UPDATEDx3: Sean Casten Rant Pays Off as Thursday Night Map Removes Marie Newman from IL-06

Sean Casten

Update 7:19PM CDT:

Version 4 draft congressional map places Sean Casten I’m IL-06 by himself. Marie Newman redrawn into IL-04 in primary with Jesus “Chuy” Garcia.

From the desk of John Lopez: Looks like Newman will be a one-termer if latest version of map is final. No change to McHenry County. Once map approved, final map will be added to the blog in event any more changes tonight.

Update 2:10PM CDT: Per POLITICO‘s Shia Kapos tweet from an hour ago:

“There are two issues at play: Rep. Sean Casten lost his cool with some DuPage County lawmakers about the map not being more fair to him, angering women lawmakers, one lawmaker told us and blogge[r] Rich Miller wrote. And Latinos want assurances that they are fairly represented.

” ‘It’s about making sure Latino districts are as protected as they can be,’ one lawmaker told IL Playbook. Stay tuned, folks. Looks like it’s going to be another long night.”

From the desk of John Lopez: Sean Casten losing his cool. Those of us who live in the 6th Congressional District, and reading his Twitter rants these past nearly three years are not surprised.

Update 10/28/21 11:23AM CDT: Per Crain’s Chicago Business:

Peace is not at hand on the congressional remap, however.

Even before Wednesday dawned, ruling Springfield Democrats already had rolled out two sharply different visions of how to divide the 17 districts Illinois will have for the next decade. And after a day of wrangling, at around 10 p.m. last night they unveiled a third, slightly different version on a legislative website.

At first glance, the new version appears somewhat friendlier toward Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Bill Foster, D-[Naperville], whose district would be shifted farther to the east under the latest revision.  The new 6th District, combining the homes of Democratic U.S. Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman also was altered a bit.

But it’s far from clear this latest version of the map has the votes to pass. According to Springfield insiders, a problem has arisen, concentrated in the Latino caucus.

Details were not available, but multiple sources in Springfield and Washington report the split is severe enough that House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch may well be short of the 71 votes needed to approve the map now.

That in turn raises a real possibility the remap will be kicked over until the Legislature’s January session, when only 60 and not 71 votes will be needed.

Such a development would send national shockwaves, since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been counting on Illinois and a few other blue states to help offset remap losses elsewhere.  It also could put incumbent congressmen in a tough spot, unable to pass nominating petitions until next year, unable to meet their new constituents, and perhaps presenting legal woes.

Taking a page out of predecessor Mike Madigan’s book, Welch has scheduled an earrrrrrrrly, 7 a.m. Democratic caucus to unveil the latest proposal and hopefully get lawmakers, weary after a day of horse-trading, to vote for it. If that doesn’t work, there’s a possibility the Senate will pass the map and leave town, putting the onus squarely on the House.

Greg Hinz “Springfield Memo”, Crain’s Chicago Business 10/28/21, 6:10AM CDT

.

Developing story…

===================

Late Wednesday night, around 9:30PM CDT, the Illinois General Assembly (ILGA) Democrats released the 3rd, and possibly final draft of the congressional remap, with voting by the ILGA expected Thursday.

The House Redistricting Committee on Wednesday released an updated version of the proposed congressional map that accounts for public feedback while improving minority influence quoting House Redistricting Committee Chair Lisa Hernandez (D, Cicero):

“I am extraordinarily proud of the passion and dedication that has been present throughout this redistricting process.

“I want to thank my colleagues on the bipartisan redistricting committee, as well as the members of the public, advocacy groups and grassroots organizations that have helped provide the crucial testimony needed to ensure we have diverse representation in Washington. I am confident these proposed congressional boundaries will maintain our status as a leader in the nation for minority representation.”

McHenry County, on the latest version, is now within four congressional districts, opposed to five in the 10/23 draft released late Saturday afternoon.

Per the Chicagoland map of the Wednesday, 10/27 draft:

ILGA Draft 10/27/21

McHenry County breakdown as follows:

  • IL-09: Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D, Evanston) only Algonquin Township. Grafton Township portion dropped from 10/23/21 draft.
  • IL-10: Congressman Brad Schneider (D, Deerfield) with Richmond, Burton, Hebron townships, plus portions of McHenry Township (northeast portion of city of McHenry east of IL-31, villages of Johnsburg and Ringwood)
  • IL-11: Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) Grafton, Nunda, Coral, Riley, Marengo, Seneca, Dorr, and most of Greenwood, Hartland and McHenry townships.
  • IL-16: Congressmen Darin LaHood (R, Dunlap) and Adam Kinzinger (R, Channahon): Chemung, Dunham, Alden and northwest Hartland townships.

The IL-08 of Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D, Schaumburg) was removed from McHenry County on the newest version of the map.

Here is the statewide map:

ILGA Draft 10/27/21

From the desk of John Lopez: Focusing on the McHenry County impacted districts only, the promised help for Congressman Bill Foster (D, IL-11) appears to be negligible.

On this map:

  • City of Crystal Lake west of IL Highway 31 removed from IL-11 within Algonquin Township and transferred to IL-09, giving all of Algonquin Township to Schakowsky.
  • All of Sugar Grove Township in Kane County was transferred to Lauren Underwood’s IL-14, including the home of 2020 IL-14 Republican nominee Jim Oberweis (Sugar Grove).
  • Portion of eastern Aurora in Kane County transferred from IL-14 to IL-11 to give more Democrat voters to Foster.
  • Big Rock Township in southwest Kane County transferred to IL-14 from IL-11.

Based on Illinois Elections Data analysis of Wednesday’s draft map, the proposed IL-11 is now a Biden +15.3 in 2020 and a Clinton +10.7 in 2016.

But the Pritzker +2.62 in 2018 and Duckworth +3.4 in 2016 still makes the IL-11 more attractive for a certain anti-Trump Republican to seek reelection in the U.S. House next year.

Unless a new version can change the Pritzker and Duckworth numbers in the new IL-11 substantially, Foster may face a competitive general election in the fall of 2022.


Comments

UPDATEDx3: Sean Casten Rant Pays Off as Thursday Night Map Removes Marie Newman from IL-06 — 12 Comments

  1. Foster is a poor excuse for a human. How can a person have a brain the size of wren?

  2. What’s the exact date petition circulation starts?

    I recall it being sometime in January.

    Could you imagine if they waited until January and then some lawsuit ended up striking the maps down, like maybe during or after the petition gathering window? Imagine the chaos…

    I wonder what the timetable for the litigation regarding the state legislative maps is.

    I know there is an ongoing lawsuit.

    Is that going to be resolved by January?

  3. Correcting,

    I believe it’s January 13 for the June 28 primary.

    Conceivably, the IL General Assembly could push back the primary again to buy some time, possibly to late July or early to mid August.

    That would push back petition circulation start date a little.

  4. ** It also could put incumbent congressmen in a tough spot, unable to pass nominating petitions until next year**

    Oh Greg… no.

    Just no.

    You’d think that he would try to at least get basic facts correctly.

  5. Shake,

    I’m guessing it was a late night was Hinz’s excuse.

    If both House and Senate do not pass the new congressional map today, either current draft or future draft, and they have to wait until January to formally approve it, you think the Democrats might nudge the primary date back to late July to early-or-mid August, to buy some time?

  6. Sounds likely either way that petition circulating is going to be going on in February/March/April which are cold months.

    How do third parties fit into this picture?

    Typically they don’t circulate until after the primary and they too have a 90 day window to collect.

    But they might just have fixed dates. idk.

    If it’s attached to the primary I’m not even sure if the current date works, let alone pushing it back.

    Pritzker will likely be getting sued again by the Libertarians and Greens.

    Third parties were successful in their statewide lawsuit in 2020 and local candidates overcame challenges too.

    That’s how you ended up with some off-beat parties on the ballot running for president like Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party and Gloria La Riva of the Party of Socialism and Liberation.

    If I’m not mistaken Kanye West was either just a few signatures short or a few minutes too late to the office.

    His party was called the Birthday Party. Lol

    (I think it’s likely we’ll be in a civil war or martial law sort of scenario by then and there won’t be elections, but let’s just ASSUME nothing WACKY like that is going to happen for the purpose of this post. You know, for entertainment and educational purposes, not based on the real world conditions that point to America collapsing.)

  7. So long as they don’t use the guys that John Reinardt did they should have no trouble getting signatures.

  8. Throwing Newman and Garcia in the same district is going to make the progs livid.

    Those two are probably the most beloved House members by progs in Illinois.

    Progs would much rather see Brad Schneider or Bill Foster or Sean Casten or Mike Quigley go than Marie Newman or Jesus “Chuy” Garcia.

  9. Correcting, I included Newman’s statement in the post-votes article, which does appear to set up a Casten-Newman primary.

  10. Bush or Obama or Trump or Biden, Democratic or Republican, the one constant in US politics is “We cuck for Zion.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *