If you looked at the front page of the Chicago Tribune Sunday, you saw five candidates on top of the page.

They are ones that the Tribune’s poll found leading in both the Democratic and Republican Party primaries.

It was Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes for the Democrats. In that race, the Tribune endorsed no one.

In the GOP contest, the heads of Andy McKenna, Jim Ryan and Kirk Dillard appear. The Tribune has endorsed McKenna.

Maybe the supporters of a GOP candidate not in the top three (and who found less than 10% support in the Tribune poll) can surpass the three front-runners.

But, I don’t think it will happen.

If my analysis is correct, people who want to play a role in the decision-making process regarding who the Republicans put up in November have to select among McKenna, Ryan and Dillard.

Having run against Ryan (and Rod Blagojevich) as the Libertarian Party candidate for governor in 2002, I have seen him cozy up to Blagojevich to make sure I was not allowed to be any of the debates.

(If you are interested in the details, here they are.  The Illinois League of Women Voters had sponsored debates for each statewide race for decades.  in 2002, the League said everyone would be include who received at least 5% in an independent poll.  The Daily Southtown, a newspaper, showed me slightly above 5% prior to the League’s deadline.  Ryan and Blagojevich decided not to participate in that debate.  For that reason, I know that Ryan is capable of cutting deals with Democrats when it is in his personal self-interest.)

Then, there is Stuart Levin, Ryan’s law school study partner, long-time supporter and largest lifetime contributor.  To say that that relationship is a problem strikes me as something of an understatement.

It’s not that I think Jim Ryan is dishonest.  It’s not that I think he knew his friend was a crook.

It’s that I know how large contributors often get rewarded.

If Levine had asked Governor Jim Ryan to appoint him to the Illinois Health Facilities Planning Board, I think Ryan would have appointed him.  (Levine was involved in the licensing scandal involving the Mercy Health System hospital application in Crystal Lake.)

If Levine had asked Governor Jim Ryan to appoint him to the Downstate Teachers’ Retirement System board, I think Ryan would have appointed him.

After all, Levine contributed over $800,000 over Ryan’s career and he trusted Levine.

Therein is the problem.  Levine would have been right where he was when he committed felonious acts during the Blagojevich administration.

So, here’s the question I ask of Jim Ryan supporters:

If Jim Ryan had been elected in 2002, how much less corrupt would his administration have been than Rod Blagojevich’s?

Certainly somewhat less corrupt.  As I said before, no one thinks Jim Ryan is a dishonest man.

But his level of discernment about the motives of this man he had known all of his adult live was subpar, to put it as mildly as possible.

And, that doesn’t get into substantive issues like gun control.  Ryan would never win the support of fans of the movie “Red Dawn.”  I know.  He wouldn’t appear on the DeKalb radio station in a forum about gun control when he learned I was in the studio.

That leaves two candidates:

• Kirk Dillard
• Andy McKenna

I can enthusiastically support whichever one wins the primary.

However, Dillard has one vote that is just horrible, in my opinion.

It is his vote to triple suburban collar county RTA sales taxes.

To solve DuPage County budget problem, DuPage County Board President Bob Schillerstrom and State’s Attorney Joe Birkett successfully prevailed upon Dillard and two other DuPage County state senators to vote for what National Taxpayers United of Illinois’ Jim Tobin calls the “CTA bailout.”

Kirk Dillard

It was that, but it was also a bailout of DuPage County because, contrary to the first suburban “bribe” plan–allowing the collar county boards to spend one-quarter of one percent of the three-quarters of one percentage point increase on roads–after the DuPage County officials got involved, it could be spent on transportation or law enforcement. DuPage County had a referendum on the ballot at the time to raise the sales tax of law enforcement purposes, but, hey, if you can get your state senators to take the heat, why bother the voters.

Not only did Dillard’s vote raise our taxes, it rendered asunder the suburban bipartisan coalition on the Regional Transportation Authority put together in 1974. I can only remember a couple suburban legislators who voted for RTA who got re-elected. (Both the Republican Senate and House bill sponsors were defeated.) I guess I take that a bit personally.

Other than that, I find his and McKenna’s positions fairly similar, except that Dillard has not taken a no tax increase pledge and McKenna has. (I have to admit that having the Illinois Education Association, surely an income tax hike organization, endorse Dillard raises my eyebrows.)

Andy McKenna

One more thing about McKenna.  At the GOP convention in Decatur, he heatedly criticized DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, who just withdrew his name from consideration as a candidate for governor (but who will still be on the ballot) about his lobbying DuPage County state senators to triple the RTA sales tax.

Only State Senators Carol Pankau (now a candidate for DuPage County Board President) and Randy Hultgren (now running for Congress in Kane County and more) voted against the 300% increase in the RTA sales tax.

How hot was the criticism?

Most of the DuPage County delegation walked off the convention floor.

In addition, taking on Thompson’s continuing show of support of incarcerated former Republican Governor George Ryan, McKenna said,

“It disappoints me with a former governor lobbies the president to pardon a former governor.”

So, which of the top three are you leaning toward?

Kirk Dillard

Andy McKenna

As I suggested after I got Mary Pat’s call on behalf of Andy McKenna earlier today, the race for the Republican nomination for governor has narrowed down to three candidates:

• Andy McKenna – 19%
• Jim Ryan – 18%
• Kirk Dillard – 14%

The Tribune’s Eric Zorn is reporting the results seen above.

17% reported still being undecided.

Among those with less than 10%, here are the results:

• Bill Brady – 9%
• Adam Andrzejewski – 7%
• Dan Proft – 6%

Bob Schillerstrom had 2%, but he dropped out in favor of Jim Ryan today.

In the Democratic Party primary, Zorn reports

• Pat Quinn – 44%
• Dan Hynes – 40%

As Zorn puts it,

“Game on.”

• Pat Quinn: $3.15 million in receipts, $2.36 million in expenditures and $1.5 million in available funds at the close of the period
• Dan Hynes: $2.32 million, $2.75 million, $3.1 million
• Andy McKenna: $2.23 million, $2.17 million, $63,500
• Kirk Dillard: $1.4 million, $1 million, $369,000
• Adam Andrzejewski, Republican: $752,000, $775,00, $334,000
• Bob Schillerstrom, Republican: $661,000, $674,000, $120,000
• Bill Brady, Republican: $443,000, $662,000, $192,000
• Jim Ryan: $313,000, $123,000, $190,000
• Dan Proft: $169,000, $135,000, $51,300
• Rich Whitney, Green: $6,120, $6,260, $2,570

He has an analysis in his article.

The Frankie Valli actor sang,

“Working My Way Back to You, Babe.”

As I read Republican gubernatorial candidate Andy McKenna’s press release announcing he had signed the American for Tax Reform’s “Taxpayer Protection Pledge,” I realized this might be a step toward the Illinois GOP’s returning to the taxpayer’s side in Illinois.

The song was written after Valli had played around on the road and his wife had left him. Goodness knows local govenment Republicans have played around with raising taxes—think of

• Crystal Lake Mayor Aaron Shepley’s 75% city sales tax hike and
  the Republican state senators in DuPage County (including Kirk Dillard, now running against McKenna for the nomination) and
• DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom’s inducing those GOP senators to vote for the bill that tripled the RTA sales tax in the collar counties.

McKenna even lashed out at Schillerstrom and former Governor James R. Thompson for supporting the huge RTA sales tax hike at the Republican State Convention in 2008, leading to a walk out of most of the DuPage County delegation, but cheers from other suburbanites like me.

But, Republican legislative leaders Tom Cross and Christine Rodogno have not become “responsible Republicans” and led the charge to bail out the spend and borrow and tax Democrats who have controlled Springfield since Rod Blagojevich beat Jim Ryan (and me) in 2002.

Maybe they have figured out what I have.

When Blagojevich took office in 2003, he proclaimed there was a $5 billion deficit. I always thought that was a two-year figure that could have been worked off, the way Jim Edgar got out of the hole that Jim Thompson left him.

Every year, including 2003, the Springfield (read “Chicago”) Democrats added a billion dollars to the budget.

Hey, there was no problem.

Come last year and Pat Quinn takes over. He proclaims an $11-12 billion debt.

Let’s do some simple math.

2009 minus 2003 is 6.

Six times $1 billion is $6 billion.

Five billion dollars, plus $6 billion is $11 billion.
Presto Chango!

We know where the Democrats deficit came from.

As Pogo, undoubtedly a Democrat, would say,

“We have met the enemy and it is us.”

Below is McKenna’s press release:

McKenna Signs Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge; Challenges Opponents to do the Same

Andy McKenna announced today that he signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge, vowing as Governor to “oppose and veto any and all efforts to increase taxes.”“I am pleased to sign the Taxpayer Protection Pledge because it is wrong to ask the taxpayers of Illinois to do more when their government has done so little,” said McKenna. “I challenge my opponents to sign this pledge and make a commitment to the hardworking men and women of this state that they will not raise taxes.”

While some of his opponents continue to flip-flop on whether they will raise taxes, McKenna’s opposition to tax hikes has been clear for years including his collaboration with Republican Leaders Tom Cross and Christine Radogno to defeat Governor Quinn’s jobs-killing income tax hike.

Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) opposes all tax increases as a matter of principle.  It was founded in 1985 by Grover Norquist at the request of President Ronald Reagan.  Since ATR first sponsored the Pledge in 1986, hundreds of U.S. Representatives, more than fifty U.S. Senators and every successful Republican Presidential candidate have all signed the Pledge.

News reports said that former Attorney General and Republican candidate for governor Jim Ryan wanted the coveted last spot who vastly out-polled my Libertarian Party candidacy but succumbed to serial liar Rod Blagojevich chickened out today.

Again.

As I have shared previously, when I was in grad school at the University of Michigan, I found a paper than analyzed the impact of ballot order on election results.

The researchers looked at paper ballots for a Michigan city near Detroit. In races of six or more, first place was worth an extra 10%. Second and last place on the ballot were worth another 5%.

There are seven people running for the Republican nomination for governor.

Worst place on the ballot was next to last.

That’s where Jim Ryan ended up.

He blinked at 4:18 PM this afternoon.

Andy McKenna filed seven minutes later.

We won’t know who gets the justifiably coveted first place on the ballot until the lottery, but we know that McKenna didn’t blink and file before any other GOP gubernatorial candidate.

Inexplicably, political consultant Dan Proft filed even earlier than Ryan at 3:26.

Schillerstrom is DuPage County Board Chairman.

The pollster wanted to know if I would vote for Schillerstrom for governor.

I told her, “No.”

She didn’t ask why, but, if she had I had an answer.

I would have told her that I was really disturbed that he balanced his DuPage County budget by getting most of his county’s state senators to vote to triple my RTA sales tax.

The bill that eventually passed, after an amendment (allowing collar county board’s to use the quarter of a percent sales tax offer of free road money for collar county boards to be diverted to public safety purposes) was added.

That allowed Schillerstrom to forego an already-on-the ballot countywide referendum to raise sales taxes one-quarter of one percentage point for law enforcement to fill his budget hole. (Winnebago County passed such a referendum in 2002.)

Schillerstrom’s intervention was so egregious that he was taken to the wood shed by Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna at the Decatur state convention last June.

That made Schillerstrom hopping mad.

It stung so much most DuPage County Republicans walked off the convention floor.

Later my wife and I got a letter from Schillerstrom about it.

Schillerstrom let his state senators take the heat.

He got “free money.”

How ironic that one of them, Kirk Dillard is also running for the Republican nomination for governor.

But, the pollster was onto her next question. No time for an explanation on my part.

She asked if I would be more likely to vote for Schillerstrom if I knew I knew he had lowered property taxes seven ten years in 10 years.

I told her, “Yes.”

Would I be more likely to vote for Schillerstrom if I knew he had cut $200 million in wasteful spending?

I told her, “Yes.”

The final question was whether I would be more likely to vote for Schillerstrom if I knew DuPage County had passed “comprehensive ethics reform.”

I told her, “Yes.”

Do you see television and radio ads coming out of this survey?

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The photo of DuPage County Board Chairman Robert Schillerstrom comes from the Young Republican Candidates’ Bar-B-Que held in Barrington Saturday, August 11, 2009.

The annual estimated loss of income is $300,000.

DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, who is running for governor, made the ban a central part of his campaign, as you can see from the front page of his web site that I have captured.

Adam Andrzejewski, candidate for the Republican nomination for governor. Andrzejewski prospered in the private sector. His web site touts “Adam for Illinois.”

Bob Schillerstrom, candidate for the Republican nomination for governor. His web site touts “Bob for Illinois.” It emphasizes his opposition to the video poker (read “slot machine”) law supported by oh-so-many Republican legislators, but not their constituents. It does not emphasize his role in breaking suburban unity with regard to the Regional Transportation Authority resulting in tripling the RTA sales tax.

Bill Brady, candidate for the Republican nomination for governor. His web site uses his last name.

Robert Zadek is running for the Republican nomination for the United States Senate. Here is the Rockford resident’s web site.

Paul Mitchell is a candidate for the Republican nomination for state representative who is running against incumbent 62nd District Sandy Cole in Lake County. His web site is headlined, “Pro Life, Pro Liberty, Pro Happiness.”

It was a hot day, as can been seen by looking at the candidates.

The band Clone Radio is playing above. Also appearing was Bros & Joes’ band.

You can see the banners for the Lake and McHenry County Young Republicans in this shot of the stage.

That was enough to make him noticed by the Chicago Sun-Times in Springfield correspondent Dave McKenney’s story on what statewide candidates raised how much.

Franks’ photo and that of DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom were featured in the article above which State Comptroller Dan Hynes snagged the headlinefor having $3.5 million in the bank.

Franks has told the Northwest Herald that he’s thinking about running for governor.

One thing is for sure, if the campaign “reform” bill is signed by Governor Pat Quinn, this will be the last election cycle that candidates with rich relatives like Franks will be able to tap them for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The new limit is $5,000 per person, if I read the legislation correctly.

Here’s my contact’s description of the phone call:

She said she was located in Asia and representing Western Wats. I tried to jot down her questions, not word for word, for you;

1. Will you vote in the Republican primary for IL governor?

2. Is IL heading in the wrong or right direction?

3. Approve or disapprove of the job state legislature is doing?

4. Who would you likely vote for governor? This was her list to choose from;

• Joe Birkett
• health care
• Kirk Dillard
• Bill Brady
• Doug Whitley
• Dan Proft
• Tom Cross
• Bob Schillerstrom
• Ron Gidwitz

5. What issue(s) concern you or you think legislature should focus? She
quickly read off this list;

• abortion
• lowering taxes
• reform and ethics
• improving education
• reducing crime
• family values
• wasteful state spending
• Second Amendment rights
• protecting the environment
• creating jobs/improve state economy

6. Do you subscribe to cable or satellite TV?

7. Who is your provider?

8. How often do you watch:
MSNBC; daily, few times a week, once a month, etc.,
Fox News; daily, few times a week, once a month, etc.,
CNBC; daily, few times a week, once a month, etc.

9. Do you listen to the radio?
How often do you listen to Hannity?
Limbaugh?

10. What year were you born?

11. Are you Evangelical or born-again Christian?

12. Support or oppose abortion?

You can pretty well guess that the person paying for the survey research is listed among the names read.

If anyone else gets a political polling call, please make notes and let me share them with McHenry County Blog readers.

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Seen on top are Joe Birkett on the left and Kirk Dillard to his left. Next comes Bill Brady. Under him is a photo of Ron Gidwitz. Dan Proft is to the left. Below him is Tom Cross.