IL-06: Is Sean Casten Being Punished in IL Congressional Remap after Insulting West Virginia, and Senator Joe Manchin?

Sean Casten
Joe Manchin

Or is reason Casten lost seniority tiebreaker & now in potential primary with Congresswoman Marie Newman result of not passing his sponsored bills into law

One of the surprise moves with the late Saturday afternoon release of the latest draft Illinois congressional map was the proposed IL-06 combining 2-term Congressman Sean Casten (D, Downers Grove) with freshman Congresswoman Marie Newman (D, LaGrange).

How did Casten, one of three 2-term Democrats in the Illinois congressional delegation, lose the “tiebreaker” and now might face an incumbent Democrat in next year’s Democratic primary?

The other two sophomore Democrats are Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D, IL-04) and Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D, IL-14).

Newman being the only freshman Democratic Member, loses any seniority debate, so she receives no favors. Her complaining vocally, and urging her supporters to do so last week in Springfield to protest the 1st draft, was not met well by the Illinois General Assembly (ILGA) Democrats.

But with three Members with equal seniority, there’s a tie for Casten, Garcia and Underwood.

Garcia is exempt, because he represents the Hispanic voting age population IL-04.

Casten and Underwood were “frontliners” who successfully flipped red districts in 2018, and successfully won reelection last year.

Casten might have shot himself in the foot with this following unwise quote to POLITICO on the “human infrastructure” bill last Monday, as U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D, WV) fights for coal miners from his home state from being negatively impacted by climate change planks.

In case you missed it:

“If you came and said to me, ‘We will pass the CEPP [Clean Energy Performance Program] as written but we will exempt West Virginia from it,’ I would take that deal.

“Do I think that’s possible? I mean, probably not, but that would be acceptable, right? Because West Virginia is an irrelevant part of our economy.”

Congressman Sean Casten, POLITICO, 10/18/21 emphasis added

.

Not the first time Casten has insulted a fellow member of Congress and/or their constituents. Readers here remember little over two years ago, Casten called Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R, TX-02) a “racist”, from the safe distance at an Illinois town hall meeting, as covered by multiple media outlets including McHenry County Blog.

West Virginia’s Manchin, along with Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ), are the two holdout Senators who can make, or break, President Biden’s agenda, and the President called both Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D, NY) to his home in Delaware to bring the human infrastructure negotiations with Manchin to closure, nearing the $1.5 trillion price tag Manchin told Schumer back in late July.

And while Democratic leaders in ILGA are determining what the congressional remap would look like, Casten’s timing could not be any worse.

But there’s another, potential reason for Casten losing to Underwood and having to face a primary against an incumbent Democrat member of the U.S. House.

Sponsoring legislation and having it pass the House AND Senate and being signed into law:

  • Underwood: 3 sponsored bills
    • One stand-alone (H.R. 2372, 116th Congress) signed into law by President Trump, October of 2020
    • Two Underwood sponsored bills (H.R. 3525 (two components), H.R. 5444 116th Congress) becoming law through FY 2021 appropriations legislation)
  • Casten: 0 sponsored bills

Underwood’s metrics and results shows, through nearly the middle of both Members’ 2nd terms, Underwood has proven she can get things done.

Therefore, in my honest opinion, Underwood won the tiebreaker over Casten with a better record of winning passage of her legislation into law.


Comments

IL-06: Is Sean Casten Being Punished in IL Congressional Remap after Insulting West Virginia, and Senator Joe Manchin? — 19 Comments

  1. Casten is a white libtard.

    Negro and “Hispanic” libtards trump that.

    Thats the reason.

    Sorry soy boy.

    Hit the road, toad.

  2. Casten is going to be living in a cage for the last half of his useless life.

  3. Be sure to send this to all the media in West Virginia.

    The people of that state would love to know what Democrats really think of them.

    Casten isn’t expressing a fringe opinion among Democrats — he’s just dumb enough to say the quiet part out loud.

    Actually, I kind of admire that!

    At least he’s honest!

    A jerk!

    An idiot!

    But honest!

    Maybe Democrats figure an irrelevant congressman who would be better suited for talk radio is replaceable.

    Marie Newman is a congresswoman who has less seniority than Casten but far more national clout.

    She is beloved by progressives and Democrat-favoring media like MSNBC for:

    -Being one of the more progressive members of Congress

    -Being female

    -Defeating one of the last remaining pro-life and Blue Dog Democrats in Congress (Lipinski)

    -Being the mother of a transgender person

    -Arguing with Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Casten almost never makes the news unless it’s some gaffe.

    I guess that worked for Joe Biden

    Maybe Casten could run in the newly drawn third district? There is no residency requirement

    He could always move there too.

    It’s a safe district as long as he could win the primary.

  4. Oh, I love these takes. They don’t align with reality, but they’re fun to read.

    Reality: there was a decision to draw two Latino districts. In turn, an incumbent (or two) would have to be in trouble. In order to draw that second Latino district, Marie Newman was obviously going to be the one to lose out, because that is where most of the Latino votes are in order to draw that second district.

    Casten isn’t getting punished.

    Newman, on the other hand, is not very well-liked by a lot of establishment folks, so it was easy for them to mess with her district.

    If both Casten and Newman decide to run, Casten will likely be the strong favorite.

  5. Shake, I agree that Casten’s West Virginia insult is not the likeliest reason for Casten being low-man out among sophomore Democrats in the IL House delegation.

    The timing of it during remap just reminds people Casten has a bad habit of shooting his mouth off when he shouldn’t.

    Correcting, the backlash from West Virgina House Members was fierce, and Casten tried to explain himself in one of his usual multi-tweet Twitter rants, but he was foolish to say what he did, even if it likely has no bearing on the remap.

    Where Shake’s analysis fails to my logic is the seniority tie breaker, which he didn’t address.

    The metrics justify Casten losing to Underwood and being forced to run in a primary against Newman.

    Yes Newman’s unpopular with many Democrats, and getting punished by Facebook for hate speech earlier this year in a showdown with MTG was one of many of Newman’s lowlights.

    But simply put, Newman’s a freshman, and seniority, just as in unions, still rules politics.

    Casten has no legislative accomplishments in his own name.

    Only one of his bills has ever passed the House (H.R. 1815, 116th Congress) and it wasn’t even about his pet issue of climate change.

    Needless to say, Casten’s bill went nowhere in the Senate.

    Unless Shake or anyone want to claim Casten lost to Underwood solely on being a straight white GenX guy with a wife and kids, please, tell us why Casten thrown into an incumbent-on-incumbent primary if not on his lack of a record of passing his bills?

    And one should not presuppose Casten has the edge in the new IL-06 over Newman.

    He has the advantage of more money, through September 30.

    But, as POLITICO pointed out this morning, Casten has only 25% of his old district in proposed IL-06, while Newman has 39% of her old district.

    Plus, Newman will have the support of progressives and while Casten is not a pro-life Democrat (though he voted for the Hyde Amendment 3 times while in Congress thus far), Newman has already beaten an incumbent in a primary and this would be her 3rd contested primary against a Democrat incumbent.

    The primary history may be intangibles, but Newman compared to Casten is more battle-tested than he.

  6. I can assure you that the legislative record of any of the incumbents played zero role in this map. I can also assure you that getting in trouble on Facebook played no role.

    And, again, there likely had to be two Dem members of Congress thrown together if they were going to create two Latino districts. So they chose Casten over Underwood. Most likely it has to do with Underwood being somewhat of a rising star and they want to protect her, but also I don’t think that they see this as punishing Casten.

    I also don’t think that the progressives necessarily line up behind Newman over Casten. Progressives like Casten too. Casten will be able to raise money. And Casten is definitely battle-tested (one contested primaries and two contested generals), so giving Newman the advantage there is strange. And there is absolutely no way that you get the progressive energy against Casten that you got against Lipinski.

  7. Underwood would get the nod over Casten. Democrats around the nation, including Illinois, take their cue and direction from their demented, dishonest and incompetent top leader, Joe Robinette. This is what Joe said a long time ago about his possible selection of a VP:

    “Whomever I pick, preferably it will be someone who was of color and/or a different gender, but I’m not making that commitment until I know that the person I’m dealing with I can completely and thoroughly trust as authentic and on the same page [as me].”

  8. Shake, you proved my point, and made Bred Winner right when you said:

    “So they chose Casten over Underwood [to be in primary against Newman]. Most likely it has to do with Underwood being somewhat of a rising star and they want to protect her, but also I don’t think that they see this as punishing Casten.”

    How did Underwood get to be seen as “somewhat of a rising star”?

    Was it because of her youth, being a millennial and also being the youngest black woman ever elected to Congress?

    Was it due to Underwood quietly being an effective legislator, who unlike AOC, has something to show for her time being in Congress? Like getting 3 of her bills, all or in part signed into law?

    Where does that leave Casten? Chopped liver? Just along for the ride? Or simply not fitting the desired Democrat profile for being in the House including a person of color, a millennial and proven legislator getting their bills passed and signed into law?

    As far as Casten vs. Newman, the context of being battle tested is within Democrat primaries. Casten’s 2018 primary win was over a bunch of no-names, local officials and/or retreads.

    Newman faced then Congressman Lipinski twice, winning one and losing one. I stand by giving Newman the more battle-tested edge in context of a primary election.

    Going back to Underwood, looks like Dave Wasserman was right concerning the “semi-swap” of IL-14 and IL-11 he first published in a hypothetical map back in mid-March.

    While Wasserman’s maps were not 100%, just making the call on the semi-swap, plus chopping up McHenry County, were spot on.

  9. 1. re Shake

    Newman is probably more battle tested than Casten in that she defeated an incumbent and she did so last cycle. Casten ran for an open seat in 2018 and won the primary but then didn’t face competition (or anything serious that I recall) last time. You could say Newman has less exp in general elections, but I would still assume Newman to be a stronger candidate for the reasons I stated above and not sticking her foot in her mouth so often. On the other hand, Newman may be more battle tested because of her alleged ethics violation which she just settled: the one that accused her of bribing a primary opponent. Regardless, she deposed of an incumbent and that’s always impressive.

    That’s probably true about the difference of Casten and Lipinski. It maybe wasn’t so much pro-Newman as it was anti-Lipinski that got so many progs, pro-choicers, and LGBT folk involved, and that wouldn’t be nearly as much of a problem for Casten who is definitely more liberal than Lipinski.

    However, if what John says is true that more of Newman’s original district is in this new one than is Casten’s original district, that alone should give Newman the advantage.

    In terms of fundraising, you may be right. Newman has about 438k CAH compared to Casten’s 1.05m CAH. In terms of social media, Casten has 39k to Newman’s 49k. The official rep page of Casten has 21k to Newman’s official rep page of 50k. It’s possible that Newman could turn up the heat, use that social media advantage to raise money if she needed. Hundreds of k can be raised and spent in a high profile campaign in a short amount of time, but for the time being Casten has the money advantage. It’s also possible Casten could turn up the heat with corporate backing and Dem establishment backing — I don’t doubt you about Dem establishment types not liking Newman much (that’s true of Dem establishment and progressives in general).

    Dems would be punishing one or the other if Dems set them up for a primary. Are you saying they are trying to punish Newman? Or that they are just letting the chips fall where they may so that a Hispanic can potentially have a district?

    2. John, you said
    “Unless Shake or anyone want to claim Casten lost to Underwood solely on being a straight white GenX guy with a wife and kids, please, tell us why Casten thrown into an incumbent-on-incumbent primary if not on his lack of a record of passing his bills?”

    Can’t it be both? Maybe Dems are impressed with her legislative accomplishment. Shake is also right that Dems like her for being a “rising star.” I think Newman and Underwood are more of sweethearts and rising stars to Dem media and activist groups than Casten is.

    I absolutely would argue that being a married straight white gen x male with kids would come after an unmarried black childless millennial woman whose sexuality is often the subject of question. (Actually that last part is fake, but to the audience of this blog it is real..) That is how Democrats see the world.

    (Look at all the Dem commenters on this blog like Shake, Primate, and others who can’t even own up to the simple fact that experts on CRT are proponents of equity which entails some punishment of whites and Asians based solely on their group identity. Look at the most popular writers in that subject: DiAngelo, Jones, and Kendi and read what they say. There is no denying it; yet Shake and others play ignorant of this. But I’m not going to get into a big argument on CRT with these people today, so reply if you wish but don’t expect a big ruse out of me!)

    If anything, the identity issue is probably a bigger deal to people than legislative accomplishments. Look at the politicians who excite people the most. Sanders, AOC, Trump, etc. Do people go on a tangent about their “legislative accomplishments?” No. There are other reasons people like them.

    Why do you suppose Underwood was chosen in the first place by so many activist groups and establishment types (back in the 2018 primary)? Do you think the deciding factor was that she was involved with Obamacare? Even with healthcare being a big issue that year (perhaps the biggest) I still think identity played a bigger role. She was the only female in a 7 person race. I think they absolutely wanted to run a female against Hultgren. Being black means they could use race card too. She was the only minority in that primary. Suppose there were another white male in the race with healthcare exp and Underwood were not running or that Underwood were running but let’s pretend she did not have healthcare exp. Would so many have rushed to support that Obamacare person instead of Brolley, Walz, this hypothetical Underwood, etc? Let’s say you had some white male out of 6 or 7 white males running in that primary and one of them did have exp on Obamacare but then you also had a female. Wouldn’t you think the female automatically gains the advantage, if for no other reason than the so-called fair sex would show in-group preference towards that person? Maybe this is a bad example since that was such a crowded field. Maybe it can’t be compared to a 1 v 1.

    I still think voters are choosing people based on their identity though. Cal has pointed out before that females do better in elections than males. If I recall, the stat Cal cited was that on average they run 5% higher than a male counterpart. I believe this is due to females showing higher in-group preference than males, who are more open to being persuaded by faculties of reason! So this too should give Newman an advantage in the primary. If you really want to see a discrepancy, check out white vs black voters…

    3. What you’re both not acknowledging so much is that they spared Underwood. Why is she a “rising star” Shake? Is it because of her passing legislation? John, are you saying it’s because of her passing legislation? Are you two in agreement that Underwood is SO popular because she has passed 3 pieces of legislation in 3 years? Do either of you suppose the average Democratic voter could rattle off what those bills do or even know that she has accomplished legislation or know how many pieces she has gotten signed into law? Good grief!

    Sure, I could concede that might be a tie break over Casten among people drawing the districts, but I don’t think that’s the biggest reason. (I’m not sure whether Shake accepts John’s premise and if not why he supposes Underwood is a “rising star.”)

    It’s okay to admit that Democrats obsess over identity. What is different about Underwood compared to Casten? What is different about Underwood compared to Newman? Get out your Democratic social status ranking list and take a look at the candidates…

    How many years in a row for Republicans to be called “sexist” and “racist” before you guys figure out what these dogwhistles mean? I’ll answer you. A sexist is a man. A racist is a white person. You guys are either not aware of or are playing ignorant to how identity politics operates.

  10. No, I don’t think that voters, state legislators, or members of Congress think much of anything of Underwood’s legislative accomplishments.

  11. Alot of good analysis on this topic. As I continue to point out, until Tirio gets rid of the cheating ES&S machines, cleans up voter roles, eliminates mail-in voting except in extreme circumstances (i.e. military service) and goes back to the tried and true paper ballots, I feel unfortunately it is a wasted conversation. Good positions above but I just SMH that the elephant in the room just keeps getting overlooked and 2022 is almost 12 months away.

    Just my 2 cents.

  12. Correcting, to be clear, Casten did flip IL-06 in 2018 from then 6-term Peter Roskam, and fought off Jeanne Ives last year.

    Casten’s win over Roskam was impressive, and unlike Randy Hultgren in IL-14, Roskam did run a credible campaign.

    The IL-06 electorate had changed since Roskam’s first election in 2006 when he beat Tammy Duckworh in a Democrat year for the open seat. Voters had enough of Roskam.

    Last year’s win over Ives was not as impressive, and Casten benefited by having a Libertarian on the ballot taking votes away from Ives, plus ex IL Republican Chair Pat Brady working with Casten & Dems against Ives.

    In spite of those facts, Casten won with 52% of the vote.

    Like IL-14, IL-06 was overrated having Casten as Strong/safe Democrat, but result showed a “leans Democrat” rating outcome.

    But in a primary, edge goes to Newman being battle tested, as you accurately pointed out in context of stronger primary opposition.

  13. Yes, Roskam ran a better campaign than Hultgren, however, the 14th district is still much kinder to Republicans than the 6th so a Democratic victory in the 14th should be seen as a bigger deal than winning in the 6th.

    You see that in how they vote for president.

    You saw that again in the 2020 cycle with House races.

    Casten won by bigger margins both times than Underwood did.

    The 6th is simply a stronger district for Democrats, so his win was less impressive than Underwood’s in my opinion.

    While Hultgren was lazy and didn’t have high name recognition, he at least didn’t have as much negatives within his own party and with independents.

    For example, people thought Roskam overstayed his welcome (he had been in the House since 2006 and Hultgren 2010).

    They thought he was a war hawk.

    And people saw videos of him running away from townhalls and thought he was a scared weenie.

    Hultgren didn’t have any major baggage, he was just more of a ghost.

    So I’m saying there was some lack of enthusiasm with Roskam with his own voters, and maybe people leaving it blank or switching votes.

    Hultgren didn’t seem to have a problem with his own party to nearly such an extent as Roskam did.

    Hultgren’s trouble was of a different nature in my opinion.

    It would come with swing voters and independents.

    By not doing anything, he conceded many of these people to Underwood and you can see that in some of the rural precincts she won which one wouldn’t expect.

    Roskam at least put up a fight and was trying to reach people.

    Hultgren basically allowed Underwood to take all the non-committed voters because she actually reached out to them.

    She actually campaigned in places where Democrats almost never win because she knew if she get her base really excited and get the swing voters she could win.

    I still wonder if Hultgren could have successfully defended that seat because he pretty much did nothing!

    Remember how Melissa Bean lost her seat to Joe Walsh.

    She took him for a fool who had no chance.

    (That race was a lot closer though.)

    Well, he did turn out to be a fool but that’s another matter.

    I’m not arguing Casten’s win over Roskam deserves no respect.

    It was still a big deal.

    Just saying that if you’re a Democrat and you have Underwood, Casten, and Newman and you have to get rid of one, I understand them picking Casten for reasons stated in previous posts.

    Underwood would be the one they would want to keep the most which is why you see re-draws going on to make her district safer (and even safer, and even safer) for her.

    Underwood occupies a very good place where she has the backing of many activist groups as well as the Democratic establishment.

    There aren’t *too* many Democrats where that is the case.

    Yeah, there are some super-radical people, like communists, who don’t like her, but a lot of those people are the nutters who don’t vote Democratic no matter what.

    God bless those people!

    Newman wouldn’t have the same blessing with the establishment Democrats as Underwood (remember that she pals around with Pelosi and Biden), but for reasons stated above (Casten’s gaffes, Newman’s strength, and Newman’s identity) she still takes priority over Casten.

    Any guesses on who might run for this *new* third district that would be heavily Hispanic?

  14. Lopez is a perspicacious chap.

    Hultgren was a fool, indeed.

    A RINO fool.

    And RINO Speaker Ryan probably lost him votes when he deigned to campaign for Hultgren for an hour in Spring Grove.

    But Hultgren was still cheated out of a win by the digital pirates and stupid, venal county clerks who presided over widespread cheating.

  15. Correcting,

    POLITICO floated Chicago Alderman Gilbert Villegas and state Senator Omar Aquino (Chicago) as two possible Democrat candidates.

    Another Democrat in the new IL-03 is state Senator Karina Villa (West Chicago), who could position herself as the suburbanite educator, and if both Villegas and Aquino run, could consolidate the female vote and possibly win the primary.

  16. In McHenry Co., Tirio is the main problem.

    He doesn’t understand that his own voting machines are being hacked and he’s being played. Maybe he does understand.

    I won’t be voting until this is fixed….it’s pointless.

  17. Tell Casten to remove his rectally inserted dildo.

    Its batteries need replacement.

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