McHenry County Blog

Here’s the email about yesterday’s polling from We Ask America:

Romney/Santorum

As America was gearing up to watch the Oscars, We Ask America was in the field in Michigan and Arizona asking likely Republican voters for the final time before Tuesday’s primaries asking voters for their choice for president. This time, we didn’t give participants an option to say they were undecided:

If the Primary Election for President were held today–and you HAD to make a choice–for whom would you vote?

Here’s what Michigan voters said:

Type: Automated – Date: 2/26//2012 – Responses: 984 Likely GOP voters – Margin of Error:± 3.12%

Gingrich	Paul	Romney	Santorum
12.53%	18.08%	36.85%	32.53%

And here’s what Arizona voters had to say:

Type: Automated – Date: 2/26//2012 – Responses: 1,162 Likely GOP voters – Margin of Error:± 2.87%

Gingrich	Paul	Romney	Santorum
20.65%	10.15%	42.66%	26.54%

It appears that Mitt Romney has Arizona tucked away…Michigan may be another story. While Romney has pulled out all the stops in his home state and seems poised for a come-from-behind victory, Rick Santorum has hung in against an onslaught of negative ads and a few gaffes of his own doing. If Santorum loses by a close margin, many will question Romney’s ability to close the ultimate deal after a less-than-stellar showing in the Wolverine State.

Of course, many of those saying that will be Santorum, Gingrich and Paul.

Here’s the press release from We Ask America:

Michigan: Dead Heat

The State of Michigan has displayed its fair share of mojo lately. From Clint Eastwood’s breathy Super Bowl ad proclaiming the U.S. auto industry as the economic beacon of hope, to the Detroit Red Wings 20+ home winning streak, Michigan appears to be collectively looking ahead–not back.

Perhaps it’s the Wolverine State’s new-found moxy that is shaking up its Republican Primary and giving Rick Santorum a boost. Just two weeks ago some considered Michigan as a forgone conclusion for Mitt Romney thanks to his father’s legacy as governor, but many pollsters are showing Santorum with a decent lead. However, some analysts have been cautioning that Romney should not be written off, especially in light of the recent history of new frontrunners quickly melting in the bright, hot lights of media scrutiny.

Those pundits may have been right. Santorum didn’t have a great weekend–getting in a bit of hot water by using the term “phony theology” in reference to President Obama’s agenda. That may be red meat for some, but the statement teed up the ball for the press and Santorum had to tap dance as they shot at his feet. That gaffe allowed Romney’s troops to howl about Santorum being too conservative to win (while, of course, saying that their guy is the TRUE conservative in the race).

So what’s that mean for next week’s election? Last night, we asked 1,025 likely GOP voters in Michigan for their choice in next week’s primary. Beyond the usual range of demographics, we asked them one main question:

“If the Republican Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?”

Here are the results:

Whether or not Santorum can regain his own mojo down the stretch after his weekend of faux pas will be measured when we revisit Michigan next Sunday.

He came in second for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in both 2002 and 2004. His second place finish in 2004 to Jack Ryan was not rewarded with a spot on the ballot when Ryan dropped out.

Instead, the GOP State Central Committee imported Alan Keyes recruited from my home state of Maryland. Keyes lost to Barack Obama.

In 2006, Oberweis ran for Governor, running second and losing to Judy Baar Topinka, who lost to Rod Blagojevich.

When Dennis Hastert decided to step down from Congress after he lost the Speakership when the Democrats took control under Nancy Pelosi, Oberweis won the primary election over Chris Lauzen and Ethan Hastert to fill the short-term vacancy and the full term. He lost to Bill Foster.

Now, having been elected State Central Committeeman by party officials, Oberweis is running for the State Senate.

This time he may win.

The massive television advertising for his campaigns and his dairy have given him a high name identification.

In the We Ask America poll last week, he was leading his two opponents about three to one.

Illinois Democrats put 19-year State Senator Dave Syverson of Rockford and newly-appointed Christine Johnson of DeKalb County into the same district.

Syverson has appeared on Rockford television and radio for almost two decades.

He has a fifty-point margin in his home area, while Johnson has a 5-point margin in hers.

The result is that he dominates the race in the state rep. district where he lives, while Johnson has a five-point advantage in her half of the district.

In that Lake County State Senate District where the incumbent seemed to try to throw around her weight during a domestic dispute, there’s a Republican primary contest between former WKRS Radio talk show host and County Board member Larry Leafblad and Round Lake Tea Party leader Lennie Jarrett, plus Joe Neal, the son of a former GOP State Central Committee member and Michael White, who isn’t on my radar screen.

We Ask America polled the district this week and the long-time public persona of Leafblad puts him in the lead.

Big time.

Leafblad has 19%, while the three opponents are the 4% to 5% level.

The good news for the challengers is that fully two-thirds of those who have voted at least twice in the last three Republican primary elections are still undecided.

A December 30th  press release from We Ask America:

Consensus: Romney

Our last presidential tracking poll in Iowa mirrors what most others are showing in their polling: Mitt Romney may be finally breaking through the clutter. And while Romney’s detractors will undoubtedly snort in derision about his lackluster numbers in the head-to-head category, it gets more interesting when we asked them: “No matter who you support, which candidate do you think will ultimately be the GOP candidate for president?”

First , here are the top-line results from our December 29, 2011 poll of 889 Iowa Republicans who confirmed they plan to participate in a caucus. The first column is the normal head-to-head results, while the second column shows who the poll participants think will ultimately prevail:

While many in the media seem to be focusing on the move up the food chain by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum and the falling numbers for the last flavor-of-the-day Ron Paul, Romney seems finally to be breaking through as Iowa Republicans get closer to Caucus Day. Perhaps more important is the fact that 39 percent of all poll participants believe that Romney will ultimately be the flag carrier for the GOP in the fall.

Let’s see how each candidate’s supporters responded to the “who will ultimately win” question in the crosstab below. (It can be a little confusing reading this…here’s an example: reading left to right, the first row indicates that 51% of the people who say they will support Michelle Bachmann in a caucus believe that she will indeed be the ultimate winner, while 5 percent of those will vote for her believe that Newt Gingrich will ultimately win, and 2 percent think Huntsman will win…and so on.) Here’s the table:

Of course, the madcap Iowa caucus system offers lots of chances for rapid ascent and descent–and bad weather can improve the prospects of those candidates with good corn-fed organizations…like Ron Paul. Plus, time will certainly tell whether the newly found popularity of Santorum will be lasting or not.

But maybe–just maybe–Mitt Romney will finally begin to fulfill the destiny so many others have predicted for him.

———-

Remember that rounding each entry to the nearest whole number leads to some columns or rows not adding up exactly to 100%.

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

That’s pretty much what the We Ask America polling folks ask as they release results from last night’s phone calls to Iowa residents.

Here’s the press release:

Down the Newt Chute

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 06:59 AM PST

It’s becoming all too predictable.

As soon as a GOP presidential candidate gains traction in Iowa, the bright lights hit him/her and they melt down like a cheap candle.

The latest to follow the pattern is, of course, Newt Gingrich.

Just 15 days ago, we measured Newt with a robust 30 percent. But everyone—including the merry elves at We Ask America—warned that Gingrich could soon travail down the Newt Chute due to the cyclical habits exhibited by GOP frontrunners and the former Speaker’s penchant for provocative barbs.

Sure enough, Gingrich appears to be fading badly, but those who have dumped him seem to have spread their new affections more evenly than others have reported.
While Ron Paul has picked up a bit more of Newt’s castoffs,  the field is starting to look like a real horse race. Here’s our latest numbers from last night and a tracking comparison of the last five polls we conducted in the Hawkeye State:

The results for Ron Paul in last night’s poll may actually be a couple of points better than it shows here among the general electorate due to his strength in the 35-44 & 45-54 age brackets, but the Iowa caucuses skew older so we’re not ready to grant him the Clear Leader Status yet. However, Paul reportedly is the only candidate who has the ground troops to put a live body in each of the 1,700+ Iowa precincts…an impressive feat to say the least. In addition, Congressman Paul has been among the most consistent performers in Iowa and elsewhere. Combine those facts with the quirkiness of Iowa caucus system and it’s impossible to not put him at the top of the heap for now.

But perhaps Paul would be better off NOT being looked at as the Big Kahuna given the fate of the last few players who occupied the top of the leader board. Like the Greek legend of Icarus, every Republican who flies too close to the sun in an attempt to escape the surly bonds of the pack ends up melting his/her wings in the blazing heat of the sun.

With President Barack Obama reportedly regaining some lost ground, can the Republicans finally find someone who can take the heat?

The only firm that bothered to survey the 8th Congressional District race between Melissa Bean, Joe Walsh and Bill Scheurer (and predicted that Walsh could win) has polled Iowa again.

We Ask America’s poll results and press release follow:

Tracking Iowa

Posted: 29 Nov 2011 06:47 AM PST

Our last Iowa test came just after Herman Cain‘s past problems surfaced, but before many details or additional accusers were exposed. Since then, most of the other Republican candidates have plodded through the Hawkeyes’ cornfields and watched as Newt Gingrich quietly ascended back up the slippery rungs of the nation’s political ladder.

Those who predicted Gingrich’s demise months ago have had to eat a bit of crow lately as the former House Speaker maintained a long self-induced binge of measured presence. While few question Gingrich’s keen intellect, even fewer believed he could control his penchant for occasional outbursts that pin the needle on the Bizarro-meter. Sure enough, those waiting for him to pop off yet another verbal grenade jumped ugly on his “get a bath, then get a job” quote concerning the Occupy Wall Street movement. But that throw-away line threw a little red meat into the corner of the True Believers who were already starting to rally behind their newly awakened hero.

Gingrich followed his snarky comment against the Occupy Movement with statements about immigration that infuriated some of his staunchest supporters–especially since he poked many in his own party in the eye by saying:

“I don’t see how the party that says it’s the party of the family is going to adopt an immigration policy which destroys families that have been here a quarter century.”

His so-called soft-on-immigration views set up a blur of Tweets, texts, blogs and moans. A top staffer for Iowa’s Republican Governor Terry Branstad tweeted that Gingrich “did himself significant harm tonight on immigration among caucus and primary voters,” and his opponents tried to pile on. But as the press (and some supporters) pointed out, Newt’s stance on immigration–while evolving–has a consistency of theme and thought. And many of those who disagree with him on that issue gave him a pass for both his forthrightness and reasoned approach. The presidential primary’s perennial bridesmaid, Mitt Romney, tried to get some traction on the issue, but had to answer questions about his own flip-floppish background on the issue. Still, Romney’s assertion that Gingrich’s position on amnesty would serve as a magnet for illegal immigration was oft quoted and paraphrased by many and undoubtedly serves to provide spice to a fairly mundane political debate horizon.

Whether Gingrich to can survive the ongoing Whack-a-Mole game being played in the Republican primary is anyone’s guess. But as the following results show, he’s surging for now:

Although we suspect these results represent more of a spike than a lasting spread, there is no doubt that Gingrich has a strong lead in Iowa for now. However, Newt needs to look no further that Herman Cain’s numbers in this poll to see how quickly the earth can shift in politics.

Our belief that these results may represent a flick in the measurement gauge will be tested when we go back into Iowa in a week or so. In the meantime, we’ll see how well Gingrich endures as the pin cushion du jour.

The only polling firm that called Joe Walsh’s 2010 fall victory over Melissa Bean was We Ask America. (As far as I know, it was the only firm who polled unless Melissa Bean commissioned one and, if so, it never made the light of day.)

Today, a poll of presidential preferences by the same company has been released. It is below:

Iowa’s recent GOP straw poll is now behind us. Did you feel the earth move? Did you notice how it changed the entire political landscape? Did you follow every nuance and savor the savvy punditry?

Neither did we.

But the circumstances in Iowa did remind us of a clever idea a subscriber gave us: Why not ask Iowa Republicans who they would LEAST like to see nominated as president?

We couldn’t resist that one. Besides, the weird set up for the straw poll involving paying to play doesn’t exactly give us a great deal of confidence that the kernels of Iowa corn put into each candidate’s baskets were truly representative of the heartland’s GOP landscape.

Putting the list of candidates together caused a bit of a debate around here. Tim Pawlenty took himself out of it before we pulled the trigger, and Sarah Palin made the list since her bus tour started traipsing across the Midwest right before the events in the Hawkeye State. Someone suggested that Rudy Giuliani be included since he’s playing footsie with the media about running again, but our own straw poll left Rudy off the ticket. In the end, we included the following individuals in our list:

• Michele Bachmann
• Herman Cain
• Newt Gingrich
• Jon Huntsman
• Sarah Palin
• Ron Paul
• Rick Perry
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum

While we were at it, we asked the general electorate how they felt about the job President Obama is doing and a question concerning the likelihood of voting for him. Those who told us they consider themselves Republicans were then asked who they would MOST like to have as their nominee … followed by the piece de resistance: who they’d LEAST like to have nominated. Click IOWA POLL OUTLINE to see the poll script.

Here are the results: (if you want to download more details including some crosstabs, here they are: Iowa 081611.

GOP ONLY
WHO THEY DON’T WANT
Michele Bachmann	12%
Herman Cain	8%
Newt Gingrich	16%
Jon Huntsman	14%
Sarah Palin	25%
Ron Paul	12%
Rick Perry	3%
Mitt Romney	7%
Rick Santorum	3%
WHO THEY DO WANT
Michele Bachmann	17%
Herman Cain	5%
Newt Gingrich	5%
Jon Huntsman	1%
Sarah Palin	7%
Ron Paul	8%
Rick Perry	29%
Mitt Romney	15%
Rick Santorum	4%
Other	9%
ALL VOTERS
OBAMA APPROVAL
Approval	47%
Disapproval	49%
Neutral/Uncertain	4%
OBAMA RE-ELECT
Agree	39%
Disagree	54%
Uncertain	7%
DEMOGRAPHICS
PARTY I.D.
Republican	29%
Democrat	35%
Independent	36%
GENDER/
Female	59%
Male	41%

All results have been weighted to normalize against  gender over/undersampling.

The eye opener to us was President Obama’s approval and re-elect numbers (click the link above for look at more detailed results ). Like we’ve seen in other Midwestern states, a higher-than-expected percentage of self-proclaimed Democrats disapprove of his job performance. But the real surprise was the 20% who said they won’t automatically vote to re-elect him until they know who he’s running against. To be fair, the re-elect question is asked in a vacuum–no opponent was specified, so these number cannot be viewed as a hardcore sign of impending demise. However, Independents’ responses are even more troubling to the president–a 60% hit on the negative end of the re-elect question clearly indicates their willingness to be wooed by another candidate.

Iowa may have been a big boost for Barack Obama four years ago…but for now, the corn-fed natives of Iowa might be developing a wandering eye.

Newspaper coverage of Congressman Joe Walsh’s child support payment problems diminished over the weekend.

I could find only two mentions in Chicago’s daily newspapers.

Walsh was ridiculed in the Chicago Tribune on Saturday.  That’s probably the edition that is least read during the week.

The Tribune, of course, did not endorse Walsh and, at best, is Establishment Republican.

Thinking back on the endorsements I received in 16 state rep. elections, I can’t remember one I got when it could have made any difference.

Here’s a taste from the editorial, a suggestion for “an excellent slogan” for Walsh’s next election:

“Joe Walsh: He hates spending his own money, and he hates spending yours.“

A Sunday Chicago Sun-Times editorial page contribution also talks about the 2012 election.

Carol Marin, never a friend to conservatives, nevertheless seems to want to provide some “you know what, Walsh might win in 2012, even though he’s been trashed in the media” text she can point to just in case Walsh pulls off what will now be considered another stunning upset upset.

She reprints the front page of Thursday’s Sun-Times (just in case any Sunday readers missed it on Thursday, I guess).

Then she points to the first two words in the headline: “TEA PARTY.”

And, she starts her column,

“Don’t underestimate Joe Walsh.“

Considering the way all but the We Ask America polling firm dismissed Walsh’s possibility of beating Melissa Bean, a Marin favorite, I’d say the senior female opinion-maker in the Chicago area is hedging her bet this time.

Huffington Post reported Saturday that MSNBC’s Laurence O’Donnell has banned Walsh from his program until he pays his back child support.

Northwest Herald Executive Editor Chris Krug thinks pretty much everyone has watched the video above in which Joe Walsh goes toe-to-toe with Chris Matthews.

Krug also weighed in his Sunday.  column.  In view of his being part of the decision-making group that decided to endorse Melissa Bean last year, I find this comment of particular interest:

“So what I am now thinking is that, regardless of what he has done, does, says or might say, there may be room in Washington for Walsh for years to come.”

Are Krug and Marin laying the groundwork to explain a Walsh 2012 victory, however unlikely they think that possibility is?