McHenry County Blog

This note was by Steve Willson sent to the McHenry County Republican Party email address a month and a half ago:

I received a letter today from Jim Thompson thanking me for my letter to the editor concerning the Crystal Lake library expansion, and inviting me to visit the local party headquarters. I may stop by sometime, but for now I’d like to lay a couple more ideas on you.

I have 30+ years of experience as a financial analyst, primarily in the municipal bond business.

This means I know how to tear apart the budget or a capital proposal for a school district or a city.

I would be pleased to assist the local GOP in this capacity and show others there how to do the same. (It’s not really that complicated.)

With this kind of research, the GOP can distinguish itself at the local level,

• showing concretely how it is serving the taxpayers, and
• giving teams of office seekers powerful information on important issues.

Let’s consider two examples,

• the [Crystal Lake] library and
• MCC

Crystal Lake Library

In two weeks (from early May), the Northwest Herald will print a second letter that I wrote which shows the results of a little survey I conducted of library users.It took, quite literally, less than two hours.

But it shows conclusively that the “crowding” issue is nonexistent.

Specifically, 74% of patrons NEVER have a problem finding a parking space, and on average, patrons have problems finding a parking space only 1.5% of the time.

Further, 80% of patrons surveyed NEVER feel “crowded” at the library, and, on average, patrons feel “crowded” 4.3% of the time (mainly Moms during story hour).

It gets worse.

Last year the library budget was $4.4 million and they circulated 1.1 million items, about half of which were Hollywood movies.

In other words, the library spends $4.00 of taxpayer money to circulate a movie that Redbox circulates — at a profit — for $1.00! Look at it another way.

The library spends more than $1.5 million per year circulating movies, just movies.

An annual subscription to Netflix costs less than $100.

With 14,500 families in Crystal Lake, if the library got out of the movie business and bought every single family in Crystal Lake a subscription to Netflix, the would STILL be money ahead!

Am I suggesting the library get totally out of the business of lending movies?

No. (Although, frankly I am old fashioned enough to think that governments should only supply necessary services that the free market can’t provide, like roads and police. Why libraries have become taxpayer subsidized competitors for Blockbuster is beyond me.)

I would suggest, though, that these kind of numbers imply STRONGLY that no one is minding the store, that no one looks carefully at the budget and asks if the library is an efficient steward of the public’s money.

MCC 40-Year Plan

But MCC makes the library look like a bunch of pikers.

$280 million! For what?

3% annual growth?

Let’s be clear: Wight & Co. DID NOT come up with the 3% per year growth projection.

They were given that number by the college and told to build a plan based on that projection.

How likely is 3% growth.

Well, every single school district in McHenry County is now experiencing reductions in enrollment.

Even District 158 (Huntley) has seen reductions at the kindergarten level.

They expect their high school enrollment to increase by about 500 more students in the next several years and then begin to decline.

MCC itself saw enrollment decline 4% last fall.

But how can we be sure this will continue?

Because we can see ten years into the future.

That is, we know how many high school seniors there are in McHenry County and how many third graders there are.

Today’s third graders are MCC’s freshmen ten years from now.

And today there are 20% FEWER THIRD GRADERS THAN HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS!

So MCC is going to see their enrollment decline, not increase.

But it’s worse than that. If you put together a very simple Excel spreadsheet and trend out MCC’s projected enrollment at 3% per year, figure out how many new students that means they must capture each year as existing students quit or graduate, and trend out the number of high school seniors, you will see that the “capture” rate of high school seniors increases from 33% today to 50% in 2021, 75% in 2031, 101% in 2041 and 136% in 2051.

In other words, if you believe MCC’s 40 year projection, they will need to get every single high school senior to

1. foreswear a four year college,
2. foreswear work,
3. enroll full-time at MCC, and
4. bring along a friend from outside the County!

In short, there simply aren’t enough high school seniors to meet MCC’s projection.

The college wasted $156,000 of taxpayer money on a study based on a growth rate that is ludicrous on the face of it.

Except that no one asks the simple, common sense questions. No one on the board and no one in the public domain: no reporters, no members of the GOP.

But the GOP CAN ask these questions.

The questions really are simple common sense.

I figured all this out in less than two hours from credible online sources (The Interactive Illinois Report Card and MCC’s own site).

I can quickly teach others how to do this, thus leveraging my abilities and providing the local GOP with another issue where they can get out front,

• showing leadership in protecting taxpayers, and
• putting together a team of candidates for the next election based on this type of issue-oriented campaign.

If you’re interested, write back.

McHenry County College Facilty Master Plan Information provided by the college after the presentation:

Facility Master Plan Information – April 26, 2012

 

Rationale: Why MCC Should Pursue a Master Plan

• The development and planning for facilities now offers an opportunity to look to the future and acquire land in order to avoid examples of other community colleges that are currently land-locked.
• What comes first – space or excess demand? The surrounding community needs (and desires) a college that is change ready. MCC goals include the ability to implement programs—often as fast as six weeks—in order to support community members and businesses in training those who desire a career but many not require a full, four-year program, as well as continuing education or re-training needs. If the College waits for the demand, it will take too long to build the space needed, and student may likely enroll elsewhere. MCC needs to build the space first in order to be able to respond to community immediately.
• A master planning process organizes and plans out ways to ensure adequate space is in place to meet community needs and guarantee student success.
• This planning offers an opportunity to implement sustainable and long-term, energy-saving strategies in replacement of an aging infrastructure.

Projected Student Growth

• Based on MCC enrollment history, nationwide trends for a greater portion of the population enrolling in community colleges rather than traditional four-year universities and increased focus on career-training/adult-re-training, an average 3% annual rate of growth, expressed in full-time-equivalent (FTE) student enrollment, will be used for our projections.
• FTE is used by the Illinois Community College Board (ICCB) and is based on credit hours combined for all students, expressing the equivalent head count as if all students were full time.
• The following numbers reflect this projection, taking the 3% annual enrollment increase into account:
  • Current (2012): 4,100 FTE
  • 10 Years: 5,500 FTE
  • 20 Years: 7,400 FTE
  • 40 Years: 13,400 FTE

Projected Space Needs

• The current main campus facilities are undersized in comparison to peer community colleges (College of DuPage, College of Lake County, Elgin Community College, Harper College, Waubonsee Community College).
• Peer community colleges range from 85-169 gross square foot (GSF) per student (this range also includes Moraine Valley Community College).
• Currently, MCC has 97 GSF per student. After removing the peer community colleges with the highest and lowest GSF, MCC should be at 120-125 GSF per student today.
• A square footage reduction factor of 86.6% was used to lower the projected on-campus built space to accommodate for more on-line courses and programs taught off campus.
• MCC currently has a total of 398,000 GSF. This means that the College is currently short approximately 100,000 GSF, needing a total of 492,000 GSF right now. Here is what the minimum GSF needed will be in future years:
  • 10 Years: 574,000 GSF
  • 20 Years: 773,000 GSF
  • 40 Years: 1,399,000 GSF
• This is the minimum need, and MCC will need additional space to accommodate larger spaces that do not currently exist, such as auditoriums, theatres and larger, multi-purpose flexible space.

Projected Parking Needs

• MCC parking currently has 2,150 spaces. Based on student and space projections outlined above, here is how parking will be impacted in the future:
  • Need in 10 Years: 2,900 spaces
  • Need in 20 Years: 3,800 spaces
  • Need in 40 Years: 7,000 spaces
• Transportation options and needs may change in the future; one possibility is un-manned shuttles that would take people from remote parking lots/transportation to campus buildings.
• Parking garages are shown on the plan as an option to all surface lot parking.

Recommendations to Date

• Based on MCC Educational Master Plan and feedback from employee and trustee interviews, the College needs to blend enrollment-based space needs with program improvement/initiative needs.

• From extensive review of facilities and discussions with employees and students, space needs have been demonstrated in the following areas: Student Support Services; Health Careers, Math and Sciences; Technology and Career centers; multi-use classrooms for both academics and community events; Public Safety instruction; Fine Arts workspace; and multi-use large spaces.
• The recommended concept will provide visibility and transparency to the community by facing U.S. Highway 14.
• Maintain impervious land coverage to green space ratio under 50%. (Master Plan is at 40-42%).
• Students/employees/visitors should be able to walk anywhere on the main campus property within 10-20 minutes (this timeframe is in the same range for many high schools).

Budget Planning Information

• 10 yr -$278.5 M in 2013 dollars – land acquisition and owner soft costs not included
• 20 yr -$199.3 M in 2013 dollars – land acquisition and owner soft costs not included
• 40 yr -$162.1 M in 2013 dollars – land acquisition and owner soft costs not included

Contact Information

Wight & Company

Leanne Meyer-Smith, AIA, LEED AP BD +C

Senior Project Manager and Licensed Architect

(630) 969-7000
lmeyersmith@wightco.com

An open letter from Lakewood’s Stephen Willson:

An Open Letter to the MCC Board and the Community

Any substantial government capital project needs to pass a two-part, sequential test.

The first part of the test is,

“Has a need been established?”

If and only if the answer to this question is “Yes” should the second question be asked:

“Of all the alternatives, what is the most cost effective way to meet this need?”

MCC hired Wight & Co. to develop capital plans for a $280 million expansion.

The need for this expansion – the first part of the test above – was the projection that enrollment at MCC would grow 3% per year for the next forty years. Before tax dollars were spent to hire Wight & Co., what kind of study was undertaken to justify this 3% growth projection?

The answer is:

none

I submitted a Freedom of Information Act request to the college asking them for

“all documentation related to the 3% per year enrollment growth projection that underlies the plans drawn up by Wight & Co.”

For a project of this magnitude, I was expecting to receive a formal demographic study that would have included

• analysis of college enrollment trends, including any special factors that might have led to a one-time jump in enrollment, detail of the age distribution of the student body,
• an examination of population trends in McHenry County,
• population projections for the nation, the state and the county by agencies such as the Census Bureau, and, if most of my students were younger people,
• an examination of the trends in enrollment at area schools, including discussions with area school superintendents.

I did not receive such a document.

I received exactly three pages.

The first page is a six line statement from Wight & Co. stating the MCC Master Plan Steering Committee – NOT Wight & Co. – used “page 3 of the 2011 McHenry County Labor Report” and the enrollment statistics to project enrollment growth.

The second page is MCC’s enrollment history over the last ten years.

The third page is page 3 of the 2011 McHenry County Labor Report – which makes NO projections.

In short, no study was done to justify the projection that enrollment is so likely to grow by 3% per year for each of the next 40 years that a $280 million capital expansion is justified.

The numbers were pulled out of the air.

The college spent hundreds of thousands of dollars asking Wight & Co. for a plan it didn’t need, and then asks the taxpayers for $280 million more without doing its homework.

If the college were a student of mine in a statistics class, I’d give them an “F”.

Still, despite the lack of work by the College, it is possible that the College’s projection is accurate, so I asked myself, “What might the College have found if it had done its homework?”

The first question I asked myself was, “Has McHenry County’s population been growing 3% per year?”

To answer this question, I visited the Census Bureau’s web site and learned that the annual growth in population in McHenry County from 2000 to 2010 was 1.7%, NOT 3%!

Then I said to myself,

“Well, perhaps overall the population hasn’t grown at the rate MCC projects, but young people are MCC’s primary demographic.

“Has the number of young people been growing 3% per year in the last ten years?”

While the Census Bureau does not provide that level of detail by County, it does by state.

The number of young people 18 and under in Illinois FELL by 3.6% between 2000 and 2010.

Not conclusive, but it is highly unlikely that McHenry County so completely bucked the state trend, especially when overall population growth was only 1.7% per year in McHenry County.

Since the Census Bureau has not yet provided detailed age distribution data by County for 2010, I download historical enrollment data for all of the elementary and high schools in the entire county, which took me about 30 minutes.

What does this data show?

It shows that EVERY SINGLE SCHOOL DISTRICT IN THE COUNTY HAS DECLINING ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT.

In fact, the number of 3rd graders – MCC’s freshmen in ten years – has fallen by 14% from the peak and today is 20% smaller than the number of high school seniors. So we know for a fact that the pool of potential students for MCC will be smaller in ten years than it is now.

Then I said to myself, “Does the Census Bureau project that population growth will increase or decrease?”

The answer is that the Census Bureau projects that here in Illinois the number of 18 to 24 year olds – MCC’s prime demographic – will DECREASE by 6.7% between 2010 and 2020 and decrease 3.3% over the next twenty years.

A 3% per year growth rate would imply an increase of 34% and 80%, respectively, over the next ten and twenty years.

Those are big differences!

I found it hard to believe that McHenry County might buck this trend, so I actually called the Superintendents of Districts 155 and 158, the largest districts in the County, to ask them what they were projecting.

Dr. Hawk of District 155 said they had a demographic study completed just a few months ago, and that the conclusion was that enrollment had plateaued and would decline over the next fifteen years.

I asked her if anyone from MCC had contacted her for information and she said no.

Dr. Burkey of District 158 said they expect high school enrollment to increase by about 500 over the next several years and
then to begin to decline because their elementary enrollment has already started to decline.

He also confirmed that no one from MCC had contacted him for information.

So, we have definitive data showing that the pool of potential students at MCC is highly likely to decrease, not increase, over the next ten to twenty years.

Has MCC itself bucked this trend?

The answer is no, MCC has come nowhere near 3% enrollment growth in the last several years.

In the last seven years, enrollment actually decreased in two years; in only two years did the increase exceed 3%.

In 2010, spring enrollment increased 27%, a one-time jump not likely to be repeated due to the introduction of the Promise Program.

In fact, according to a press release from MCC itself, enrollment actually declined by 4% in the most recent Fall semester versus the same semester in 2010.

Enrollment in Spring 2012 is 5.2% lower than in Spring 2011.

So MCC’s enrollment history does not support the projected enrollment growth, either.

Finally, let’s perform one simple test of reasonableness for the 3% growth projection.

The number of new students currently attending MCC about 33% of the number of high school seniors.

That doesn’t mean one-third of all high school seniors go to MCC because some new students will be older.

But it’s still a good benchmark; over time, there should be a strong correlation between the number of high school seniors and the number of new students at MCC.

If you combine what we know is happening to school enrollment in McHenry County with the 3% growth rate, and in ten years new enrollment would equal 50% of all high school seniors. In twenty years, 75%. In 30 years, 101%. In forty years, 125%.

In short,

IF EVERY SINGLE HIGH SCHOOL SENIOR FORESWORE FOUR YEAR COLLEGE AND WORK AND WENT TO MCC FULL-TIME, THERE STILL WOULDN’T BE ENOUGH NEW STUDENTS TO MEET MCC’S PROJECTION.

In short and in conclusion, MCC’s growth projection is not only unsupported and contradicted by all the facts, it is, ultimately, ludicrous because it projects more enrollment growth than even the number of potential students.

It would be the only business in the Universe with more than a 100% market share.

I repeat what I said at the beginning. Any substantial government capital project needs to pass a two-part, sequential test, the first part of which is, “Has a need been established?”

The answer in this case is definitively, “No.”

In fact, the College did so little work and such sloppy work that as a professional researcher for 30+ years, if any employee of mine came to me with this justification for a $280 million capital plan, I would fire them.

This is not a statement I make happily or lightly, nor is it an exaggeration.

The work that preceded hiring Wight & Co. was not merely minimal, it was ludicrous on its face if any common sense had been applied.