoes.
Stormy, and if Kinzinger does run for U.S. Senate, which candidate in the Republican primary field will stop him from winning the primary?
Real conservatives and Trump-backers will not back Kinzinger, but they have two options, either Bobby Piton, or Eric Wallace.
Many conservatives don’t like Piton, so Wallace, in spite having no chance to win, will get their votes.
Net net, Kinzinger wins U.S. Senate primary easily.
No. Kinzinger would not easily win a primary. His opponents will make sure that voters know that Kinzinger joined the reckless Democrats that impeached Trump on a BS issue in the Democrat controlled House. His opponents will make sure that voters know that Kinzinger is beholden to the wretched and evil Democrat Pelosi and disses his Republican House Leader, McCarthy.
bred – if his opponents have no money, how will they let anyone know anything?
Mr. Lopez, if they run/win a primary and lose the general election to a Democrat in a solid BLUE Democrat city/state, did the tree really fall in the woods?
Winning a primary gets you an orgasm and losing a General, well that’s it.
Trump will not waste time and money to just RUN somebody for a seat there is NO chance of winning in a state he has no chance of winning.
That’s why 30 years ago a Democrat never ran for office in this solid RED County.
Almost all the seats were RED running unopposed and we could stay home on election day.
Congressman Adam Kinzinger (IL-16) released the following statement after Illinois Democrats in Springfield released their proposal for the state’s congressional map:
“I have proudly served six terms in the U.S. House and it has been an honor to do so. Following the release of the new congressional maps for Illinois, my team and I will spend some time looking them over and reviewing all of the options, including those outside the House.
“This redistricting process has been anything but transparent, which comes as no surprise to anyone. I believe the people of Illinois deserve better.”
https://capitolfax.com/2021/10/15/new-congressional-maps-released/
BecauseScience,
Thank you, I did see that over on Capitol Fax.
Let’s all remember, this is only a 1st draft of the congressional map released this morning (10/15).
I don’t believe it’s the final version of the map, as I can’t believe the Democrats would have left three districts to be so competitive, particularly IL-14.
While on the draft, IL-14 lost the more conservative portion of Lake County, particularly, Antioch Township, it gained all of the city of DeKalb, including the NIU campus area.
Plus, it’s drawn close enough to Rockford that an additional media market will need to be purchased for broadcast TV ad buys.
The Dems stole our thunder.
We wanted the satisfaction of voting this RINO out and bringing in that hot, Catalina Milf.
absolutely not true that it’s guaranteed Dems will get Libertarians thrown off the ballot (you are right about the name change thing, and I have no idea about the person’s details — but Jesse White isn’t an uncommon name so who knows).
They might try, they usually do, but it doesn’t mean they’re going to win.
If the paperwork is in order and the sigs are there there is nothing the Dems can do about it.
Libertarians also do have some legal help through grassroots, through the national organization, and through pro-bono lawyers so don’t assume they’ll roll over.
They’re the most consistent third party in terms of getting on the ballot — even with Illinois’ incredibly bad laws which rank as the worst or maybe second worst in the country for ballot access for minor parties.
If Libertarians have enough sigs they’ll get on the ballot and there’s nothing Dems or GOP can do about it.
Libertarians have not had a problem with that before in terms of statewide races.
And let’s not forget that Ken Shepro the GOP big shot in Kane County, who I believe Bobby Piton ran against, represented Democrats AND Republicans in various counties throughout the state trying to get Libertarians thrown off the ballot and got owned by people with no legal experience.
Ken is a lawyer and he still got whooped by people with no legal experience.
HAHAHAHA
Libertarians are well aware of their high signature requirement and the fact that they need way more than the minimum.
Their signature collecting window will have much better weather than the GOP and Democrats are going to have (which starts in January).
Personally I think it would be hilarious if Kinzinger ran for senate and lost the primary to Piton or Hubbard even with his millions of dollars.
Then he could go trash Trump on CNN which seems to be his long term plan anyway.
And I think it would be a DISASTER for Republicans if Kinzinger were the nominee for Senate much like how Rauner caused people to stay home, and that can affect downballot races too.
I hope he tries and gets embarrassed.
In regard to Lauf, if Wasserman’s maps are somewhat accurate I don’t see her running against Schakowski or Schneider.
One of the big questions I have, and you probably feel this way too, is what in the HECK is Raja doing with all his money???
That guy has crazy money…
Wondering if in the future we might get an Underwood vs Raja primary for Senate.
There are rumors that Durbin might not serve all the way through 2026.
In any case, I could see one of them replacing Durbin, and perhaps the other replacing Duckworth after her next term.
Lauf is throwing money into either races that are unwinnable where Republicans get smoked or into races where Republicans don’t need help (Indiana statewide races? Rand Paul?)
She needs to put her money into close races.
She didn’t help Oberweis who only lost by like 2 and I don’t know if she helped King either, a local millennial.
Bustos is retiring so the replacement won’t be as popular, and King will have more money and name recognition than last time.
Gop needs to play defense everywhere and minimize their losses in blue states where Dems are trying to gerrymander.
Like I said in another post, Republicans not only need to play defense but they need to build on their map.
If you lose GOP seats and gain some Dem seats is it enough to take the House?
Dems could easily go after Golden or Spanbarger, but I think they are smart enough to not do that because they know they have a narrow advantage and don’t need to be losing any seats.
And what GOP seats do you want to target if you’re a Republican?
Yeah, it makes sense for Cheney, where you know whoever wins the primary will win the general, but maybe not all of them (Katko?)… plus some of these Republicans aren’t even going to run again.
All I’m saying is pick your fights carefully.
Democrats have lists of vulnerable Republicans too (some of whom aren’t even on Trump’s bad list but are just in close districts)
You need to play defense and flip Dem seats where vulnerable.
Punishing a bad Republican is fine, but the main goal is to flip the house, and if you do want to punish a bad Republican do it in a seat where your alternative can actually win, not where you’re going to give Dems an extra seat with a Dem who is even more friendly to Biden and Pelosi, instead of a mediocre Republican who would have won.
Just be smart about it.
I’m sick of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden.
These people are a disaster.
I’d rather have a Republican I agree with 70 percent of the time with than some goofball D
If nothing changed, I’d say go ahead and challenge him cuz it’s a safe R district but that’s irrelevant cuz his seat is getting deleted anyway.
Imagine if Dems hated Sinema and Manchin so much they were willing to lose those seats to Republicans, so that they got people in the Senate who they agree with even less, and so that Republicans took control of the Senate.
We would consider that pretty stupid from a strategic point of view…
Now there are some progs who think like that, but nobody has ever accused progressive activists who harass people in bathrooms of being intelligent…
Drafts of maps. All BS. Democrats are evil and many are as dumb as a sack of rocks. Evil and wretched and stupid. Start at the top with the doofus bufoon plagiarist racist dumb Biden. Then the, “you have to pass this bill to find out what is in it” Pelosi who is INCREDIBLY in the leadership of the U.S. Congress House. Next, in the Senate, the untrustworthy guy who threatened US Supreme Court Justices, Chuck Schumer.
Bottom line, never trust ANY Democrat on anything, even if they are someone in leadership(?) to subvert in your community. They are the ones who will fulfill former USSR leader Nikita Kruchev’s prediction that the U.S. will fall to communist and socialist dictates from within.
Does Durbin have senility, dementia or other mental issues as does the buffoon Biden?
Boo hoo Adam Kinzinger!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/15/illinois-democrats-reward-never-trump-adam-kinzinger-by-redrawing-district-to-end-his-career/