In my Fantasy Baseball article in late February, re-printed Tuesday, McHenry County Blog examined McHenry County College’s Economics Research Associates’ second feasibility study on its baseball stadium.
First attendance projections were analyzed and found to be woefully inadequate.
A college professor would label that section “INCOMPLETE.”
Secondly, the ERA naming rights analysis was examined.
Despite the reported fact that the team in Schaumburg gets $200,000 a year from Alexian Brothers, a hospital group, the consultants think the junior college could get $250,000 a year.
Today, let’s look at non-baseball events at the stadium.
Concerts, amateur baseball games, etc.
Here’s the developer’s project on non-baseball events:
”The developer has projected net revenues of $275,000 per year from non-baseball events (such as concerts, other sporting events, civic events, and others). This line item is considered separately from other team and ballpark items, as it would not contribute to rent or ticket surcharge payments. The only details provided to support this forecast is an assumption of 50 to 60 events with a total of 25,000 to 35,000 attendees.”
Isn’t that special?
Economics Research Associates brags that it did work on all of Disney’s parks.
Somehow I doubt such non-fact based analysis would have been found acceptable by Disney, even in Fantasia mode.
In the first year stadium revenue is listed as $732,837.
The non-baseball share is $275,000.
That’s a big chunk of the $733,000 to accept on faith.
“According to conversations with the developer, this estimate is based on a generic operating model for a Frontier League ballpark that has been supplied by the league office, and could likely be aggressive.”
Talk about understatement.
No specifics provided.
No specifics requested.
Perhaps Economic Research Associates does not deserve the reputation it projects.
“The eventual amount of non-baseball revenue will be largely dependent on the type and number of the events that are allowed to be held. Events such as concerts would have the ability to generate more revenue, but if only civic events such as high school baseball games can be held at the stadium, these revenues would be significantly lower.
“Without performing a market analysis or having a completed agreement on the number and type of allowable events, it is not possible to analyze this projection in further detail.”
Consider also that a week ago Hoffman Estates has just announced an outdoor concert venue where Poplar Creek used to be, right on the tollway.
This announcement appeared in the Chicago Tribune before ERA’s February 26, 2008, feasibility study submission date.
Sounds like it might draw McHenry County residents and be relevant to any market analysis on non-baseball team use of the new baseball stadium.
Oh.
I forgot, ERA did no market analysis.