McHenry County Blog

A photo of the New York Times interactive congressional district map.

Here’s a map with a link to all 435 congressional districts. Click on a district and you will see what odds statistician Nate Silver gives each candidate for victory.

Let’s look at those in Northern and Central Illinois.

McHenry County first.

Don Manzullo is giving a 100% chance of winning reelection over George Gaulrapp. The predicted result is 65% to 33%.

In the 8^th congressional district, incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean is given a 96.6% of beating Republican Joe Walsh and Green Bill Scheurer. Silver thinks the vote will be 55% to 42%. Presumably, he thinks Scheurer will get 3%.

In the 14^th District, which starts at the McHenry-Kane County line and goes south, Silver gives Randy Hultgren a 62.6% chance of unseating incumbent Democrat Bill Foster. The final percentages will be 50-48, according to his computer model.

In the North Shore district Mark Kirk is vacating to run for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Dan Seals has a 52.7% chance of winning. The vote total is projected to be 49% to 49%.

In the 17^th District, south of Don Manzullo’s, one of the most gerrymandered in Illinois, Silver thinks incumbent Democrat Phil Hare has a 73,4% chance of victory. The vote total will be 52% for Hare to 43% for Bobby Schilling, his projections goes.

Republican challenger Adam Kinzinger is estimated to have an 87.5% chance of capturing the 11^th District from incumbent Debbie Halvorson. The tally will be 53% to 45%, Silver projects.

Thanks to Capitol Fax Blog for the link to Public Opinion Strategies memo describing its poll findings in the 11th district race between Democrat incumbent Debbie Halvorson and challenger Adam Kinzinger.

51%-40% for the Republican with the ratio getting better as the less interested voters are pealed off.

Rich Miller, who writes Capitol Fax Blog, cautions that the same pollster was way off in the November election two years ago.

This is the second incumbent Democrat to come out on the short end of an internal poll run by a Republican opponent.

But this is the second incumbent whose opponent’s pollster finds in trouble.

The first was Phil Hare, who represents northwestern Illinois’ 17th District south of 16th District Congressman Don Manzullo. Hare’s opponent is Bobby Schilling.

The question locally is whether 14th District incumbent Bill Foster and 8th District Congresswoman Melissa Bean are in danger as well.

Melissa Bean was enthusiastically greeting potential voters at the entrance of the McHenry County Fair Friday night.

Do challengers Randy Hultgren and Joe Walsh have a chance?

In the 11th district, Glen Bolger writes,

“…26% saying things in the country are going in the right direction and 68% believing the country has gotten off on the wrong track.”

A generic Republican would have won the district 48%-32%, with 20% undecided, in early August.

With regard to Halvorson’s image, the pollster reports her favorables are now at 35% favorable, lower than her 39% unfavorable rating.

This might be significant in Bean’s race, since it shows a woman, with her built-in advantage of about five percentage points, can lose favor, if there is enough negative light shined on her.

In Halvorson’s case, I believe the negative publicity has come from her misplaced criticism of Republican Adam Kinzinger’s war record.

The challenger got reassigned after the primary election, but his web site was not updated.

“Big deal!” I think the constituency concluded while also deciding that Halvorson’s criticism was far too harsh.

No similar negative publicity has resulted for Bean.

And, Bean has had the advantage of hundreds of thousands of dollars of favorably television ads over three elections. Halvorson is in her first term, having replaced Republican Jerry Weller in the Illinois Barack Obama landslide.

There’s something call a “new person” rating. Apparently, it refers to the number of people who think a new person would be best for the office.

Halvorson now has a 33% level of support against 55% wanting a new person.

Methodology for the survey?

400 likely voters having a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Joe Walsh

Melissa Bean

National Public Radio reports on a 1,200 person poll taken in 70 U.S. House of Representative districts considered swing districts.

Three from Illinois—Bill Foster’s, Debbie Halvorsen’s and Melissa Bean’s—were included.

The results nationwide showed voters selecting Republicans over Democrats 49% to 41%.

The relevant part of the story for McHenry County residents follows:

“…the newest poll may also show that Bean is vulnerable.”

Republican Joe Walsh and Green Bill Scheurer are challenging Bean in the 8th District race.

Yesterday, I held forth on how the Chicago Tribune’s bad, bad advice for more Republicans to vote for the RTA sales tax bill (Senate Bill 656) would further decimate suburban Republicans in the legislature.

Today, I turn to the root cause of the problem:

DuPage County’s rapacious county officials.

You know, the ones who never have enough money and–in the worst way–do not want to have to ask their constituents for permission to raise their taxes.

It’s as if this black cloud sweeping over Chicago has reversed course and headed due West.

The cloud of high taxes, heavier tax burdens.

In the State Senate, three DuPage County Republicans took a dive for DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom and voted for the CTA/RTA bailout:

• Dan Cronin
• Kirk Dillard and
• John Millner

This fall, how will any of these suburban Republicans explain why railroad commuter fares soared, even though RTA sales taxes only increased 25% in Cook County,while tripling in DuPage County? (And, yes, I know the county folks are going to take half of the increase.)

Maybe the senators are not up for election.

In an article by Meg Dedolph, the Naperville Sun reports the blowback that Schillerstrom is getting from

• State Rep. Joe Dunn of Naperville,
• State Sen. Randy Hultgren of Wheaton and
• State Rep. Jim Meyer of Bolingbrook

And, Schillerstrom should be taking grief.

“All” he has to do is pass a February 5th referendum to impose a quarter cent county sales tax and the legislation would not be needed.

Winnebago County did it by referendum.

Why can’t DuPage, if it is really needed and the “will of people?”

But local officials like Schillerstrom, of course, simply don’t trust the will of his people?

Local officials always want state legislators to take the heat for raising local taxes.

My belief is that those who spend tax dollars should take the responsibility for raising them…or at least proposing raising them. If they can convince a majority of the electorate to approve a referendum, they should feel free to pass the blame.

Undoubtedly there will be consequences.

The obvious one will be to give a boost to Democrats in DuPage County.

Let me tell you a consequence that may be unintended, but one which could affect national politics.

After misreading the Senate roll call on SB 656, I wrote an article about how State Senator Debbie Halvorson’s “Yes” vote could hurt her in her attempt to win Jerry Weller’s congressional seat. I have apologized elsewhere for my mistake, but I do so again.

Nevertheless, the three DuPage County Republican state senators who cast “Yes” votes allowed Halvorson to skate. She is recorded as not voting.

Now, if her vote had been required and cast, the chain of logic I laid out in my article showing how Republicans could benefit would be in play.

If Halvorson wins the seat for the Democrats, fingers ought to be pointed at Schillerstrom and these three state senators for helping allow it to happen.

Of course, she still might be required to vote “Yes,” if the DuPage County senators change their minds and vote “No” on the amendatory veto. One is the GOP county chairman and another is immediate past chairman. Too bad they haven’t shown their concern for the GOP’s future in their RTA votes.

But, they have another chance to help undo the damage they have inflicted on the Republican Party’s anti-tax brand.

Schillerstrom is following in the footsteps of DuPage County Republicans in the 1980’s. Then the biggest legislative goal of DuPage County officials was to get their legislators to raise local taxes without a referendum.

They succeeded. Think DuPage County Airport’s and Water Commission’s, not to mention the school and park districts’ borrowing without asking voters. I once had a study done by the Legislative Research Council that found about 90% of the outstanding debt in DuPage County resulted from non-referendum bonds.

No wonder there was a revolt.

DuPage County successful hiking of taxes without referendums led to Governor Jim Edgar’s property tax cap proposal.

I guess we outside of DuPage County should thank its taxpayers for allowing us to have the protection that they did not have when they needed it.

Yesterday, I held forth on how the Chicago Tribune’s bad, bad advice for more Republicans to vote for the RTA sales tax bill (Senate Bill 656) would further decimate suburban Republicans in the legislature.

Today, I turn to the root cause of the problem:

DuPage County’s rapacious county officials.

You know, the ones who never have enough money and–in the worst way–do not want to have to ask their constituents for permission to raise their taxes.

It’s as if this black cloud sweeping over Chicago has reversed course and headed due West.

The cloud of high taxes, heavier tax burdens.

In the State Senate, three DuPage County Republicans took a dive for DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom and voted for the CTA/RTA bailout:

• Dan Cronin
• Kirk Dillard and
• John Millner

This fall, how will any of these suburban Republicans explain why railroad commuter fares soared, even though RTA sales taxes only increased 25% in Cook County,while tripling in DuPage County? (And, yes, I know the county folks are going to take half of the increase.)

Maybe the senators are not up for election.

In an article by Meg Dedolph, the Naperville Sun reports the blowback that Schillerstrom is getting from

• State Rep. Joe Dunn of Naperville,
• State Sen. Randy Hultgren of Wheaton and
• State Rep. Jim Meyer of Bolingbrook

And, Schillerstrom should be taking grief.

“All” he has to do is pass a February 5th referendum to impose a quarter cent county sales tax and the legislation would not be needed.

Winnebago County did it by referendum.

Why can’t DuPage, if it is really needed and the “will of people?”

But local officials like Schillerstrom, of course, simply don’t trust the will of his people?

Local officials always want state legislators to take the heat for raising local taxes.

My belief is that those who spend tax dollars should take the responsibility for raising them…or at least proposing raising them. If they can convince a majority of the electorate to approve a referendum, they should feel free to pass the blame.

Undoubtedly there will be consequences.

The obvious one will be to give a boost to Democrats in DuPage County.

Let me tell you a consequence that may be unintended, but one which could affect national politics.

After misreading the Senate roll call on SB 656, I wrote an article about how State Senator Debbie Halvorson’s “Yes” vote could hurt her in her attempt to win Jerry Weller’s congressional seat. I have apologized elsewhere for my mistake, but I do so again.

Nevertheless, the three DuPage County Republican state senators who cast “Yes” votes allowed Halvorson to skate. She is recorded as not voting.

Now, if her vote had been required and cast, the chain of logic I laid out in my article showing how Republicans could benefit would be in play.

If Halvorson wins the seat for the Democrats, fingers ought to be pointed at Schillerstrom and these three state senators for helping allow it to happen.

Of course, she still might be required to vote “Yes,” if the DuPage County senators change their minds and vote “No” on the amendatory veto. One is the GOP county chairman and another is immediate past chairman. Too bad they haven’t shown their concern for the GOP’s future in their RTA votes.

But, they have another chance to help undo the damage they have inflicted on the Republican Party’s anti-tax brand.

Schillerstrom is following in the footsteps of DuPage County Republicans in the 1980’s. Then the biggest legislative goal of DuPage County officials was to get their legislators to raise local taxes without a referendum.

They succeeded. Think DuPage County Airport’s and Water Commission’s, not to mention the school and park districts’ borrowing without asking voters. I once had a study done by the Legislative Research Council that found about 90% of the outstanding debt in DuPage County resulted from non-referendum bonds.

No wonder there was a revolt.

DuPage County successful hiking of taxes without referendums led to Governor Jim Edgar’s property tax cap proposal.

I guess we outside of DuPage County should thank its taxpayers for allowing us to have the protection that they did not have when they needed it.