McHenry County Blog

News reports said that former Attorney General and Republican candidate for governor Jim Ryan wanted the coveted last spot who vastly out-polled my Libertarian Party candidacy but succumbed to serial liar Rod Blagojevich chickened out today.

Again.

As I have shared previously, when I was in grad school at the University of Michigan, I found a paper than analyzed the impact of ballot order on election results.

The researchers looked at paper ballots for a Michigan city near Detroit. In races of six or more, first place was worth an extra 10%. Second and last place on the ballot were worth another 5%.

There are seven people running for the Republican nomination for governor.

Worst place on the ballot was next to last.

That’s where Jim Ryan ended up.

He blinked at 4:18 PM this afternoon.

Andy McKenna filed seven minutes later.

We won’t know who gets the justifiably coveted first place on the ballot until the lottery, but we know that McKenna didn’t blink and file before any other GOP gubernatorial candidate.

Inexplicably, political consultant Dan Proft filed even earlier than Ryan at 3:26.

A pollster for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Schillerstrom called yesterday afternoon.

Schillerstrom is DuPage County Board Chairman.

The pollster wanted to know if I would vote for Schillerstrom for governor.

I told her, “No.”

She didn’t ask why, but, if she had I had an answer.

I would have told her that I was really disturbed that he balanced his DuPage County budget by getting most of his county’s state senators to vote to triple my RTA sales tax.

The bill that eventually passed, after an amendment (allowing collar county board’s to use the quarter of a percent sales tax offer of free road money for collar county boards to be diverted to public safety purposes) was added.

That allowed Schillerstrom to forego an already-on-the ballot countywide referendum to raise sales taxes one-quarter of one percentage point for law enforcement to fill his budget hole. (Winnebago County passed such a referendum in 2002.)

Schillerstrom’s intervention was so egregious that he was taken to the wood shed by Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna at the Decatur state convention last June.

That made Schillerstrom hopping mad.

It stung so much most DuPage County Republicans walked off the convention floor.

Later my wife and I got a letter from Schillerstrom about it.

Schillerstrom let his state senators take the heat.

He got “free money.”

How ironic that one of them, Kirk Dillard is also running for the Republican nomination for governor.

But, the pollster was onto her next question. No time for an explanation on my part.

She asked if I would be more likely to vote for Schillerstrom if I knew I knew he had lowered property taxes seven ten years in 10 years.

I told her, “Yes.”

Would I be more likely to vote for Schillerstrom if I knew he had cut $200 million in wasteful spending?

I told her, “Yes.”

The final question was whether I would be more likely to vote for Schillerstrom if I knew DuPage County had passed “comprehensive ethics reform.”

I told her, “Yes.”

Do you see television and radio ads coming out of this survey?

= = = = =
The photo of DuPage County Board Chairman Robert Schillerstrom comes from the Young Republican Candidates’ Bar-B-Que held in Barrington Saturday, August 11, 2009.

When I heard that U.S. Senator Dick Durbin’s suggestion that the Illinois General Assembly hold a special election to replace President-Elect Barack Obama, I thought it was an interesting idea.

Certainly, very few think Governor Rod “Let’s Make a Deal” Blagojevich should be allowed to be the only one with a say.

Then, watching a couple of hours of news programs, I figured out that the idea was gaining steam.

House Speaker Mike Madigan seems to have signed on, as have Senate Democratic Party leaders.

And Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna expressed his support as well.

Sounds almost like a done deal, except for Governor Rod Blagojevich and his opinion pretty much doesn’t count anymore.

Any veto would be overridden if there is a consensus among legislators.

There are other possibilities, of course. Before the William Lorimer (R-Summer Home in Crystal Lake) scandal, members of the Illinois General Assembly made the appointment. They appointed Stephan A. Douglas over Abraham Lincoln after the legislative elections in 1858, for instance.

But after the Lorimer scandal in the early 1910’s, Congress passed and state legislators ratified a constitutional amendment requiring direct election of U.S. Senators.

The General Assembly might be able to take back that power for interim appointments or allow the governor to nominate, but require State Senate confirmation or enact some other scheme.

If they took back the power themselves, then a present day Lorimer could bribe Democratic Party House members the way Republican Lorimer did in 1909. Or vice versa.

The logical dates for a primary election would be the same date as the township and municipal primary elections on February 24, 2009. Likewise, with a United States Senator’s seat at stake, the April 7th local elections, including the five McHenry County Republican Party primaries, would have a much higher turnout.

= = = = =
The luminary seen above in Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna. Disgraced Republican U.S. Senator William Lorimer is seen in the black and white photo. His Crystal Lake summer home across from the Main Beach is near the bottom of the article.

When I heard that U.S. Senator Dick Durbin’s suggestion that the Illinois General Assembly hold a special election to replace President-Elect Barack Obama, I thought it was an interesting idea.

Certainly, very few think Governor Rod “Let’s Make a Deal” Blagojevich should be allowed to be the only one with a say.

Then, watching a couple of hours of news programs, I figured out that the idea was gaining steam.

House Speaker Mike Madigan seems to have signed on, as have Senate Democratic Party leaders.

And Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna expressed his support as well.

Sounds almost like a done deal, except for Governor Rod Blagojevich and his opinion pretty much doesn’t count anymore.

Any veto would be overridden if there is a consensus among legislators.

There are other possibilities, of course. Before the William Lorimer (R-Summer Home in Crystal Lake) scandal, members of the Illinois General Assembly made the appointment. They appointed Stephan A. Douglas over Abraham Lincoln after the legislative elections in 1858, for instance.

But after the Lorimer scandal in the early 1910’s, Congress passed and state legislators ratified a constitutional amendment requiring direct election of U.S. Senators.

The General Assembly might be able to take back that power for interim appointments or allow the governor to nominate, but require State Senate confirmation or enact some other scheme.

If they took back the power themselves, then a present day Lorimer could bribe Democratic Party House members the way Republican Lorimer did in 1909. Or vice versa.

The logical dates for a primary election would be the same date as the township and municipal primary elections on February 24, 2009. Likewise, with a United States Senator’s seat at stake, the April 7th local elections, including the five McHenry County Republican Party primaries, would have a much higher turnout.

= = = = =
The luminary seen above in Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna. Disgraced Republican U.S. Senator William Lorimer is seen in the black and white photo. His Crystal Lake summer home across from the Main Beach is near the bottom of the article.

Early on in the Protect Marriage Illinois advisory petition campaign the Illinois Republican Party was making supportive noises.

There was even a link on the main page of the state GOP web site.

But, as far as I know, no Republican organization helped gather signatures.

And the petition effort fell short.

Not a lot short, but not enough signatures were gathered where it was thought the petition could withstand a vigorous attack from well-financed organized homosexuals.

Now, it turns out that about the only bright spot on the conservative election horizon is the constitutional amendment banning of same sex marriage in California.

The ballot measure, labeled Proposition 8, is passing 52.3% to 47.7%. There’s over a half million vote spread.

Ironically, many of the same voters who pushed Barack Obama to victory voted to ban same sex marriage.

Exit polls taken of 1,200 voters in 50 Los Angeles precincts by the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University found that “50 percent of Latinos voted for Proposition 8 and 39 opposed it, while 47 percent of African-Americans voted for it and 40 percent against it,” according to the LA Times

So, here’s my question?

Had the state GOP gotten the Protect Marriage advisory referendum on the ballot in Illinois, might someone like Elgin’s State Rep. Ruth Munson have eeked out a victory, instead of losing by an unofficial 322 votes?

Understand that I don’t know how Munson stands on the issue and she would obviously have to been against gay marriage and her opponent Keith Farnham would have had to have been in favor of it for my suggested strategy to have had a chance of working.

However, if they had been on opposite sides of the issue, Elgin could have been ready-made to have replicated how California voters behaved.

In 2000, Elgin had 34% Latinos and almost 7% African Americans. These Elgin minorities are concentrated in Munson’s district. The district also dips into Carpentersville, which has 41% Hispanics, most of whom live on the East side in the Munson district.

“Blacks voted 70 percent in favor of Proposition 8, and slightly more than half the Hispanic voters backed the measure, according to exit polls released by the National Election Pool,” the Washington Times reported.

And, Andrew Pugno of ProtectMarriage.com said, “Inner-city black neighborhoods voted stronger for Prop. 8 than the Republican suburbs. An amazing analysis.”

According to Mark DiCamillo, director of The Field Poll in California,

“The Field Poll, completed one week before the election, had Catholics voting at about their registered voter population size (24% of the electorate) with voting preferences similar to those of the overall electorate, with 44% on the Yes side.

“However the network exit poll shows that they accounted for 30% of the CA electorate and had 64% of them voting Yes. Regular churchgoers showed a similar movement toward the Yes side. The pre-election Field Poll showed 72% of these voters voting Yes, while the exit poll showed that 84% of them voted Yes…

“My take is that polling on issues like same-sex marriage that have a direct bearing on religious doctrine can be affected in a big way in the final weekend by last minute appeals by the clergy and religious organizations.”

Whether Catholic Church priests and black ministers in Munson’s district would have done what their counterparts are said to have done in California is unknowable.

But, if they had, and if Munson had a campaign staff astute enough to capitalize on the issue, maybe she would have been re-elected.

Since neither the State GOP nor House Republicans nor Senate Republicans showed any inclination to help get the signatures to put the referendum on the ballot this year, I somehow doubt Munson would have been able to grab the opportunity.

If Tom Cross or Frank Watson’s successor or Andy McKenna figure out this could issue could help some legislators or even the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2010, the time to be starting a petition campaign is now.

Early on in the Protect Marriage Illinois advisory petition campaign the Illinois Republican Party was making supportive noises.

There was even a link on the main page of the state GOP web site.

But, as far as I know, no Republican organization helped gather signatures.

And the petition effort fell short.

Not a lot short, but not enough signatures were gathered where it was thought the petition could withstand a vigorous attack from well-financed organized homosexuals.

Now, it turns out that about the only bright spot on the conservative election horizon is the constitutional amendment banning of same sex marriage in California.

The ballot measure, labeled Proposition 8, is passing 52.3% to 47.7%. There’s over a half million vote spread.

Ironically, many of the same voters who pushed Barack Obama to victory voted to ban same sex marriage.

Exit polls taken of 1,200 voters in 50 Los Angeles precincts by the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University found that “50 percent of Latinos voted for Proposition 8 and 39 opposed it, while 47 percent of African-Americans voted for it and 40 percent against it,” according to the LA Times

So, here’s my question?

Had the state GOP gotten the Protect Marriage advisory referendum on the ballot in Illinois, might someone like Elgin’s State Rep. Ruth Munson have eeked out a victory, instead of losing by an unofficial 322 votes?

Understand that I don’t know how Munson stands on the issue and she would obviously have to been against gay marriage and her opponent Keith Farnham would have had to have been in favor of it for my suggested strategy to have had a chance of working.

However, if they had been on opposite sides of the issue, Elgin could have been ready-made to have replicated how California voters behaved.

In 2000, Elgin had 34% Latinos and almost 7% African Americans. These Elgin minorities are concentrated in Munson’s district. The district also dips into Carpentersville, which has 41% Hispanics, most of whom live on the East side in the Munson district.

“Blacks voted 70 percent in favor of Proposition 8, and slightly more than half the Hispanic voters backed the measure, according to exit polls released by the National Election Pool,” the Washington Times reported.

And, Andrew Pugno of ProtectMarriage.com said, “Inner-city black neighborhoods voted stronger for Prop. 8 than the Republican suburbs. An amazing analysis.”

According to Mark DiCamillo, director of The Field Poll in California,

“The Field Poll, completed one week before the election, had Catholics voting at about their registered voter population size (24% of the electorate) with voting preferences similar to those of the overall electorate, with 44% on the Yes side.

“However the network exit poll shows that they accounted for 30% of the CA electorate and had 64% of them voting Yes. Regular churchgoers showed a similar movement toward the Yes side. The pre-election Field Poll showed 72% of these voters voting Yes, while the exit poll showed that 84% of them voted Yes…

“My take is that polling on issues like same-sex marriage that have a direct bearing on religious doctrine can be affected in a big way in the final weekend by last minute appeals by the clergy and religious organizations.”

Whether Catholic Church priests and black ministers in Munson’s district would have done what their counterparts are said to have done in California is unknowable.

But, if they had, and if Munson had a campaign staff astute enough to capitalize on the issue, maybe she would have been re-elected.

Since neither the State GOP nor House Republicans nor Senate Republicans showed any inclination to help get the signatures to put the referendum on the ballot this year, I somehow doubt Munson would have been able to grab the opportunity.

If Tom Cross or Frank Watson’s successor or Andy McKenna figure out this could issue could help some legislators or even the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2010, the time to be starting a petition campaign is now.

The DuPage County Board Chairman sent me and my wife a letter complaining that Illinois Republican party Chairman Andy McKenna had broken Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment:

As McHenry County Blog explained in this article,

,
McKenna criticized Schillerstrom for successfully fighting for higher taxes on the entire Chicago metropolitan area.

I figure Schillerstrom’s actions will cost us McHenry County taxpayers $18 million a year…assuming there is never any inflation.

Schillerstrom seems to have forgotten that old adage:

Schillerstrom claims to “have spent my entire career adhering to the GOP principles of smaller government, disciplined spending and fiscal conservatism.”

He made not mention of his and DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett’s and three of his county’s five state senators’ roles in TRIPLING the RTA sales tax for the five collar counties.

If that is what a conservative does, please save me from DuPage County conservatives.

It reminds me so much of what DuPage County politicians did in the 1980’s. About 90% of all the bonds issued in DuPage County were not approved by its voters.

Think airport authority, water commission and park districts for starters.

All controlled by Republicans.

The situation got so bad that gubernatorial candidate Jim Edgar proposed the property tax cap. I’ve been told by sources I trust that the anger of DuPage County homeowners inspired the proposal.

So, spare me the “I’ve been such a great county board chairman” pitch.

If you were such a great county board chairman, you would not have twisted three of your state senators’ arms enough to sell us in McHenry and Kane and Lake and Will Counties down the river in order to avoid cutting DuPage County spending in the sheriff’s and/or state’s attorney’s office.

Or you would have raised only the taxes in DuPage County, which you could have done by referendum (it was on the ballot, remember?), if you really thought your constituents would think that was the right and conservative thing to do.

And, your delegation would not have acted like children and walked out of the Republican Party Convention in Decatur.

The DuPage County Board Chairman sent me and my wife a letter complaining that Illinois Republican party Chairman Andy McKenna had broken Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment:

As McHenry County Blog explained in this article,

,
McKenna criticized Schillerstrom for successfully fighting for higher taxes on the entire Chicago metropolitan area.

I figure Schillerstrom’s actions will cost us McHenry County taxpayers $18 million a year…assuming there is never any inflation.

Schillerstrom seems to have forgotten that old adage:

Schillerstrom claims to “have spent my entire career adhering to the GOP principles of smaller government, disciplined spending and fiscal conservatism.”

He made not mention of his and DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett’s and three of his county’s five state senators’ roles in TRIPLING the RTA sales tax for the five collar counties.

If that is what a conservative does, please save me from DuPage County conservatives.

It reminds me so much of what DuPage County politicians did in the 1980’s. About 90% of all the bonds issued in DuPage County were not approved by its voters.

Think airport authority, water commission and park districts for starters.

All controlled by Republicans.

The situation got so bad that gubernatorial candidate Jim Edgar proposed the property tax cap. I’ve been told by sources I trust that the anger of DuPage County homeowners inspired the proposal.

So, spare me the “I’ve been such a great county board chairman” pitch.

If you were such a great county board chairman, you would not have twisted three of your state senators’ arms enough to sell us in McHenry and Kane and Lake and Will Counties down the river in order to avoid cutting DuPage County spending in the sheriff’s and/or state’s attorney’s office.

Or you would have raised only the taxes in DuPage County, which you could have done by referendum (it was on the ballot, remember?), if you really thought your constituents would think that was the right and conservative thing to do.

And, your delegation would not have acted like children and walked out of the Republican Party Convention in Decatur.

A press release has been received from Family PAC commenting in on Decatur’s Republican Party Convention. I thought it might be of interest to you.

Paul Caprio, Executive Director of Family-PAC, today commended State GOP Chairman, Andrew McKenna Jr., for comments that he made in addressing the Illinois GOP convention held in Decatur this past weekend.

Said Caprio,

“Andy McKenna sent an important message in criticizing former Governor Jim Thompson for promoting a pardon for convicted Ex-Governor George Ryan. McKenna also spoke out against the fact that both the County Chairman and the County Board Chairman in Dupage County had both supported and lobbyed for an increase in the sales tax in that County to bail out the Chicago Transit Authority.

“I thank Chairman McKenna for putting the Republican party on record and standing against un-needed tax increases that are unfairly applied to suburban tax payers. This is an indication of real political courage on his part and we applaud it. Only by standing up for his tried and true conservative principles is the Republican Party going to make progress in Illinois in the future.”

The annual Family PAC cruise will be held on July 28th this summer. It is a truly enjoyable event, although the clouds were a bit threatening last summer. They didn’t reach us in Lake Michigan, however.

A footnote to the convention:

Jim Thompson was named a delegate to the Republican National Convention.

A press release has been received from Family PAC commenting in on Decatur’s Republican Party Convention. I thought it might be of interest to you.

Paul Caprio, Executive Director of Family-PAC, today commended State GOP Chairman, Andrew McKenna Jr., for comments that he made in addressing the Illinois GOP convention held in Decatur this past weekend.

Said Caprio,

“Andy McKenna sent an important message in criticizing former Governor Jim Thompson for promoting a pardon for convicted Ex-Governor George Ryan. McKenna also spoke out against the fact that both the County Chairman and the County Board Chairman in Dupage County had both supported and lobbyed for an increase in the sales tax in that County to bail out the Chicago Transit Authority.

“I thank Chairman McKenna for putting the Republican party on record and standing against un-needed tax increases that are unfairly applied to suburban tax payers. This is an indication of real political courage on his part and we applaud it. Only by standing up for his tried and true conservative principles is the Republican Party going to make progress in Illinois in the future.”

The annual Family PAC cruise will be held on July 28th this summer. It is a truly enjoyable event, although the clouds were a bit threatening last summer. They didn’t reach us in Lake Michigan, however.

A footnote to the convention:

Jim Thompson was named a delegate to the Republican National Convention.