Dave Wasserman reaction to draft map release:
From Twitter within the past hour from Cook Political Report with Amy Walter Senior U.S. House Editor Dave Wasserman (including a couple of additional tweets I did not capture earlier):
“This is even a bit more adventurous a gerrymander than expected.
“Illinois update: this Dem 14D-3R gerrymander is both uglier *and* less effective than I’d have expected:
“IL-03 Newman: Biden +6
“IL-14 Underwood: Biden +8
“IL-17 OPEN (Bustos): Biden +6
“All of these seats are potentially flippable in a good midterm for Rs
“All things considered: This is just a really weird map. Besides the hideous lines, it carries a big risk of turning into a “dummymander” if Republicans have a good 2022.
It’s not hard to see Dems’ 14D-3R intent turning into a 10D-7R reality if things go really awry.”
Dave Wasserman tweets, late morning 10/15/21
.
Given Wasserman’s reaction, one could think the Illinois General Assembly Democrats have not yet released the final map, and between now and the end of the veto session on October 28, it could change dramatically.
We’ll see.
McHenry County stays within 6th and 14th Districts except Riley Township proposed to 11th District
James Marter and Catalina Lauf drawn into IL-14 (looks like Jim Oberweis’ phone is about to start ringing).
Adam Kinzinger, Michael Rebresh drawn into IL-03.
Jack Lombardi stays in IL-01.
Link to draft map can be seen here.
Developing story…
LOL – this looks nothing like the Wasserman map(s).
Shake, why do I have the feeling this is not the final congressional map, and it will change significantly between now and October 28?
I’m sure it will change between now and the final version. I also expect the maps to get done next week (and not the following week).
But I still think that the Wasserman map isn’t based on actual conversations with actual people who are/will be drawing the final maps.
Shake,
Let’s see what the final version of the map looks like before we rule Wasserman didn’t talk to the right people.
Someone on Capitol Fax commented Governor Pritzker keeping Rodney Davis and Adam Kinzinger in winnable districts was to keep both of them running statewide, possibly against him.
Also, Underwood’s proposed IL-14, as Wasserman’s metrics state, is much more potential to be competitive. While Antioch Township in Lake County now removed, so are more Democrat areas of Lake County, which went to Schneider.
IL-14 gains the NIU campus plus entire city of DeKalb. While not a significant population loss, Riley Township in SW McHenry County goes to IL-11.
Leaving Underwood in a district with Jim Oberweis, Catalina Lauf, James Marter as potential Republican opponents questionable if it stays like this. Only Jerry Evans and Matt Quigley from the 2020 Republican challengers were removed from IL-14 as proposed.
Look forward to seeing the next draft.
I would think the nurse would be more than happy to see a field of Oberweis, Lauf and Marter…….
How many times can Oberweis lose?
Didn’t Underwood overperform Biden?
I see that as a long shot.
Newman… eh… maybe but now she’s going to have money and name recognition.
King is still the best chance for flipping with Bustos hitting the road.
I’m inclined to believe Shake.
I don’t think they want Underwood to be in another close race and that other map Dave posted looked a lot more favorable to her.
Wasserman’s other map would have been a better chance to get a 14-3 map.
Still say the retiring Bustos is going to be GOP’s best chance of flipping a seat and there’s where most energy should be spent (not to say you shouldn’t focus on anything else if they look close, but that would be the main one).
Kinzinger gets drawn out because they need to get rid of a district anyway and he has a really weird shaped district that can easily be absorbed.
Davis’s district would get gerrymandered cuz they can put his redder parts in other red districts and give him that funky blue string bean district.
i dont think I believe cap fax commenter bro.
I think some of the previous maps, as atrocious as they were, looked more realistic in terms of how dems will gerrymander
And whoever you run against Underwood have them not be Marter.
He’s a loser.
You might not win that seat but at the very least you don’t want her to be spending her money helping other Democrats in other districts.
She needs to at least think it will be close and Marter will get smoked like he does every time.
Marter Lauf match up would be kind of fun though to be honest I’d probably back Lauf.
She was strong in McHenry County and is much better at fundraising than Marter even though I think Marter is WAY smarter and better on issues.
Bro I’m just sick of Nancy Pelosi and these Dems.
They gotta go.
Wasserman.
What a name.
Democrat US Congress person from FL, lady with unwashed hair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Correcting, if the proposed map today is the final map, the biggest winner is Catalina Lauf.
She just had her best fundraising quarter ever (in spite of very high burn rate), and factor-out the money Kinzinger transferred from his PAC into his campaign, and Lauf raised more from donors than Kinzinger in Q3.
She now has a district with MORE of McHenry County (though she did not run in Algonquin Township last year), albeit Riley Township looks lost (it’s only 1 precinct).
Looks like the seniority and geography of Schneider, Krishnamoorthi and Foster trumped both Newman and Underwood, and in Underwood’s case, she has to compete in most of McHenry County again.
If Oberweis stays out of the primary for the new IL-14, Lauf is by far more electable, though Marter is more qualified (but he’s not electable).
Take a closer look at the map, and see who else may be in the mix if they decide to come out of retirement.
Looks like Bustos won in a district that Biden lost and Underwood’s was very close.
I know they’re shoring them up a little bit but…
This is cutting it pretty close, especially in a midterm and with Biden’s approval tumbling.
So I too am surprised they aren’t going with more ambitious maps especially when they have districts like Chuy’s and Rush’s that are like 70 or 80 percent Democrat.
But I won’t complain if Democrats lose seats…
Heck maybe they even want to lose seats so they don’t feel like all the blame is on them with a unified government.
So far they have been doing a bad job and their approval rating even with independents and Democrats is tumbling.
It’s obvious that America is disintegrating and Democrats have full power so maybe they want Republicans to have some Pyrrhic victory to pretend to blame Republicans.
Wasserman reporting many Democrats in DC are fuming over this map.
The plan was to shore up Underwood and the Bustos seat, but looks like there was little to no cooperation from Foster, Krishnamoorthi and Schneider, with Underwood and Newman getting short end of stick.
Foster got extended the most from his home base in Naperville (DuPage County), and goes all the way close to the Wisconsin border.
But Foster kept the more Democrat/populous sections of Will County, and the minority populations of the city of Aurora, though Underwood got the more affluent western portion of Aurora, west of the Fox River in Aurora Township she didn’t have before.
Bustos’s seat always seemed the hardest to shore up.
Maybe they should just accept that they could shore up basically every Democrat, get rid of Kinzinger, and put Rodney Davis in a blue seat.
Then even if King flips the seat Dems would still be in a better position (13-4 instead of 13-5.
Not sure it’s realistic to think Dems can increase their numbers in EVERY district..
Honestly they’d be better off making Raja’s district or Quigley’s district or pretty much anybody’s district a little less blue, but still blue and helping out Underwood.
I’m surprised they aren’t trying to help Underwood more, and from a strategic point of view it’s kind of dumb — but like I said if she ends up running against Marter or a weak candidate it won’t matter.
What’s the deal with Schneider’s district too?
I thought Wasserman’s old map extending his district all the way to McHenry County looked a little risky too, but they claim it wasn’t and given how blue Lake County is getting maybe it would have been safe anyway.
Well, looks like they may have fixed that but they claimed it would have been safe.. idk.
Just thought they would rather protect Underwood who is more of a rising star and is in closer elections to begin with than old Bribe Schneider.
Are them old geezers Rush and Danny Davis still planning on running?
I know those are safe D districts but they’re pretty darn old and have been around a while.
Fun fact: Obama tried to challenge Bobby Rush one time and got his butt whooped.
I thought that was funny (I don’t like Rush or Obama lol)
Is there any talk of possibly putting Bost and Miller in the same district?
I played around with a map one time and there is a way to to do that but idk how it would affect other things.
Sometimes Dems like to mess with Republicans like that, like with the legislature!
I think I like Bost and Miller more than LaHood and Rodney Davis (and of course more than Kinzinger) so hoping that does not happen!
Yeah, Foster had a funky seat in Wasserman’s last map.
At first I looked at it and went “that doesn’t look very safe” cuz it was really big and rural but then noticed it had parts of Elgin and Aurora and some other populated blue places.
I think Foster has been around a while too so people might be growing tired of him.
I could see him throwing a fit if his district isn’t safe enough but I’m surprised Raja would considering how comfortably he wins, how his current district is full of Asians (like him), and he has ridiculous cash.
I think last time around the GOP didn’t even bother running against him lol but the Libertarians did (so I’m not sure if that means they would get ballot access there and in a few other districts that share some overlap with the current 8th — I’m not an expert on the rules maybe you know).
On second thought, Underwood’s district still has parts of Crystal Lake, Aurora, DeKalb, Oswego, possibly parts of Naperville, and Woodstock.
So Underwood is probably safe here but like I said pick a good candidate.
You might have a chance and at very least you can prevent her from sending her money elsewhere.
Lauf has the Latina thing going for her, she’s young (like Underwood), and female so that’s all good going against Underwood.
She also doesn’t have a lisp and is a bit more forceful/affirmative in her answers than Underwood who can be kind of waffly.
I think Lauf would be a better candidate than Marter — she just needs to stop burning so much money and do more debate prep so she doesn’t have embarassing moments like that ERA botch.
She’s actually not stupid when you get her off the cuff and she’s acting natural, though sometimes she comes across as an airhead.
I have noticed she has gotten better in interviews, so that’s a good sign.
A lot of this “political training” makes people sound too one dimensional.
I have been to a lot of training.
They want you to stay on message and repeat yourself a lot but imo it can make candidates sound dumb and phony.
You can sound tough but not like an automaton.
She has to be herself a little more.
She has some cool interests too that she shouldn’t be afraid to talk about because it humanizes her.
Underwood is kind of a stiff.
She might dress ok, and is fairly smart, but she’s kind of a bore and isn’t very cool.
She is fairly approachable, even talking to people who don’t agree with her, but I think Underwood has a little bit of a thin skin.
(Me and several other people have gotten under her skin — and she didn’t like it much! And most of us weren’t even rude!)
Correcting, yes, if the final IL-14 stays mostly the way it was initially drafted, and if Lauf switches to run for IL-14, much will improve for Lauf, given her fundraising through September 30.
She’ll immediately be on NRCC Young Guns list, and very likely be endorsed by many sitting Members of Congress in addition to Madison Cawthorn.
She’ll also be eligible for super PAC money, and she is well known to Club for Growth.
I do anticipate Lauf will face primary opposition, and it starts with Jim Oberweis.
There are other potential Republican candidates who also are viewed favorably by locals, and many are not ready to take a chance on Lauf, even if national Republicans are ready.
And do not forget, the people who backed Sue Rezin last year, and blame Lauf for Oberweis winning the primary, are still around.
Also, people haven’t forgotten she was slow to back Oberweis last year and gave him minimal help, and no financial help.
And, all her out-of-state high-priced consultants will not play well with locals, including the presence of the Twombley Brothers from Dallas (Allen) and Kim Klacik’s Red Renaissance PAC plus Arsenal Media.
Lauf still has maturity issues, she has yet to prove herself to locals, in spite of all her earned media appearances.
She’ll no longer be running against Kinzinger, and her opponents will play back both her ERA gaffe from last year, and how she lost her one and only showdown with an elected Democrat in Cristina Castro, though it wasn’t a fair fight.
And she has no real accomplishments in her own name, including in business, and in life.
We’ll see how things work out, including what the final map will look like, but for now, Lauf isn’t the shoo-in nominee in the new 14th.
John – I know that you’re impressed with Lauf’s fundraising (and it IS an impressive raise number), but good god that burn rate is ridiculous.
It doesn’t really matter how much you raise if you spend it all on consultants not on communicating with voters.
Shake, yes, I’m concerned about Lauf’s burn rate and why I started tracking it on the FEC quarterlies, and not just hers, but other members of Republican Club Millennial, INC and frankly all candidates.
Congressman Madison Cawthorn (NC-11) for 2nd str8 quarter had a burn rate over 100%.
Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13) had a > 100% burn rate, too, and she was endorsed by Trump last month!
While not a millennial, Congressman Byron Donalds (FL-19) had > 100% burn rate in 3rd Quarter.
That’s part of the maturity issues Lauf has, and it will haunt her until she can get it under control.
Yeah, and I was one of the main critics of Lauf for several things — including her not helping Oberweis!
But the way I see it Oberweis has had his chances over and over.
Time to move on!
And in regard to Rezin I think she just blew it with her red flag vote and taking money from the energy company.
Lauf is still a flawed candidate but I can’t see Oberweis winning a rematch in a district that’s potentially bluer this time (maybe that’s debatable, but her money is growing and Oberweis is getting older) and Rezin is just sort of a bore and isn’t well known up in the northern part of the district.
Lauf did well her.
She has made a lot of connections.
Many of them I saw as inorganic and undeserved but the fact is she has them now.
If it were a four way race with Rezin, Lauf, Marter, and Oberweis I’d probably pick Lauf based almost exclusively on probability of winning.
Rezin had some really impressive writing but she was a lackluster campaigner.
Lauf at least brings excitement.
Marter is probably with me most on issues but he is a loser and can’t raise money.
Oberweis.
He’s ok but I feel like he’s just had his chance and blew it too many times.
None of these people are ideal, but I think Lauf might have the best chance.
And like I said you don’t even necessarily have to win but you want to at least make Underwood scared so she isn’t sending her money off to some other place.
If Marter were the nominee I think Underwood would feel zero pressure from him.
Burn rate is def a problem she needs to get rid of the grifters.
What are they doing for her that justify so much money being spent?
if I recall recall, Rezin was better than most other candidates in terms of burn rate but I just think the red flag law and energy bill is gonna hurt her too much.
Rumor wise have you heard anything about Rezin or Oberweis or is that just wild speculation?.
Can’t remember off the top of my head but looking at that map it kind of looks like Rezin wouldn’t even be in the 14th district and that was one of her big problems last time (not living in the district — even if barely outside of it)
…For some reason districts 2, 3, 11, 15, and 17 REALLY bother me.
I think people from both parties could agree to that.
We really need some kind of COMPACTNESS clause that can get enforced.
Not gonna rant about each one and my individual problems with them but… just look at them bro.
On second thought it’s probably a 14-3 map (with district 3 probably being a bit closer than they would have liked to hope for) but the whole map just looks really messed up.
Probably 12 and 10 are the only decent/appropriate kind of shaped districts lol
Young Guns are designed to lose.
Correcting, you hit some key points, but one I respectfully disagree with is Rezin and the red flag law.
Rezin lost the primary and came in 2nd due to lack of money to stay on TV during the crucial last 3 weeks of the primary campaign, plus she wasn’t on broadcast TV. Voters didn’t have constant reminders Rezin had the newspaper endorsements (all but one) which gave 3rd party proof she’s the candidate who could beat Underwood.
In addition to Oberweis’ name ID, he had the support of local party leaders and committeeperaons which had him going into early voting big time, including in McHenry County.
Lauf’s grassroots surge in last 3 weeks only worked in McHenry County, not across the district, but enabled Lauf to finish a respectable 3rd, without being on TV ad once.
What made the primary really close was the super PAC spending in last 2 weeks of primary campaign — brought Oberweis down, but didn’t raise anyone up, namely Gradel and Rezin, who had outside support.
Gradel waited too long to spend his war chest to unleash his one, award-winning TV spot on broadcast TV.
Rezin was dark in TV advertising when Congressional Leadership super PAC spent its nearly million dollar attack independent expenditure against Oberweis.
Lauf still has major flaws, including maturity issues, and as Jesse Sullivan getting intense scrutiny, especially on the “stolen valor” he’s apparently been doing, Lauf will get similar, on a variety of issues I’ve barely scratched the surface (questionable business ownership, San Francisco-based business of her sister, etc.).
And yes, Lauf hiring all these out-of-state consultants not only contributing to her high burn rate, but matches the issue concerning her stretch-of-business-ownership that the San Francscio-based biz has created jobs in Illinois.
Right now, Kim Klacik is an easy target, which is why Lauf has been distancing herself from Klacik since April, even before the Candace Owens feud erupted in June.
Boo Hoo Adam Kinzinger!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/15/illinois-democrats-reward-never-trump-adam-kinzinger-by-redrawing-district-to-end-his-career/
The very minimum Rezin needs to do in regard with red flag laws (and like I said, does she even live in this new district??) is to promise she won’t back it at the federal level.
Bad enough she supported it at the state level, but it could help her a little with the gun people to not support red flag laws as a federal lawmaker.
Still think there is more energy behind Lauf, although Rezin is more knowledgeable.
State and federal politics or even district vs statewide politics are just different though and I’m sure you are aware.
For example, Kinzinger or even someone like Rodney Davis do fine in their districts but if they were to run statewide, they’d have problems.
Or Darren Bailey.
He’s populare where he lives, and if were to run congress downstate I’m sure he could win, but I see him as having zero chance statewide.
Different forms of government are just built different and Lauf has built her reputation on fighting libs and supporting Trump while Rezin’s schtick has always been more suited for Illinois (to her credit, she is probably quite knowledgeable about this proposed new district).
Lauf maybe gets some advantage with Latinas and with younger people; but overall Rezin would probably have a better net performance with women because women would see Rezin as more experienced in life.
Hard to say.
They both have a set of strengths.
Should be very interesting if your rumors are true!
In regard to Marter and Oberweis, I see them both as unelectable and in Marter’s case is bad at raising money too.
At least Oberweis is a cool rich ice cream man who gave me free orange sorbet and drives an armed truck into the ghetto to give poor people food.
I don’t see Marter’s appeal “Oh I believe in the Constitution!”
Yeah, that argument barely worked 20 years ago how is it going to work now?
Honestly what the HECK is Marter going to do with 7 thousand dollars, come on man be real…
You’re going against Lauren Underwood who is practically a celebrity as far as politicians go.
so yeah if this were a four way race I’d lean towards Rezin or Lauf.
Would need to study the district more though. and who knows if this will even be the map. Wasserman likes to doodle a lot of fake maps!!!
Like I said it still might not winnable but at least keep Underwood from spending her money elsewhere.
Not sure what you think of King’s.
I’m kinda sad that they threw in like rockford and quad cities and peoria and bloomington there.
But on the plus side at least Bustos is gone!
Maybe even with that seat you can keep Democrats focused on winning a seat that they have been used to winning.
Newman’s district (3) is kind of interesting.
It’s getting kind of late so won’t get into all of that.
Plenty of rural areas, but plenty of suburbs too .
Overall she’s probably safe For her it might be the same thing you might at least want to keep it so she is worried about it being competitive, not running some Arthur Jones guy who is going to get whooped and so she can throw her money into other districts.
Best case scenario like you said Republicans actually pull off some surprises though!
That would be great.
But you can’t nominate some idiot just because “i like him” or “he’s a strong conservative” politics is more complicated than that.
That one district…i think it’s two?
would be nice if it didn’t extend all the way into the southern portion of Chicago and southern part of Cook County!
Plenty of it looks fine like it goes down to into Kankakee County, and even more rural areas in Will, but I’m sure that’s a very safe D district overall. ..tbh it’s a safe district but I still think it would be funny if people went into dolton or south holland and took the fight to her lmao
Whatever.
Let’s see what they go with.
Whatever it is I think Republicans should give them hell.
Like that old district that had Schneider’s district extending out to McHenry County I’d make his ass work for that.
I can’t see him doing well in Hebron or Spring Grove and it looks like they fixed that.
The biggest loser here is probably Rodney Davis.
Poor Rodney 🙁 idk what can be done about that.
Every district I’ve seen gives him some goofy string bean district going from e st louis through springfield and maybe decatur and maybe even all the way to parts of champaign and he has already been tough races.
I feel bad for the guy.
Have you ever see his opponent?
What’s her name?
Londrigan?
With the crazy eyes???
Yikes.
I saw interviews of her and she isn’t even smart…
why would we want her to make federal laws, especially when Dems already control all branches of gov??
It’s not looking good John.
Hopefully we get an upset at least somewhere!