McHenry County Blog

Since so many folks from McHenry County have crossed the Wisconsin border to participate in election on behalf of and in opposition to Governor Scott Walker, I thought the following We Ask American poll results might be of interest.

Treading Water

Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker has been a lighting rod since first being elected in 2010.

Walker’s take-no-prisoner persona early in his first term exacerbated the polarizing reforms he promoted and muscled through the state legislature.

The subsequent highly charged political atmosphere led to a hard-fought recall election which Walker won handily.

In speeches, Walker continues to somewhat rue his role in the rhetoric that dominated the period and has become a sought-after speaker for pro-smaller government and business groups around the country.

In a recent event in Illinois where Walker was the keynote speaker, the crowd — which was made up of business types who are accustomed to oceans of state government red ink — literally gasped when Walker touted turning Wisconsin’s big deficit into a tidy surplus.

But everyone likes other states’ leaders, and Walker isn’t traveling the nation to talk about the things that aren’t working so well for the state.

His opponent will cherry pick statistics that paint a gloomy picture of Wisconsin (for example, employment numbers aren’t great), but Walker’s successes are viewed by many as genuine and he’s good at projecting the glass as half full.

Clearly, the effect of Walker’s reforms and accomplishments will not be fully measured before next year’s election.

With Wisconsin’s economy viewed as “treading water” and the discontent from last year’s political wars still fresh in the minds of voters, how will the public view Scott Walker now?

As with all governors in this series of polls, we asked likely Wisconsin voters a straightforward and simply worded question:

“Do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing?”

Here are the results:

As we pointed out in yesterday’s initial poll in in this series [on Pat Quinn], these approval ratings are probably as much a measure of voters’ opinion of state government as a guide to re-electability.

Gov. Walker’s overall approval rating now is nearly identical to what we saw in July, 2011 although he seems to have lost some mojo among Independents.

Yet, Walker survived a nasty recall attempt and has lived to see some positive results from his efforts.

Assuming he runs again, he’ll face a Democratic opponent who won’t have President Obama leading the ticket.

Still, many Wisconsin voters continue to carry the scars of the uncivil war that broke out after Walker’s ramrod approach to his reforms blew up.

We believe that–once again–Wisconsin will be among the most politically interesting states to watch in 2014.

Today’s message is there for all to see at Lowe Excavating between Cary and Crystal Lake.

Marshall Lowe’s message board reads,

Illinois Problems
Solved.
Annex to Wisconsin.

I would suggest the bushes be trimmed so the whole message can be read before one is upon the sign location.

John Kass lamented the lack of an Illinois Scott Walker last Thursday.

He certainly is asking the right question:

“Where is Illinois’ Scott Walker?”

I was tempted to prepare a sign to affix to me chest asking.

“Are you the Illinois Scott Walker?”

but didn’t get around to it.

That thought pretty much left my mind until Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady started throwing red meat to the audience at the Tinley Park Convention.

“Isn’t it nice to see courage rewarded?” Brady asked after explaining his joy at watching Walker beat back the Democrats’ recall effort.

He noted with irony and derision Pat Quinn’s reaction, “Illinois is different.”

“We are under the thumb of a controlling, vindictive, ethically challenged, self-serving leprechaun, and I mean no disrespect to leprechauns, Speaker Mike Madigan,” Brady said, setting the tone of the gathering.

Brady pointed out that a mere 5,000 votes in the right House districts could have made Tom Cross Speaker.

And just 31,000 votes would have meant Bill Brady would have been elected Governor, instead of Quinn.

A pick of six seats in the Senate and six in the House would turn control over to the GOP.

Next came speeches by elected officials.

First up was Peoria’s Aaron Schock, first elected in 2008.

He told of passing federal free trade legislation for Columbia and having received a call from the CEO of Caterpillar Corporation, based in his home town. He was congratulated and told the a new plant would be built that would create 1,400 new jobs.

But, that the plant would not be build in Illinois because of our Workers’ Comp and tort liability laws.

“If we keep the same boneheads in Springfield, we won’t get the benefits,” Schock said.

House Minority Leader Tom Cross was next.

Signaling a line of attack against Democrats outside of Chicago, he pledged opposition to Mike Madigan’s and John Cullerton’s proposal to transfer $20 billion of teacher pension burden from state taxpayers to property taxpayers.

The man whose rant against Madigan’s one-man rule spread throughout television and the internet was introduced next.

“We want Mike! We want Mike!” spread throughout the room.

“If you take one thing out of this, other states don’t have one person that has total power,” Bost emphasized. “That’s a dictatorship!”

Former State Rep. and State Senator Randy Hultgren, elected to Congress in 2010 followed former colleague Bost.

“Illinois is broke.

“Illinois is broken.

“Reduced to a punchline.”

He told of being in Indiana and talked to its Governor, Mitch Daniels.

“Being Governor in the state next to Illinois is like living next to Homer Simpson.  Anything you do looks good.

“If Wisconsin can do it, Illinois can do it,” Hultgren concluded.

Adam Kinzinger, also elected in 2010, was next up.

“America is the greatest hope for civilization,” the Air Force pilot, now in the Illinois National Guard, started out.

He observed that young folks signing up for the Armed Forces today at age 18 were only 7 on 9-11.

“America is worth defending and I will defend it,” he said movingly.

“The American DNA is a winning DNA.

“The defense of this country also extends here at home.

“We have to beat Mike Madigan.

“We have to build a brick wall in Illinois” so Nancy Pelosi’s prediction that “the route to the [Democratic Party congressional] majority goes through Illinois.,”Kinzinger concluded.

Senate Republican leader Christine Radogno  stepped to the podium.

“We need reinforcements.

“We can’t do it without you.

“You are the grass roots.

“The wave is coming and we’re going to ride it.”

Brady then introduced Congressman Joe Walsh, also in his first term.

He noted that Walsh got no help from the Republican Party in his narrow victory over Democrat Melissa Bean, but “that won’t happen again.”

“There is no person they want to beat more than Joe Walsh.”

Walsh entered to a standing ovation.

He began his speech by relating that he was a naturally smiling Irish Catholic guy.

Then there was the “but.”

“I did not go to Washington last year to smile.

“There’s very little subtle about Joe Walsh.

“When I say the President has not freaking clue what he is doing, I mean every word of it.”

Then Walsh took after Mike Madigan.

“No one person should run a state.

“He is a king.

“He is a dictator.

“He is corrupt.

“He symbolizes everything that is wrong in Illinois.

“Shame on us for not having the courage and the fortitude to say that.”

Moving on to his re-election race against Tammy Duckworth, whose name he did not mention, Walsh said, “This White House and the entire Demcoratic Party has a target on my back.

He explained that he “just goe[es] and say[s] what [he] mean[s].

“Amazing things begin to happen.”

Walsh referenced John Kass’ column:

“Where is Illinois’ Scott Walker?”

[At this point I began wondering if he was standing on the stage.]

“The Republican Party has been compliant.

“We’ve lost our way.

“Every nine minutes somebody move out of this state,” he said emphasizing it was taxpayers moving elsewhere.

“That’s terrible.

“We can’t let that happen.”

Ratcheting up the rhetoric Walsh proclaimed Illinois Republicans “must stand for everything that the Mike Madigans don’t.

“We don’t stand for making everybody dependent on government.

“We stand for the opposite.

“We’re the party of everything else.

“I’m gong to ask you to be responsible for your own life.”

[Hear Joe Walsh's speech, posted by The Prairie State Review, here.]

Another standing ovation occurred after Walsh finished his speech.

Freshman Congressman Bobby Shilling spoke next.

I didn’t get a chance to take notes, but I did get a decent close-up.

After him State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, head of the Mitt Romney effort in Illinois in 2008 and 2012, spoke.

He is widely thought to be laying the groundwork for a campaign for Governor in 2014.

A video greeting from State Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka completed the speeches.

The Chicago Tribune article by Rick Pearson failed to mention that Walsh even spoke, not to mention that he was greeted with a standing ovation and another one after he finished his speech.

He did note the attacks on Mike Madigan.

= = = = =

In the John Kass piece, the columnist mentions Walsh, but not favorably.

“I’m not talking about a Republican who’d scream with veins popping out of his or her neck and a wild angry look in the eye.  If you want someone in your face, you’ve got Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, and you can have him.  What was compelling about Walker wasn’t his in-you-face personality.  It was his ideas.”

But, as Party Chairman Pat Brady reporting Demcoratic Party Governor as saying, Illinois is different.”

From the crowd’s reaction to Walsh, I think Kass’ take on Walsh was not shared by a large proportion of the Republicans in attendance.

Friday’s editorial cartoon in the Chicago Sun-Times by Jack Higgins is trenchant.

I knew the word worked, but had to look up its meaning: “vigorously effective and articulate.”

He shows traffic leaving Wisconsin.

The sign says, “”Leaving Wisconsin, Scott Walker, Governor.”

The next sign is over the Illinois border:

Entering Illinois
We should be
so lucky

Unfortunately, the Sun-Times has not posted the cartoon, so I can’t link to it.

Look what reached by inbox from Wisconsin.

It was obvious that feelings were running hot in the recall election in which Republican Governor Scott Walker soundly defeated Tom Barrett.

Want to know how high?

Take a look at the sign vandalism below:

As I was driving to a sleep apnea study in Algonquin last night shortly after the polls closed in Wisconsin, I heard that exist polls had Scott Walker and Tom Barrett tied.

Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Sentinel-Journal noticed and predicted the election would not be called until late in the night, as did the station I was listening to.

I discovered that Seattle PI reported last night,

“A CNN exit poll had Walker and Barrett tied at 50 percent apiece.”

But when I got to the Centegra facility in Algonquin, Fox News was predicting Scott Walker to have won.

Surprised, I switched to CNN.

Same prediction there.

I concluded that the exit polls must have been wrong…by a lot.

Tonight I tried to find that “Walker and Barrett are tied” statistic, but could not.

I did find this breakdown of exit polling that has a CNN heading:

Notice the information about the tie race can’t be found.

Those offering hope to President Obama do not refer to the head-to-head results.

• Here’s one from Ronald Brownstein, writing in the National Journal.
• In the same publication here’s another by Jill Lawrence. She manages to focus on the 7-point lead that Obama has over Romney, but not the approximately 7-point mistake in the gubernatorial exit poll result.
• Nothing in the Associated Press story about there being a tie in the exit poll. The closest the story came was a description that the voters were “passionately divided.”

My question is why this finding:

“Results gave President Obama a 54-42 percent lead over Republican nominee-in-waiting Willard “Mitt” Romney.”

is more significant than the demonstrably false apparent and unposted CNN exit poll 50-50 finding in the Walker-Barrett contest?

I found this YouTube video of death threats and/or wishes for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker on “The Prairie State Review.”

Warner Todd Huston has some comments on it, but I think it speaks for itself.

The video was made by Joe KenHa of The Right Sphere.

If these death threats were about Barack Obama, the Secret Service would be visiting everyone of the senders.

There must be a dam at the Illinois-Wisconsin border.

The water from Wisconsin’s boiling tea kettle didn’t spill over the state border last Saturday when the McHenry County Republican Party decided no candidate against Jack Franks was better than Tea Party activist Tonya Franklin.

I can’t help but note what Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady had to say about Wisconsin Scott Walker’s victory–the only Governor in U.S. history to survive a recall election:

“I enjoyed seeing all of the energy from Illinois Republicans over the past few weeks for Scott Walker and I know that energy will carry over to the Illinois Republican State Convention this weekend and to our elections this fall.

“I look forward to personally congratulating (Republican National Committee Chairman) Reince Priebus on Friday in Tinley Park for all his work in ensuring victory tonight.”

The abdication of the 63rd District seat to 7-time Mike Madigan supporter “Chainsaw Jack” Franks was three days before our state party leader’s praised that same energy.

Some may find some irony in the flat out rejection of the offer to take on a McHenry County GOP Establishment-predicted suicide run from a woman who had the energy to campaign in Wisconsin.

Not to mention for a month volunteering in Florida four years ago helping John McCain try to win the state on her own dime.

Ironically, McHenry County GOP Chairman seems more interested in not losing McHenry County to Barack Obama in 2012 as he did in 2008, than having a chance to beat Democratic Party State Rep. Jack Franks.  (From email discouraging Precinct Committeemen from attending the Special Meeting Saturday at which a crucial step could have been taken that could have led to a Republican opponent to Jack Franks being on the ballot: “We are committed to help elect our Congressmen, our State Senators and Representatives, our County Board candidates and most of all, electing a Republican President.“  Emphasis added.)

On the CNN fall election may last night while the analyst was debating on whether to change the color in Wisconsin from solid blue to pale blue, I noticed Illinois was the brightest of blues.

National commentators don’t share Tryon’s belief that Mitt Romney can carry Illinois this fall.

Carrying McHenry County will, at best, give bragging rights to local Republicans, while beating Jack Franks could make a difference in who controls the Illinois House.

A slim possibility, I will admit, but still a possibility, given what happened north of us.

Above the state line, Tea Party activists–even from Illinois–have been embraced by Republican leadership, including the Chairman of the National Republican Party Reince Priebus: “Thank God for the Tea Party.”

“We’re not in competition with the Conservative Movement. We’re just part of it,” Priebus said in an interview on Breitbart. “We need to have a party about addition and multiplication, not division and subtraction.”

Priebus, a Wisconsin resident, said,

“Courage is on the ballot in Wisconsin.

“We need more people to run for office and govern like they campaigned.”

Can’t help but wonder how he would react to the McHenry County Republican Party’s defeatist attitude.

And, arguably, the Party Leadership’s policy of, how did the National Chairman put it?

“Division and subtraction.”

Kool-Aid in the 63rd District better than Tea?

A perspective from the Left (“The Political Environment, Progressive reporting from Wisconsin and the region. Scott Walker Recall Updated Frequently.”) on the Wisconsin election points out:

“But Walker got to spend and benefit from $35-$50 million, and an advantage over Barrett by something like 7:1 this time, so where’s Walker’s growth? Yes, he won, but not in a landslide.”

We Ask America had the race at 54-44-4, the 4 being undecided, but warned that differential turnout was what the contest was all about.

I was listening to Milwaukee’s WTMJ coming home from a sleep apnea study this morning at Centegra’s Algonquin outpost and heard that no poll had predicted a Walker victory.

I guess, as with the mainstream media’s missing We Ask American’s poll on the Joe Walsh-Melissa Bean 2010 election, the commentator just didn’t look closely enough at this Illinois emerging source of information.

A McCormick Foundation analyst was interviewed.

Commenting on the effect the victory would have nationally, he said, “The political dynamic is certainly different.”

But, as the swim coaches say,

“You can win the race, if you’re not in the pool.”

And, no one in the McHenry County Republican Party leadership will be wearing this sweatshirt at this weekend’s GOP State Convention in Tinley Park:

Here’s the press release from the only polling firm to get the Joe Walsh-Melissa Bean race right:

Who Survives?

Our final poll in the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election comes after an impressive debate performance by Democrat Tom Barrett — who may have saved his best for last.

The highlight for many viewers was when Barrett took beleaguered Republican Gov. Scott Walker to the woodshed for airing a very tough ad that displays an image of a severely beaten child who later died of his injuries, suggesting that as Milwaukee mayor, Barrett’s police department “didn’t consider it a crime.”

In reality, the person who beat the child was arrested but escaped prosecution through a bureaucratic blunder not of Barrett’s doing.

Barrett’s outrage was punctuated with this zinger: “I have a police department that arrests felons. He [Walker] has a practice of hiring them.”

That line, of course, refers to the ongoing “John Doe” investigation that has resulted in the arrest of a number of Walker’s former aides for their alleged role in embezzling funds raised to help veterans and their families. (You can read the details of that investigation here.)

So, as fireworks continue to explode over the political horizon in the Dairy State, we asked 1,570 likely voters who they support in the June 5 election. Here are the results.
Those surprising results would project at a 56-44 final win for Walker.

HOWEVER, while Walker continues to lead Barrett, we once again caution readers that this is an extremely difficult election to predict.

Turnout is king in all elections, and it may be even more important in this one. Wisconsin’s labor movement is keen to get as many of the anti-Walker voters to the polls as possible and have displayed the ability to rally their troops effectively.

And Wisconsin regulations allow Election Day voter registration with a minimum of residency documentation–something that has both sides whispering of potential abuse from their opponents.

Too many polls have been conducted showing Walker in the lead (even Barrett’s own poll shows him trailing) to disbelieve the sentiments displayed in the results.

But Walker’s continuing problem with the John Doe investigation and a bit of swagger among his supporters could–possibly–keep some of them home.

Then again, Barrett’s aggression that he displayed in the final debate may have come too late.

At any rate, it may be appropriate to say that there could be no winner in this election–only a survivor.

Remember the “Recall Santa” yard sign a friend of McHenry County Blog found in the Milwaukee area.

Now someone has turned it into a tee shirt and trade marked the phrase.

I found this web site for Recall Santa. It is the one with the t-shirt.

It is amusing.

Consider this statement:

“We were all lied to regarding this so called ‘naughty list’ and so many of us were then deprived of what we wanted.

“Is it too much to ask for everyone to get equal present rights!

“Santa Must Go!!!!!!

A week from now Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker will learn whether he has been recalled from office or not.

National Democrats are downplaying the importance of the vote now that the polls are pointing to victory for Walker.