UPDATE 10/24/21: Last Wednesday, I attended University of Chicago’s Insitute of Politics forum titled, “Drawing Districts: It’s Not Just for the Hunger Games” with Cook Political Report with Amy Walter Senior U.S. House Editor Dave Wasserman and POLITICO‘s U.S. House reporter Ally Mutnick co-chairing discussion including remote guests Adam Kincaid of the National Republican Redistricting Trust and Kelly Burton of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
After the hour and 20 minute program and after the crowd had left the room, Mr. Wasserman kindly gave me 10 minutes of his time to talk about Illinois’ congressional remap.
Wasserman compared Illinois Democrats in the General Assembly (ILGA) with Texas Republicans in the Texas State Legislature whose objective, in spite of flowery words ILGA Democrats use like “diversity” of Illinois, both states’ majority leadership drew maps to maximize their respective party’s advantage in the composition of the state delegation sent to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Texas Republicans got to draw and are about to approve a congressional map dividing 38 districts, as Texas received two new House seats in the 2020 Census. ILGA Democrats are drawing a map with 17 districts, having lost a House seat with the Census.
Given the backdrop, Wasserman sees multiple opportunities for Democrat infighting, which has played out since the issuance of the first draft congressional map on October 15, and playing out in the 2nd release on October 23.
ILGA Democrats have competing interests, including:
- Census data to justify a 2nd Hispanic U.S. House district
- Pressure to elect the most Democrats possible in 2022 in order for the U.S. House to remain in Democrat control
- Give Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D, Naperville) an easier path to reelection – no more close calls like in 2020
- Draw a map with a way to make freshman Republican Congresswoman Mary Miller (Oakland) a one termer
- Governor JB Pritzker: Make sure Republican Congressmen Rodney Davis (Taylorsville) and/or Adam Kinzinger (Channahon) don’t run for governor in 2022
Wasserman agreed with most of the above list, and shared with me an astonishing possibility if some of the above were not achieved — a potential public veto threat, particularly if the 2nd Hispanic district is not part of the new congressional map.
Definitely, one can read into a real, unspoken reason for a veto threat to include the governor’s last bulletpoint objective not being met could also draw a veto threat.
Given the 2nd map draft released late Saturday afternoon, the ILGA Democrats and Governor Pritzker appeared to all have compromised, while the governor appears to have gotten his way.
Why is Republican Congressman Rodney Davis the only one of the 5 Republicans in the U.S. House from Illinois the not drawn into a district against another Republican congressional incumbent? Looks like Governor Pritzker is more concerned about a Davis Republican gubernatorial bid then a possible Kinzinger statewide bid.
So the two Republicans drawn into the new IL-16, Kinzinger and Congressman Darin LaHood (R, Peoria) will decide who will seek reelection to the House, and who will run for something else next year, most likely U.S. Senate or another statewide office other than governor.
According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings through September 30, LaHood had $3.9 million in the bank, while Kinzinger had $3.3 million. Definitely enough federal campaign funds to launch a U.S. Senate bid in 2022.
Yup, JB Pritzker got his way.
Below is the updated tote board for Legacy IL-16 candidates FEC filings, with the version 2 map district of residence for each candidate, if known, applied:
REMINDER: The version 2 ILGA Democrats’ draft map may not be the final version voted on by the ILGA this coming week. While the v2 map is close to the final version, there could be some tweaks before final passage.
=====================
From Senior U.S. House Editor Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report with Amy Walter tweets shortly after 5PM CDT Saturday, 10/23/21:
“Breaking: As predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It’s still about as ugly as before, though.”
On the 2nd official draft, McHenry County is split between 5 congressional districts:
- IL-08: Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D, Schaumburg)
- portions of Grafton Township including part of Algonquin, Lake in the Hills and all of Lakewood
- IL-09: Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D, Chicago)
- southern Algonquin Township including villages of Algonquin, Lake in the Hills, Cary and Fox River Grove
- IL-10: Congressman Brad Schneider (D, Deerfield)
- northern McHenry County including Richmond, Burton and Hebron Townships plus village of Bull Valley
- IL-11: Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville)
- All of the cities of Crystal Lake, McHenry and Woodstock
- All of the village of Huntley (both McHenry and Kane counties)
- Riley, Coral, Marengo and western half of Grafton townships
- Home of Catalina Lauf’s parents which is Lauf’s address, continuing her political unicorn year
- IL-16: Congressmen Adam Kinzinger (R, Channahon) and Darin LaHood (R, Peoria)
- City of Harvard
- Chemung, Alden, Dunham and Hebron townships
Wasserman tweets continue:
“As I hinted last Sunday, this version creates a new, much-anticipated Latino seat (IL-03, no incumbent) on the north side of Chicago.
“But, it would do so by merging the homes of Reps. Marie Newman (D) and Sean Casten (D) in a reconfigured (IL-06) [along with former Congressman Dan Lipinski].
“This version also (very blatantly) merges the homes of Reps. Mary Miller (R) and Mike Bost (R) in a new #IL12, and puts Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)’s house into IL-16 so he’d technically be paired with [current] IL-18 Rep. Darin LaHood (R) in this proposed version of IL-16.
“Here’s why I’d consider this new 14D-3R proposal a “safer,” more brutal partisan play (vs. first draft):
#IL03 Newman (D) – Biden +12 (Biden +6)
#IL14: Underwood (D) – Biden +12 (Biden +8)
#IL17: Bustos (D) – Biden +9 (Biden +6)”
This is the first map version where both Congressman Sean Casten and Congresswoman Lauren Underwood are completely removed from McHenry County, and Casten has been paired with Congresswoman Marie Newman (D, LaGrange) in a very possible Democratic primary.
Illinois Democrats also made sure former Congressman Dan Lipinski would not be a problem, making sure his Chicago home drawn into the proposed IL-06.
In case you missed it, Chicago Sun-Times‘ D.C. Bureau Chief Lynn Sweet’s notes from a meeting in Washington among 11 of the 13 U.S. House Democrats, led by Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D, IL-02), also Democratic Party of Illinois Chair.
With the draft map released Saturday, and the notes reported here, one can see which points were accurate and reflected in the latest draft congressional map.
What happened to Bob Cruz (R-Oak Lawn)?
He was supposed to defeat Marie Newman in the 3rd Congressional District.
🤔😦
I wanna see the Newman, Casten and Lipinski bloodbath!!
Bring it on baby!! 👺👹🤡
Look at the map that the controlling Democrat Party designed.
How can they possibly justify the 13th or 17th districts?
They can’t. They are evil.
The Democrats are the evil and reckless and wretched political party. The party that opposed Republican President Abraham Lincoln’s efforts to free the slaves and the party that instituted Jim Crow. The party of a huge racist, Democrat Governor George Wallace. The party of Democrat Senator Robert Byrd who was a Klan recruiter. The party of the current moron Joe Biden who admired the racist Robert Byrd and himself has been a racist by his remarks. Why does this party still exist? Are voters nuts? Or just stupid and brainwashed by a forth estate media worse than the Communist Pravda of the old USSR.
What a joke of a proposed map.
Look at the 13th.
We have to have the liberal UofI brain dead kids voting all the way down with the St Louis MO corruption.
Here’s a novel idea.
Let’s beat the dead horse.
Clean up the voter roles, get rid of the cheat machines and force anyone voting to prove who they are and where they live as well as eliminate the 2022 pandemic farce to force the corrupt mail in ballots.
Damn there I go again being a racist for thinking blacks are too ignorant to get an id yet they have a free cellphone from the gov’t which requires an id to own.
Sorry if my I was channeling Archie Bunker.
Scumbag DemocRATS!
Illinois 13 is a ”safe” district created for Rodney Davis-R
✌️😎
Why not split the County into 8 districts?
RINOs like ‘rainblow’ flag activist Buehler won’t mind a bit!
I don’t want to live in the Dave Wasserman interview district.
Wouldn’t this put Mary Miller in like Robin Kelly’s district? So you’d have parts of Ford and Livingston county which are farm land and the south side of Chicago in the same district. Why do they care about her so much? She’s a minority voice within a minority party. If Republicans were a majority, if anything, they might have trouble with Mary Miller as some Freedom Caucus radical threatening their agenda. If Miller weren’t representing the new 15th, who would? Is there any current GOPer that lives there? Or could you end up with someone Dems hate just as much or more than Miller? I think they’re just jealous of her because she’s like 60 something and looks better than most Democratic women in their late 30’s.
Would this put Lauf in 16 or 11? 16 looks like one of the 3 GOP seats (along with 12 and 15), but I’m guessing that is where LaHood lives too? Or would LaHood live in the new 17 (I’m pretty sure he lives in Peoria). Could they be setting up a King vs LaHood primary?
Does this put Rodney Davis in 15 or 13? I know they wanted to make his district 13 Dem by turning it into a little worm that goes from Champaign through like Decatur and Springfield and down to E St Louis and it looks like this map would do that.
Look at 13 and 15 how they wrap around each other like some Yin Yang doodle.
Look at district 16: it looks like Bart Simpson dancing and wearing a funny hat.
District 14 is gross too when you look at its shape. It looks like some kind of long-mandible ant laid on its back.
District 9 will represent parts of the north side of Chicago and, like, Huntley by turning into a little worm.
Look at district 17. It’s like some ghoul scheming and rubbing his hands together.
Lol honestly none of these districts look reasonable, except maybe 12. Look at 3, look at 5, look at 7. This is all garbage.
These maps are seriously hideous. And yes this is way worse than the other one you posted. Look at Indiana or Iowa or Nebraska or Wisconsin. You’d be surprised that some purple and red states are pretty fair. Not to say Texas will be. I don’t know what Georgia, Florida, or NC are planning.
After messing around with that 538 tool on redistricting in each state, where you can see proposed maps, I’m actually convinced now that these independent commissions do a much better job than legislatures. I was skeptical of them, but the evidence speaks for itself. I still think this single member district plurality stuff combined with a two party primary system is going to end up leading to more political division and political extremism and America will collapse, but as far as that system goes the independent commissions do a better job at trying to not throw all power behind one party or the other.
Even Oregon which is arguably loopier than Illinois politically had a more reasonable looking map shapewise. Republicans could still end up with 2 out of 6 while Illinois is planning a map that would give Republicans 3 out of 17 seats. Technically, one of those seats in Oregon is a toss up, but currently only 1 out of 6 of their reps are Republican anyway, so Republicans won’t be regressing there and could possibly net a seat despite the map being listed as a Republican -1 (I guess at some point the GOP botched a seat that was supposed to be safe?). In Illinois, Republicans would go from 5 seats to 3.
Is this new map a Hispanic two seater? If blacks have three seats why should Hispanics only get 1? There are more Hispanics in the state than blacks, but Hispanics should only get 1/3rd as many as the blacks?
Correcting,
Mary Miller’s family farm is in Oakland, which is the furthest point north in IL-12. She’s definitely in the same proposed district with Congressman Mike Bost.
Rodney Davis’ Taylorville home definitely in proposed IL-15. He would no longer have to face the former Biden and Pritzker administration lady running in IL-13.
Agreed on mandible shape on IL-14, but Lauren Underwood’s proposed new district is anchored by strong Democrat voting blocs in Joliet, Plainfield, Shorewood along with her home town of Naperville in Will County. Throw in the heavily minority portion of eastern Aurora in Kane County, cities of Sycamore and DeKalb/NIU, and it is definitely a safer district for her, though it looks funny.
You’re right, these maps are hideously gerrymandered, and Illinois Democrats in Springfield turned it into a modern art form.
It’s still likely legal.
The new map is a two Hispanic *district* map, but does not mean an Hispanic will be elected to represent the new IL-03.
I’m going to do a separate article on what a black and Hispanic district really mea
By the numbers, the new IL-03 is an Hispanic minority influencer district.
Re 8:39 PM today:
“You’re right, these maps are hideously gerrymandered, and Illinois Democrats in Springfield turned it into a modern art form.”
Perhaps Hunter Biden could be advisor to Democrats in States they control.
Yeah, like abstract art or postmodern art.
So this does accomplish that set of criteria you listed.
-Puts Miller in a district set up for a GOP primary (probably in a district where Bost would be more well known)
-Gives Hispanics another seat (which provides more context to the recent article about Casten and Newman)
-Gives more Dem seats including the 13th, making 17th safer for whoever might succeed Bustos, and eliminating another
-Makes a safer district for Underwood than other proposals
-Incentives Rodney Davis to run for U.S. House instead of something statewide by giving him a safe district
This also takes Kinzinger out of a safe district, but you say they didn’t want him to run for something statewide?
Maybe they don’t care.
Kinzinger is hated by a lot of Trumpers.
You’d have to unite the GOP and get swing voters to win a statewide election as a Republican.
Kinzinger can’t do that.
I always found it an absurd notion that Democrats were worried about him running statewide.
Is LaHood in the new 16th district or 17th?
Would Lauf be in the new 16th or 11th.
The lines look very close and that could all play out in a few funky ways.
Dems could draw LaHood into the 17th but would they want a no-name person on their ticket running against an established politician?
Do they feel that good about the map?
Plus they already know him and it looks like the 16th is going to be GOP anyway.
Wouldn’t they want to put LaHood in the 16th?
Are they putting LaHood and Lauf both in the 16th thinking it could waste LaHood’s resources and be a difficult district for Lauf to win a primary in?
Or might they be putting Lauf in the 11th which is a safe Dem seat and LaHood in the 17th because they *do* feel good about their chances there?
Then that would leave GOP to run some no-name person in the new 16th, and probably get rid of LaHood and Lauf.
But then they would be risking an unknown: perhaps some fellow who makes Mary Miller look like Walter Mondale comes along and wins the 16th…
I can’t see them putting Lauf in the 16th and LaHood in the 17th.
That would make the least amount of sense to me.
If the 16th is going to be GOP you’d think they would prefer LaHood to Lauf or really anybody else.
But I was right that district 2 stretches from east central Illinois to either the south side of Chicago or if not then definitely south Cook County.
Those people shouldn’t be in the same district.
That’s ridiculous.
Vermilion County might as well be Alabama.
Why should some grits eating farmers be in the same district with “da hood”?
You mean to tell me the representative is going to balance out two alien cultures and seek some kind of moderate position?
No, that’s not what this is about; that’s not what is going to happen.
It’s an abomination is what it is!
It’s nothing but a power grab.
Look at 16 and 1.
WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE TO YOU?
It looks like a guy kicking a baby stingray.
District 10, which isn’t really that badly shaped compared to these other districts but should be more compact, looks like a handgun pointing to the left.
District 9 sorta looks like a bat.
Like the kind one makes soup with, not a baseball bat…
Correcting – Lauf is in the 11th (Foster), and Lahood and Kinzinger are in 16 (John says this in the article).
Also, just a reminder that you do not need to live within the boundaries of a congressional district in order to run for and represent the district. You only need to live in the same state.
Per:
https://www.brown.edu/news/2017-11-07/redistricting
“Researchers devise an algorithm to combat gerrymandering
A team of computer scientists led by Brown’s Philip Klein has come up with a new algorithmic approach to drawing congressional districts that would prevent contortions for partisan gain.
(A Map of NY with districts evenly divided is shown in the article)
New York…un-gerrymandered: A new algorithm divvies up Congressional districts evenly while making the processes difficult to manipulate for partisan gain.
PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — As the Supreme Court considers Gill v. Whitford, a challenge to the practice of partisan gerrymandering that may rewrite the rules used to draw congressional districts, a team of computer scientists has come up with a new algorithmic approach to redistricting that’s less political and more mathematical.
In a paper posted on arXiv.org, the researchers describe a computerized method for dividing state populations evenly into compact polygonal districts that average six or fewer sides. The neatly arrayed districts are a stark contrast to gerrymandered districts, which are stretched and contorted to provide an overall congressional advantage for one political party or another.”
Shake, thank you for clarifying.
Concerning IL-16, LaHood vs. Kinzinger, in spite of these two men having different views of President Trump, will not face each other on the June primary ballot.
The two are close, and their congressional staffs are close, too.
One will NOT seek reelection to the House. Only question is, who.
Kinzinger has the seniority, being a 6-termer vs. 4-termer LaHood. Kinzinger has said publicly he wants to stay in the House, and not outside realm of possibility LaHood would voluntarily bow out on seniority alone.
LaHood has nearly $4 million and remembering his old man was part of President Obama’s cabinet, could attract crossover votes in a possible General against Senator Duckworth from voters disillusioned with President Biden.
A LaHood U.S. Senate bid will bring Catalina Lauf as the main primary opponent against Kinzinger in new IL-16, and very unknown how Lauf’s campaign will play near Peoria. Lauf will run there because if she wins primary, formidable Democrat opposition will not be an issue.
If Kinzinger chooses to run for U.S. Senate, LaHood runs for reelection in new IL-16, Lauf runs for IL-11 as she’s too young to run for Senate against Kinzinger.
There is speculation, with baby due in January Kinzinger may retire from elective office. I don’t believe this, but significant life change for Kinziger and his wife makes it possible, but not probable.
Who the f…. is this Dave Wasserman? WTSHTF he’ll be trying to hide.
Oh, LaHood and Kinzinger in the same district, eh.
Thanks for clarifying that and sorry I missed it. Sometimes I don’t read things so good. For some reason I pictured Kinzinger’s hometown as not that far west from Chicago. He must live near the corner of 16, 1, and 14. I assumed he was in the 1st district and his home was further east. I always underestimate how large Will County is.
Interesting analysis on LaHood and possible statewide race. Not sure why Dems would want that though if what you’re saying is true that he could be a strong gen election candidate. If Kinzinger were the candidate I wonder if that means he could blow it if enough Trump voters leave it blank. If that happened, Republicans would have 2 seats and Dems 15.
So what you’re saying is we COULD get a Kinzinger vs Lauf primary, but Kinzinger would live in the district and Lauf would live outside of it by like… what a couple of feet? lol
And how much of a +Dem district is 11? It has Naperville and Aurora in it. That can’t be good for GOP. Bill Foster is like the most bland Democrat in Illinois but he has experience. Foster vs Lauf would be such a surreal contest. It’s almost comical to think about.
It sounds like Dems are setting up a lot of gambles or risk calculation for Republicans across the board. If I do this then, if I do that then, but then what about other thing, what if my opponent does this or that? What a headache. Like would LaHood want to run for Senate when he’d have a much easier time getting re-elected in the House? Would Lauf want to run against Foster (and do Dems even care)? That sort of thing. They’re evil and totally power hungry but they are good at it. American politics is like a black magic of sorts.
LaHood should just run in the 16th regardless of what Kinzinger or Lauf do. That probably makes no sense to him, unless you figure that you have no chance for Senate or Governor. Maybe LaHood could run for AG, SoS, or Treasurer. He might have a chance at one of those, but I don’t see anybody defeating Duckworth or Pritzker. Would he even be interested in something like that though? By the way, Republicans don’t seem to be giving one hoot about any of those races or comptroller. In the past, some of those were high profile contests but this cycle it’s been completely meh.
Correcting,
According to Scott Kennedy’s Illinois Elections Data research firm, the proposed IL-11 was a Biden +15 last fall, and a Clinton +10 in 2016.
Additionally and interestingly, it was also only a Pritzker +2.3 in 2018 and a Duckworth + 3 in 2016.
With the right Republican nominee, it could be competitive, which brings up another possibility for 2022.
Kinzinger seeks reelection to the House in IL-11, and LaHood runs for reelection in IL-16.
As we all know, any Illinois registered voter can run for Congress in any congressional district in Illinois.
Kinzinger may even commit to move into IL-11 if reelected to Congress next year.
Kinzinger is definitely known well outside the boundaries of his current district.
Something he’d have to think about, especially with metrics Lauf did not run well outside of McHenry County in the IL-14 Republican primary last year.
These possibilities are amazing!
Now all we need to find out is where Jeopardy champion and record holder James Holzhauer lives.
I know it’s in Naperville, but wondering if it would be 14, 6, or 11.
If it’s 11 he might want to give it a go.
He’s a professional gambler so he probably doesn’t want to give up on all the money but someone should bring it up to him on Twitter or wherever.
**Don’t know anything about his politics just think it would be great and I can’t picture Republicans winning those seats anyway so why not?
It would be exciting and funny, and if anybody is going to beat a Democrat it would be him.
He’s smarter than them and is a nationally known figure and could win a bunch of independents and soft Dems. H
e would destroy them in a debate too.
Convince me why I’m wrong.**
On the other hand, dumb might be better than smart.
Look at all of the ridiculous comments and remarks that Joe Biden made in the two-year run up to the Nov 2000 election. Such as him telling parents to turn on the record players at night to help educate their children. In spite of his stupidity through the years as a senator and as a sidekick to Obama, he won in 2000. He continues his stupidity and incompetence and recklessness and amazingly, there are STILL 40+ percent of American voters who approve of him as president.
Or 8-term Democrat US Rep Hank Johnson of GA who told a U.S. Admiral at a Hearing in 2010 that the addition of more troops to the island of Guam might capsize it and tip it over.
Or Sheila Jackson Lee of TX. Or Maxine Waters who told Democrat supporters to harass and get in the faces of Trump admin personnel. Or the pencil neck geek of CA, Adam Shi**, who promoted the Russia collusion nonsense on national tv for over a year.