McHenry County Blog

Since so many folks from McHenry County have crossed the Wisconsin border to participate in election on behalf of and in opposition to Governor Scott Walker, I thought the following We Ask American poll results might be of interest.

Treading Water

Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker has been a lighting rod since first being elected in 2010.

Walker’s take-no-prisoner persona early in his first term exacerbated the polarizing reforms he promoted and muscled through the state legislature.

The subsequent highly charged political atmosphere led to a hard-fought recall election which Walker won handily.

In speeches, Walker continues to somewhat rue his role in the rhetoric that dominated the period and has become a sought-after speaker for pro-smaller government and business groups around the country.

In a recent event in Illinois where Walker was the keynote speaker, the crowd — which was made up of business types who are accustomed to oceans of state government red ink — literally gasped when Walker touted turning Wisconsin’s big deficit into a tidy surplus.

But everyone likes other states’ leaders, and Walker isn’t traveling the nation to talk about the things that aren’t working so well for the state.

His opponent will cherry pick statistics that paint a gloomy picture of Wisconsin (for example, employment numbers aren’t great), but Walker’s successes are viewed by many as genuine and he’s good at projecting the glass as half full.

Clearly, the effect of Walker’s reforms and accomplishments will not be fully measured before next year’s election.

With Wisconsin’s economy viewed as “treading water” and the discontent from last year’s political wars still fresh in the minds of voters, how will the public view Scott Walker now?

As with all governors in this series of polls, we asked likely Wisconsin voters a straightforward and simply worded question:

“Do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing?”

Here are the results:

As we pointed out in yesterday’s initial poll in in this series [on Pat Quinn], these approval ratings are probably as much a measure of voters’ opinion of state government as a guide to re-electability.

Gov. Walker’s overall approval rating now is nearly identical to what we saw in July, 2011 although he seems to have lost some mojo among Independents.

Yet, Walker survived a nasty recall attempt and has lived to see some positive results from his efforts.

Assuming he runs again, he’ll face a Democratic opponent who won’t have President Obama leading the ticket.

Still, many Wisconsin voters continue to carry the scars of the uncivil war that broke out after Walker’s ramrod approach to his reforms blew up.

We believe that–once again–Wisconsin will be among the most politically interesting states to watch in 2014.

A press release from the polling firm We Ask America:
Struggling

IL-Quinn

We Ask America Polls™ kicks off our 2013 public poll offering with a series of surveys focusing on governors who will be up for re-election next year.

It’s important to note that this series of polls asks only one main question:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job [governor's name] is doing?

To be fair, governors are often viewed by the public as the main symbol of state government, and these polls do not measure or predict how well a particular politician will do against any given opponent. The proof of that may be found in our first offering in our home state of Illinois: Democrat Pat Quinn.

We’ve profiled Gov. Quinn before (Tenacious Gadfly), and not much has changed since then.

Illinois continues to struggle under oppressive ($100 billion) public pension debt and multi-billion dollar budget deficits despite a sizable “temporary” state income tax now pumping more into state coffers.

Quinn is often portrayed in press and the political blogosphere in terms of being hapless–not a great portrait for someone seeking re-election in tough times.

Indeed, rumors continue to swirl of the possibility of fellow Democrats trying to take him out in next year’s Primary.

But political coroners have tagged Quinn’s toe a number of times in the past only to be confounded.

Will that be the case in 2014? Perhaps, but these approval numbers simply cannot be dismissed easily:

It’s problematic for Gov. Quinn that support among Independent voters continues to erode for him. Again, let’s be clear that these approval numbers can’t be viewed as a predictor of doom. Quinn’s dismal approval rating didn’t stop him from winning in 2010.

But we’re sure that some will look at these results and assume that Quinn can best be described as the Walking Dead.

A press release from the polling firm We Ask America:

Favorite Son

There’s been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois.

We’ve not paid much attention that that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it.

There isn’t.

We polled 1,198 Illinois likely voters last night. Following are the weighted head-to-head results and a regional breakdown:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 30, 2012 – Participants: 1,198 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 2.95%

Poll type: Automated Date: October 30, 2012 – Participants: 1,198 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 2.95%

	Barack Obama	Mitt Romney	3rd Party
ALL VOTERS	57%	41%	2%
Chicago	82%	16%	2%
Sub. Cook	66%	31%	3%
Collar Counties	44%	55%	1%
Downstate	46%	51%	3%

For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene — outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly — Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln.

No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban “collar counties” or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, Suburban Cook & the Collars), the huge hunk of burning love that his home base provides the president simply cannot be toppled.

Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead, but there is no way that Chicagoland is going to abandon it’s Favorite Son.

Obama even carried McHenry County four years ago.

Meanwhile, a political mailing from Peter Roskam, the man who beat Tammy Duckworth the last time she ran for Congress, surfaced.

It urges people to vote early.

While Roskam recommends voting early at the Crystal Lake City Hall, there are plenty of other early voting locations throughout McHenry County. You can find a list here.

We Ask America was the only published pollster when Joe Walsh upset Melissa Bean in 2010. Its findings showed Walsh has a chance.

Now it comes up with recent findings that Walsh is trailing Tammy Duckworth.

Here is the text:

Illinois 8 – Democrat Tammy Duckworth vs. Republican incumbent Joe Walsh

As we’ve profiled before, this race pits Duckworth, a disabled Iraqi war veteran, against Tea Party favorite Joe Walsh.

While Duckworth hasn’t proven to be a great candidate, she has a distinct advantage in this re-drawn district by running against a guy who seems to enjoy being a lightning rod for controversy.

Walsh surprised many by keeping this race competitive as long as he did, but Duckworth’s campaign has taken advantage of Walsh’s without-exception pro-life views while whacking him for not paying child support.

That one-two punch seems to have pushed Walsh over the edge where he now may be in a free fall:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 – Participants: 1,010 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 3.1%

	Tammy Duckworth	Joe Walsh
ALL VOTERS	54.6%	45.4%
Republicans	19%	81%
Democrats	90%	10%
Independents	52%	48%

Whether it gets worse for Mr. Walsh before Election Day is anyone’s guess, but Tammy Duckworth now appears to be in line for a win on November 6.

This information arrived from the polling firm We Ask American today.  The Joe Walsh data has been published before, but the rest is new.

Illinois Orphans

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 03:46 AM PDT

Illinois is one of those areas considered by some as an “orphan state.”

Barack Obama will surely win here easily with Chicago leading the parade. Like the other orphan states (California & New York) candidates in key Illinois congressional races cannot count on millions of dollars being spent to by the campaigns of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney to persuade voters to put their state in the red or blue column on magic white board election night.

The congressional races are in essence the campaigns leading the parade but they are on their own.

It also means that in some of these targeted districts, President Obama’s home state advantage is a bonus for Democrats aspiring to knock off Republican opponents.

Just so we can pile on even more, the new congressional maps in Illinois were drawn totally by the controlling Democratic Party.

Since some of the polling we’ve done for clients here have recently been released or leaked and we’ve received requests to publicly poll these races, we went back into these six key districts over the past two days to offer up public results.

We’ll give you a thumbnail sketch of each with the basic numbers.

Illinois 17 (NW Illinois)

Located in Northwest Illinois, IL-17 is chock full of blue-collar conservative Democrats. While the new map makes it bluer than the current district, Republican Bobby Schilling was a surprise winner here in the 2010 against incumbent Phil Hare. When We Ask America first wrote about that race and showed Schilling ahead, we were subject to a cascade of skepticism. We stuck by our guns, and affable pizza restaurant owner Schilling stuck to the campaign trail to pull out a surprise victory. This time his opponent is former journalist and city council member Cheri Bustos, the daughter of a powerful Illinois Democrat and family friend of U.S. Senator Dick Durbin. The right-leaning Chicago Tribune has endorsed Schilling and tsk-tsked Bustos for her less-than-forthcoming opinions on key issues. Still, the new 17th District heavily sways Democratic and by all accounts Bustos is a worker. Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 9, 2012 – Participants: 1,183 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 2.9%

Cheri Bustos (D)	Bobby Schilling (R)	Undecided
46.14%	45.81%	8.05%

Illinois 13 (East Central)

IL-13 invokes lyrics from the Grateful Dead: What a long strange trip it’s been. Long-time GOP incumbent and human Q-Tip Tim Johnson was all set to defend his seat against physician David Gill who had won the silver medal in three previous attempts to unseat him. Then Johnson abruptly decided to call it quits. An eclectic groups of wannabe candidates quickly emerged, including a former Miss America who is best known for her crusade against pre-marital sex…not a well-received message among the 30,000+ randy college  students residing in the district. The ultimate choice was Rodney Davis, a respected congressional aide to John Shimkus. While Davis is well know in political circles, his name ID wasn’t great and he found himself starting from Square One this summer. Both Davis and Gill are hard workers in this district that runs the gamut from extreme right to extreme left. On average, it’s leans a bit Democratic, and Independent John Hartman is also on the ticket. Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 7-9, 2012 – Participants: 1,253 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

David Gill (D)	Rodney Davis (R)	John Hartman (I)	Undecided
41.81%	43.92%	5.55%	8.72%

Illinois 12 (Southern Illinois)

The retirement of long-time congressman Jerry Costello (D) threw the doors wide open for this Democratic-leaning but conservative district. Like IL-13, the 12th District traveled down a bumpy road in deciding it’s final pairing: Democrat Bill Enyart and Republican Jason Plummer. Plummer, an executive in a well-known family-owned lumber business, surprised the state as a newcomer in 2010 by beating better known challengers in the GOP’s Lt. Governor race. Plummer and his running mate lost the general election but the 30-year old retained his desire to run for office. Enyart is a former State Adjutant General who came to the party late when the Democratic Primary winner pulled out (he was trailing Plummer and had some baggage). President Obama isn’t very popular in the bucolic southern portion of the state. A Green Party candidate, Paula Bradshaw, is also on the ticket.

Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 10, 2012 – Participants: 1,247 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

Bill Enyart (D)	Jason Plummer (R)	Paula Bradshaw (G)	Undecided
41.78%	43.86%	3.36%	11.00%

Illinois 11 (Western Collars)

This district pits a Republican incumbent–Judy Biggert–against former 14th District Democratic Congressman Bill Foster. Foster is a physicist who surprised many when he won the seat of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert in a 2008 special election. His votes in Congress didn’t quite track with the more conservative area of the district and he was defeated in 2010 by Republican Randy Hultgren. Biggert is a socially moderate Republican from Hinsdale with a reputation as a fiscal conservative with an independent streak. Neither candidate is well known in this newly configured evenly split district. The lead in polls here have teetered back and forth and so far, no one can seem to keep a lead. Here are our results from this week’s poll there:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 10, 2012 – Participants: 1,253 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

Bill Foster (D)	Judy Biggert (R)	Undecided
44.32%	46.05%	9.63%

Illinois 10 (Northern Collars)

The 10th District in Illinois is known for disregarding political party labels but essentially leaning left. Yet, Republican congressional candidates have done well in this area for decades no matter which presidential candidate won. Barack Obama won big here in 2008, as did former Congressman (and now U.S. Senator) Mark Kirk (R). Republican Bob Dold won in 2010 and has kept the district’s tradition for independent thought. He has focused on job-creation issues and been a successful fundraiser. His opponent is Democrat Brad Schneider, a business consultant and political newcomer who survived a hard fought primary in the spring. President Obama is doing very well here, but for now Dold his holding a narrow lead:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 9, 2012 – Participants: 1,172 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 3%

Brad Schneider (D)	Bob Dold (R)	Undecided
45.42%	47.29%	7.29%

Illinois 8 (North Central Collars) 

Two years ago, We Ask America was the only pollster we know of that predicted little-known Republican Tea Party advocate, Joe Walsh, would win his race against Democrat incumbent Melissa Bean. Walsh won that contest in a squeaker and now faces Democrat Tammy Duckworth. Duckworth is a disabled Iraqi war veteran who lost her legs in a helicopter accident. She lost a close 2006 bid for Congress in another district, but IL-8 leans slightly left and most pundits felt she was a shoo-in against the brash Walsh. Walsh has been a magnet for the wrong kind of press, but his Howard Beale-ish “mad as Hell” attitude attracts more local support than many recognize, and this race has become a real zinger that can now go either way. For a great overview of this race, click HERE. Here are our latest results from October 10:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 7-9, 2012 – Participants: 1,158 Likely Voters – Margin of Error: ± 2.9%

Tammy Duckworth (D)	Joe Walsh (R)	Undecided
45.18%	47.89%	6.93%

A press release from Champion News:

Flash Poll: Joe Walsh Takes the Lead Against Tammy Duckworth

CARPENTERSVILLE, IL – With less than four weeks until Election Day, Joe Walsh is in the lead over Tammy Duckworth in the race for Congress in Illinois’ 8th District by 1.5% according to a flash poll taken Tuesday, October 9th. The poll was commissioned by ChampionNews.net.

The poll showed Walsh with 47.4% of the vote to Duckworth’s 45.9%, with only 6.7% undecided. This while Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in the 8th District by 4.6%: 49% to 44.4%. Walsh’s lead stems mainly from his huge advantage amongst independents, where he leads Duckworth by 10% (51% – 41%). Walsh has a 12% lead among male voters and trails by only 3% among female voters.

“Joe Walsh’s steady climb in the polls can be directly attributed to his visibility in the district, being a tireless campaigner and the most accessible member of Congress, and the fact that he is providing specifics on how to get our Country back on track while his opponent is relying on tired talking points and generalities,” explained Jack Roeser, Founder & Publisher of ChampionNews.net.

“Duckworth held a large lead when the race began, considering this district was specifically drawn for her by Mike Madigan.

“But Walsh has continued to climb in the polls, officially taking the lead this week for the first time since the race began.

“The trend is certainly in his favor.”

The automated poll was conducted by We Ask America on Tuesday, October 9th. 1,171 responses were collected, resulting in a margin of error of 2.9%. The full poll summary report can be viewed here or look below:

To the best of my knowledge, McHenry County has only had one resident Congressman–Joe Walsh.

Sure he moved to the county after he decided what district in which to run, but no other Federal representative has done that.

As some reading this publication may know, Walsh is in his second race with a Rahm Emmanuel-recruited woman.

Melissa Bean was his woman when she knocked off Phil Crane and Tammy Duckworth was his pick to beat Peter Roskam.

The Chicago politician’s goal was fulfilled with Bean, but not with Duckworth.

Now, with Duckworth challenging the man who edged out Bean in a district specifically created to allow Duckworth to recapture the seat, money is pouring in from Super PACs to flood the airwaves.

Nevertheless, the Chicago Sun-Times is reporting today that Walsh has much too much of a chance at being re-elected than anyone would have thought right after re-apportionment.

Even Walsh, you will remember thought his chances best against fellow freshman Republican Randy Hultgren.

Here’s what the Sun-Times says,

“We Ask America poll had Walsh at a five-point lead. Roll Call reported that a poll taken in mid-August by the Tarrance Group showed Walsh and Duckworth in a statistical tie. Democrats have reported far wider margins, including releasing numbers Monday that Duckworth was 10 points ahead.”

Crain’s Chicago Business political reporter Greg Hinz is consistentwith the report I had that the race between Democrat Tammy Duckworth and Republican incumbent Joe Walsh is close.

Hinz cites two polls.

The first by the Tarrance Group, a firm that traditionally works for Republican candidates, has a current reading of 47% for Duckworth, 45% for Walsh. Probably a statistic tie when one considers the margin of error.

“…a We Ask America survey — the group is closely affiliated with the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association —…showed a five-point Walsh margin, I’m told,” Hinz added.

It should be noted that We Ask America was the only poll on the 2010 8th District race against Melissa Bean that gave Walsh a chance.

Pretty much no one paid any attention to the 2010 poll.

Take those not confirmed poll results and combine it with the over $800,000 television buy by a Super PAC called Now or Never reported by Kerry Lester in a Daily Herald article yesterday and you know Duckworth is not going to walk away with this election.

You don’t spend that kind of money on a candidate who has no chance.

There must be a dam at the Illinois-Wisconsin border.

The water from Wisconsin’s boiling tea kettle didn’t spill over the state border last Saturday when the McHenry County Republican Party decided no candidate against Jack Franks was better than Tea Party activist Tonya Franklin.

I can’t help but note what Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady had to say about Wisconsin Scott Walker’s victory–the only Governor in U.S. history to survive a recall election:

“I enjoyed seeing all of the energy from Illinois Republicans over the past few weeks for Scott Walker and I know that energy will carry over to the Illinois Republican State Convention this weekend and to our elections this fall.

“I look forward to personally congratulating (Republican National Committee Chairman) Reince Priebus on Friday in Tinley Park for all his work in ensuring victory tonight.”

The abdication of the 63rd District seat to 7-time Mike Madigan supporter “Chainsaw Jack” Franks was three days before our state party leader’s praised that same energy.

Some may find some irony in the flat out rejection of the offer to take on a McHenry County GOP Establishment-predicted suicide run from a woman who had the energy to campaign in Wisconsin.

Not to mention for a month volunteering in Florida four years ago helping John McCain try to win the state on her own dime.

Ironically, McHenry County GOP Chairman seems more interested in not losing McHenry County to Barack Obama in 2012 as he did in 2008, than having a chance to beat Democratic Party State Rep. Jack Franks.  (From email discouraging Precinct Committeemen from attending the Special Meeting Saturday at which a crucial step could have been taken that could have led to a Republican opponent to Jack Franks being on the ballot: “We are committed to help elect our Congressmen, our State Senators and Representatives, our County Board candidates and most of all, electing a Republican President.“  Emphasis added.)

On the CNN fall election may last night while the analyst was debating on whether to change the color in Wisconsin from solid blue to pale blue, I noticed Illinois was the brightest of blues.

National commentators don’t share Tryon’s belief that Mitt Romney can carry Illinois this fall.

Carrying McHenry County will, at best, give bragging rights to local Republicans, while beating Jack Franks could make a difference in who controls the Illinois House.

A slim possibility, I will admit, but still a possibility, given what happened north of us.

Above the state line, Tea Party activists–even from Illinois–have been embraced by Republican leadership, including the Chairman of the National Republican Party Reince Priebus: “Thank God for the Tea Party.”

“We’re not in competition with the Conservative Movement. We’re just part of it,” Priebus said in an interview on Breitbart. “We need to have a party about addition and multiplication, not division and subtraction.”

Priebus, a Wisconsin resident, said,

“Courage is on the ballot in Wisconsin.

“We need more people to run for office and govern like they campaigned.”

Can’t help but wonder how he would react to the McHenry County Republican Party’s defeatist attitude.

And, arguably, the Party Leadership’s policy of, how did the National Chairman put it?

“Division and subtraction.”

Kool-Aid in the 63rd District better than Tea?

A perspective from the Left (“The Political Environment, Progressive reporting from Wisconsin and the region. Scott Walker Recall Updated Frequently.”) on the Wisconsin election points out:

“But Walker got to spend and benefit from $35-$50 million, and an advantage over Barrett by something like 7:1 this time, so where’s Walker’s growth? Yes, he won, but not in a landslide.”

We Ask America had the race at 54-44-4, the 4 being undecided, but warned that differential turnout was what the contest was all about.

I was listening to Milwaukee’s WTMJ coming home from a sleep apnea study this morning at Centegra’s Algonquin outpost and heard that no poll had predicted a Walker victory.

I guess, as with the mainstream media’s missing We Ask American’s poll on the Joe Walsh-Melissa Bean 2010 election, the commentator just didn’t look closely enough at this Illinois emerging source of information.

A McCormick Foundation analyst was interviewed.

Commenting on the effect the victory would have nationally, he said, “The political dynamic is certainly different.”

But, as the swim coaches say,

“You can win the race, if you’re not in the pool.”

And, no one in the McHenry County Republican Party leadership will be wearing this sweatshirt at this weekend’s GOP State Convention in Tinley Park:

A press release from We Ask America:

Turnout

You have to hand it to Wisconsin’s electorate: they are passionate about their politics.

When we first polled the Dairy State’s voters about Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s plummeting approval ratings, many right-leaning types let the blogosphere know how We Ask America’s minions are leaving a ring around the world’s gene pool.

Not to be outdone, our May 13 poll showing Democrat Tom Barrett trailing Walker in their June 5 recall election brought out some equally interesting diatribes from a handful of left-leaning readers.

Our favorite: an email suggesting that we should develop carnal relationships with rusty farm implements.

The latest hub-bub died down a bit soon after when a Marquette Law School poll was released showing results within the margin of error of ours.

Despite the high emotions, its time again to ask Wisconsin voters whether they intend to retain Republican Scott Walker as their governor, or if they prefer Democrat Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett instead.

We asked 1,409 likely voters that question the evening of May 23. Here’s what they said:

In brief, here are the questions we asked:

• Do you plan to vote in the June 5th election? (Negative responses were dropped)
• If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? (Barrett/Walker options rotated)
• Gender?
• Age?
• Are you or any member of your household a member of a public employee union household?

The “public union household” question was asked at the suggestion of a reader.

About 17% identified themselves as a member of a public union household.

Frankly, we look at this figure with a somewhat skeptical eye due to the relatively milquetoast lead Barrett has among those households.

Then again, past polls have detected instances where rank-and-file union members were less passionate on issues than their leaders; the national polls on Card Check showed clearly showed that.

While Walker seems to have built on his lead, those who say this race is all about turnout make an extremely important point.

Too many polls point to Walker as the choice of the electorate to slough off the numbers.

But which side will have the better get-out-the-vote effort?

A massive, well-organized GOTV program by Barrett’s supporters combined with enough of Walker’s supporters staying home can change everything.

Of course, Walker–who has a massive fundraising edge–knows that and won’t be holding anything back.

While the final results may be closer than recent poll indicate, it’s hard to see any “Dewey Defeats Truman” scenario.

In the meantime, we’ll brace ourselves for another round of imaginative suggestions from the North Woods.