McHenry County Blog

A December 30th  press release from We Ask America:

Consensus: Romney

Our last presidential tracking poll in Iowa mirrors what most others are showing in their polling: Mitt Romney may be finally breaking through the clutter. And while Romney’s detractors will undoubtedly snort in derision about his lackluster numbers in the head-to-head category, it gets more interesting when we asked them: “No matter who you support, which candidate do you think will ultimately be the GOP candidate for president?”

First , here are the top-line results from our December 29, 2011 poll of 889 Iowa Republicans who confirmed they plan to participate in a caucus. The first column is the normal head-to-head results, while the second column shows who the poll participants think will ultimately prevail:

While many in the media seem to be focusing on the move up the food chain by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum and the falling numbers for the last flavor-of-the-day Ron Paul, Romney seems finally to be breaking through as Iowa Republicans get closer to Caucus Day. Perhaps more important is the fact that 39 percent of all poll participants believe that Romney will ultimately be the flag carrier for the GOP in the fall.

Let’s see how each candidate’s supporters responded to the “who will ultimately win” question in the crosstab below. (It can be a little confusing reading this…here’s an example: reading left to right, the first row indicates that 51% of the people who say they will support Michelle Bachmann in a caucus believe that she will indeed be the ultimate winner, while 5 percent of those will vote for her believe that Newt Gingrich will ultimately win, and 2 percent think Huntsman will win…and so on.) Here’s the table:

Of course, the madcap Iowa caucus system offers lots of chances for rapid ascent and descent–and bad weather can improve the prospects of those candidates with good corn-fed organizations…like Ron Paul. Plus, time will certainly tell whether the newly found popularity of Santorum will be lasting or not.

But maybe–just maybe–Mitt Romney will finally begin to fulfill the destiny so many others have predicted for him.

———-

Remember that rounding each entry to the nearest whole number leads to some columns or rows not adding up exactly to 100%.

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

That’s pretty much what the We Ask America polling folks ask as they release results from last night’s phone calls to Iowa residents.

Here’s the press release:

Down the Newt Chute

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 06:59 AM PST

It’s becoming all too predictable.

As soon as a GOP presidential candidate gains traction in Iowa, the bright lights hit him/her and they melt down like a cheap candle.

The latest to follow the pattern is, of course, Newt Gingrich.

Just 15 days ago, we measured Newt with a robust 30 percent. But everyone—including the merry elves at We Ask America—warned that Gingrich could soon travail down the Newt Chute due to the cyclical habits exhibited by GOP frontrunners and the former Speaker’s penchant for provocative barbs.

Sure enough, Gingrich appears to be fading badly, but those who have dumped him seem to have spread their new affections more evenly than others have reported.
While Ron Paul has picked up a bit more of Newt’s castoffs,  the field is starting to look like a real horse race. Here’s our latest numbers from last night and a tracking comparison of the last five polls we conducted in the Hawkeye State:

The results for Ron Paul in last night’s poll may actually be a couple of points better than it shows here among the general electorate due to his strength in the 35-44 & 45-54 age brackets, but the Iowa caucuses skew older so we’re not ready to grant him the Clear Leader Status yet. However, Paul reportedly is the only candidate who has the ground troops to put a live body in each of the 1,700+ Iowa precincts…an impressive feat to say the least. In addition, Congressman Paul has been among the most consistent performers in Iowa and elsewhere. Combine those facts with the quirkiness of Iowa caucus system and it’s impossible to not put him at the top of the heap for now.

But perhaps Paul would be better off NOT being looked at as the Big Kahuna given the fate of the last few players who occupied the top of the leader board. Like the Greek legend of Icarus, every Republican who flies too close to the sun in an attempt to escape the surly bonds of the pack ends up melting his/her wings in the blazing heat of the sun.

With President Barack Obama reportedly regaining some lost ground, can the Republicans finally find someone who can take the heat?

The only firm that bothered to survey the 8th Congressional District race between Melissa Bean, Joe Walsh and Bill Scheurer (and predicted that Walsh could win) has polled Iowa again.

We Ask America’s poll results and press release follow:

Tracking Iowa

Posted: 29 Nov 2011 06:47 AM PST

Our last Iowa test came just after Herman Cain‘s past problems surfaced, but before many details or additional accusers were exposed. Since then, most of the other Republican candidates have plodded through the Hawkeyes’ cornfields and watched as Newt Gingrich quietly ascended back up the slippery rungs of the nation’s political ladder.

Those who predicted Gingrich’s demise months ago have had to eat a bit of crow lately as the former House Speaker maintained a long self-induced binge of measured presence. While few question Gingrich’s keen intellect, even fewer believed he could control his penchant for occasional outbursts that pin the needle on the Bizarro-meter. Sure enough, those waiting for him to pop off yet another verbal grenade jumped ugly on his “get a bath, then get a job” quote concerning the Occupy Wall Street movement. But that throw-away line threw a little red meat into the corner of the True Believers who were already starting to rally behind their newly awakened hero.

Gingrich followed his snarky comment against the Occupy Movement with statements about immigration that infuriated some of his staunchest supporters–especially since he poked many in his own party in the eye by saying:

“I don’t see how the party that says it’s the party of the family is going to adopt an immigration policy which destroys families that have been here a quarter century.”

His so-called soft-on-immigration views set up a blur of Tweets, texts, blogs and moans. A top staffer for Iowa’s Republican Governor Terry Branstad tweeted that Gingrich “did himself significant harm tonight on immigration among caucus and primary voters,” and his opponents tried to pile on. But as the press (and some supporters) pointed out, Newt’s stance on immigration–while evolving–has a consistency of theme and thought. And many of those who disagree with him on that issue gave him a pass for both his forthrightness and reasoned approach. The presidential primary’s perennial bridesmaid, Mitt Romney, tried to get some traction on the issue, but had to answer questions about his own flip-floppish background on the issue. Still, Romney’s assertion that Gingrich’s position on amnesty would serve as a magnet for illegal immigration was oft quoted and paraphrased by many and undoubtedly serves to provide spice to a fairly mundane political debate horizon.

Whether Gingrich to can survive the ongoing Whack-a-Mole game being played in the Republican primary is anyone’s guess. But as the following results show, he’s surging for now:

Although we suspect these results represent more of a spike than a lasting spread, there is no doubt that Gingrich has a strong lead in Iowa for now. However, Newt needs to look no further that Herman Cain’s numbers in this poll to see how quickly the earth can shift in politics.

Our belief that these results may represent a flick in the measurement gauge will be tested when we go back into Iowa in a week or so. In the meantime, we’ll see how well Gingrich endures as the pin cushion du jour.

We Ask America, the only polling firm that called Joe Walsh’s victory over Melissa Bean, has surveyed Iowa Republicans.  I thought you might find the results interesting, because Herman Cain is still a leader, even though people were questioned after a week’s negative national coverage.  The calls were made on Sunday, November 6th.

The figures show Cain at 22%, Gingrich at 18% and Romney at 15%.

Chef Mickey Mouse

Not in Illinois.

Of course.

I fondly remember the annual columns by Daily News columnist Mike Royko after elections.

He would get the names of fictional characters who had received votes for office.

Mickey Mouse usually got more than any other, although my favorite cartoon character Donald Duck sometimes got a few.

While visiting Galena a couple of weekends ago, I read a front page story in the Telegraph Herald headlined,

One-day social media
campaign propels
write-in to victory

Maquoketa school board hopeful outpolls
the only candidate on the ballot

Debra Lane received 258 ballots to 170 for Todd Green.

Although Lane would not say who started the campaign, there’s more than a hint through the identification of Lane as Paulette Horner, co-president of the Maquoketa Education Association. She said she passed on the information, although she stressed that her organization doesn’t “endorse any school board candidates.”

The man on the ballot didn’t even know he had opposition until a reporter called to tell him the results.

Above I pointed out this did not happen in Illinois.

That’s because write-in candidates who do not register at least 60 days before the primary election.

Thursday, January 19th, for next March’s primary election.

Members of the Illinois General Assembly didn’t want people who get angry/motivated at the last minute to be able to challenge incumbents with whom members had relationships.

The only polling firm that called Joe Walsh’s 2010 fall victory over Melissa Bean was We Ask America. (As far as I know, it was the only firm who polled unless Melissa Bean commissioned one and, if so, it never made the light of day.)

Today, a poll of presidential preferences by the same company has been released. It is below:

Iowa’s recent GOP straw poll is now behind us. Did you feel the earth move? Did you notice how it changed the entire political landscape? Did you follow every nuance and savor the savvy punditry?

Neither did we.

But the circumstances in Iowa did remind us of a clever idea a subscriber gave us: Why not ask Iowa Republicans who they would LEAST like to see nominated as president?

We couldn’t resist that one. Besides, the weird set up for the straw poll involving paying to play doesn’t exactly give us a great deal of confidence that the kernels of Iowa corn put into each candidate’s baskets were truly representative of the heartland’s GOP landscape.

Putting the list of candidates together caused a bit of a debate around here. Tim Pawlenty took himself out of it before we pulled the trigger, and Sarah Palin made the list since her bus tour started traipsing across the Midwest right before the events in the Hawkeye State. Someone suggested that Rudy Giuliani be included since he’s playing footsie with the media about running again, but our own straw poll left Rudy off the ticket. In the end, we included the following individuals in our list:

• Michele Bachmann
• Herman Cain
• Newt Gingrich
• Jon Huntsman
• Sarah Palin
• Ron Paul
• Rick Perry
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum

While we were at it, we asked the general electorate how they felt about the job President Obama is doing and a question concerning the likelihood of voting for him. Those who told us they consider themselves Republicans were then asked who they would MOST like to have as their nominee … followed by the piece de resistance: who they’d LEAST like to have nominated. Click IOWA POLL OUTLINE to see the poll script.

Here are the results: (if you want to download more details including some crosstabs, here they are: Iowa 081611.

All results have been weighted to normalize against  gender over/undersampling.

The eye opener to us was President Obama’s approval and re-elect numbers (click the link above for look at more detailed results ). Like we’ve seen in other Midwestern states, a higher-than-expected percentage of self-proclaimed Democrats disapprove of his job performance. But the real surprise was the 20% who said they won’t automatically vote to re-elect him until they know who he’s running against. To be fair, the re-elect question is asked in a vacuum–no opponent was specified, so these number cannot be viewed as a hardcore sign of impending demise. However, Independents’ responses are even more troubling to the president–a 60% hit on the negative end of the re-elect question clearly indicates their willingness to be wooed by another candidate.

Iowa may have been a big boost for Barack Obama four years ago…but for now, the corn-fed natives of Iowa might be developing a wandering eye.

The County Board of Polk County, Iowa, has selected Tazewell County, Illinois, Administrator David Jones to be it new County Administrator.

McHenry County Administrator Peter Austin was among the final five applicants interviews.  He sent me the following email about the process:

Peter Austin

I found out last night that the position had been offered to David Jones, the Tazewell County Administrator.

Polk County did a fabulous job in their interview process.

Through this thorough process it became clear that my view of the role of the County Administrator was not exactly the same as that of the Polk County Board of Supervisors.

I was not willing to change my position because I already have a great job in a community that is great for my family.

Peter Austin

The Des Moines Register is reporting that McHenry County Administrator Peter Austin is a finalist for the top post in Polk County, Iowa.

Polk County has more than 100,000 more residents than McHenry County, coming with 430,640 people in the 2010 U.S. Census.

308,760 were counted in McHenry County.

There are four others being considered for the $140,000 to $200,000 post.

Two are from Michigan Counties–Muskegon and Marquett– one is from Gallatin County, Montana, while the final one is Illinois’ Tazewell County Administrator David Jones.

Yesterday I found this license plate.

It’s pretty easy to tell that its owner likes golf and is from Iowa.

Maybe the “X” in the

means its owner wishes he or she were back in Iowa so he or she could go see the University of Iowa’s Hawkeyes.

There was a lot of heavy snow that I shoveled Friday night before we went out to dinner at the Crystal Lake Country Club. I was really tired and slept as late as I can remember.

Undoubtedly part of the reason was because of the barbecued ribs and the rest of the food I stuffed down my gullet.

As I was finishing the ribs off for lunch, I got to page four of Saturday’s Chicago Tribune and, lo and behold, there was a big, 856-word article on libertarian Republican Party primary candidate Ron Paul, headlined,

The blotch on the article next to the Iowa voter’s photo is barbecue sauce.

Maybe because I played the role of the ignored candidate for Illinois governor in 2002, I look at ignored candidates more than others. I’ve always admired underdogs.

And does “underdog” fit obstetrician Ron Paul’s campaign.

Even the slogan of the recent movie by that name fits the campaign, if you will allow a substitute spelling for “paw.”

And this underdog physician has certainly been ignored by the mainstream media.

The Chicago Tribune ignored Paul’s 1,500-person Hyatt Regency rally in mid-September.

But they covered John McCain’s Union League Club press conference.

And the press conferences of the other “leading” presidential candidates who just stopped in Chicago to raise money and decided to get some free press.

I’ll show you the Chicago Tempo photo of him as a “lonely guy” with no supporters again.

Until, he ended up raising more money in one day than any other presidential candidate ever has…twice.

Then, the Tribune gave him front page coverage.

Now, Paul’s campaign is sitting on a couple of tens of millions of dollars, enough, his campaign folks say, to take him through the February 5th primary elections.

I pointed out that Paul is the only candidate with energized Illinois supporters.

While that does not by any means translate into significant numbers of votes, it meant something to press coverage four years ago to Howard Dean.

Dean got it.

Paul hasn’t.

Now in a “cover our read end” article “just in case,” the Tribune assigned reporter Jason George to check out what the Paul campaign is doing in Iowa.

Illinois’ ex-presidential candidate John Cox’ campaign manager Craig Bergman is Paul’s political director there. Cox spent a lot of time in Iowa, so my guess is that Bergman has a lot of current grass roots Republican contacts. State chairman Drew Ivers ran the 1988 Pat Robertson campaign, plus two for Pat Buchanan. More contacts.

University of Iowa political scientist David Redlawsk had this observation:

“It might be the one thing that will make the Republican caucuses interesting.”

Paul now has thirty staffers in Iowa, up from four, and hundreds of volunteers, the article says.

“So, could Paul end up in the top three?” reporter George asks. “Could Paul ace out better-known candidates like New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain?”

“Odder things have happened,” political scientist Fedlawsk points out, noting that Pat Robertson finished second ahead of V.P. George Bush in 1988.

The Tribune found one “normal” (my characterization) Iowa Republican, a veterinarian named Carl Bockenstedt. He’s dropping off literature to farmers as he tends their animals.

“Here we are, a model family in Iowa, and the people who are supposed to work for us don’t.”

I think he’s talking about government folks in Washington.

Maybe that attitude among Republicans is why the Chicago Tribune wrote Saturday’s

“Does Ron Paul Have a Chance to Do
Better than the Tribune Has Treated Him?”

article. Former Springfield bureau writer Christi Parsons even mentions “maverick libertarian” Paul in her national wrap-up article, but can’t bring herself to call his position on abortion “pro-life.”

Meanwhile, this in the Wall Street Journal, written by editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader:

” Mr. Paul draws an unusual mix of libertarians, fiscally conservative Democrats, conservative Republicans, home-schoolers, vegans, gambling aficionados, anti-abortion activists and others who want the government to butt out of some aspect of their lives.”

All images may be enlarged by clicking on them. The blimp is from Ron Paul Blimp. Here is was in Norfolk, Virginia, now near Orlando, Florida.