A Comparison of McHenry County Board Totals Before and After Adding in Early & Absentee Votes
There were differences between the totals on which I based the earlier articles I wrote last night and the ones that now appear on the McVote election results web site.
Added in at the end of the counting were 31,091 early and absentee votes.
Total ballots cast at this point are 134,323, a 66.10% showing. (There was a 77.2% turnout four years ago.)
So that means a bit over 23% of those participating in the election cast early ballots.
On the left hand side below are the tallies before adding in the early and absentee votes. You can click to enlarge any image. (If you do any analysis, I’d appreciate seeing it.)
District 1 without early & absentee votes.
Most of the votes are included here. Just a few absentee ballots may be show up before the canvass.
Comparing the ballots cast in person on the left with a combination of those cast at the polling place, plus absentee votes and early votes shows some differences, but the early and absentee votes seem in line with the final results.
It certainly should tell future candidates to campaign early enough to catch those who don’t vote on election day.
District 2 results without early and absentee voting.
District 2 County Board results with only late arriving absentee ballots left out.
I’m reminded of the differences between election day votes and those cast earlier during the 2012 McHenry County Sheriff’s primary.
District 3 results without early and absentee votes.
District 3 County Board results with just late arriving absentee votes missing.
I supported Zane Seipler over incumbent Sheriff Keith Nygren.
I worked the precinct the last weekend.
Seipler carried my Algonquin Township Precinct 7 by about 2-1 among those who voted in person.
After the early and absentee ballots were folded in Seipler was still ahead, but only marginally.
That shows the value that Nygren’s massive name identification had on the electorate.
In District 2 both County Board Chairman Ken Koehler and the man trying to knock him off, Democrat Jim Roden, didn’t do a lot of early campaigning.
There were four mailings I received from Koehler.
The first, about the Second Amendment, arrived on October 23rd, just eight days before the end of early voting.
The next came on October 26th.
That was the endorsement from Lakewood Village President Erin Smith.
Two others arrived on October 27th. One was a Pro-Life pitch from Irene Napier.
The other was aimed at senior citizens about Medicare.
If you compare the two sets of vote totals, you will see both Democrats picked up strength once the early and absentee votes were folded in.
Interestingly, Jim Roden picked up more than Jim Kennedy.
Since Roden’s pieces attacking Koehler seem to have gone out the weekend before the election, I can’t figure out why.
Maybe someone else can.
These totals for District 4 do not include early and absentee votes.
After early and absentee votes were added the results were what you see above for District 4.
Similarly, I cannot figure out why Koehler’s total went down after the inclusion of early and absentee votes.
Looking at the two sets of results for District 3, I can’t see much difference.
There’s not much difference in District 4 either.
Hammerand was down about a quarter of a percentage point.
There was hardly any difference for Sandy Salgado.
Same with Sue Draffkorn.
Fourth place Republican primary winner Bob Martens was down a tad.
And Democrat Mary Margaret Maule was up three-tenths of a percentage point.
Maule sent out mailings, but none of the Republicans did.
Here’s what the tallies looked like for District 5 prior to adding the early and absentee votes.
These are District 5′s numbers without late arriving absentee ballots.
In District 5, which is comprised mainly of the Woodstock area in Dorr Township, western Lake in the Hills and eastern Huntley, Green Party candidate Frank Wedig did a bit better with election day voters than early voters. Perhaps that is because early and absentee voting is driven by the two power parties.
There may be evidence of that in Democrat incumbent Paula Yensen’s doing better after early and absentee votes were added to the in-person ballots.
The difference was over one-third of a percentage point.
No early or absentee ballot are included in these District 6 totals, which are what people say on the County Clerk’s web site Tuesday night.
Here are the near final results for District 6. Nothing missing but any absentee ballots that did not arrive by election day.
In District 6, the most rural in McHenry County, the extent to which the Republicans and Democrats drive early and absentee balloting can be seen by looking at Larry Smith’s totals before and after those votes are added into the in-person ballots.
On election day, Independent Smith got 11.63% of the vote.
Adding in the early and absentee ballots dropped his share to 11.31%.
Evertsen, McCann and Aavang also saw their shares diminish with the adding of the non-election day votes.
Democrats Scott Summers and Jay Kadakia saw their percentages increase, while Jack Franks’ favorite Ryan Heuser experienced a drop.
So, put on your analytical caps and tell folks what you can tease out of the differences between the numbers lots of people when to bed thinking were the final results and the near complete counts after the early and absentee ballots were added some time after I stopped writing articles.
Remember that any image can be enlarged by clicking on it.
