The Daily Herald editorial on Thursday doesn’t sound accurate.

• That said, property taxpayers in Cook County and the rest of the suburbs should be looking at smaller tax bills next year.
• The thing is, if property values are down 10 percent, those tax extenders won’t be able to give school districts, park districts, townships, libraries, mosquito abatement districts and the rest all they’re asking for.

The editorial goes on to suggest there will be tax rate hike referendums in the offing.

The editorial assumes that as real estate values decrease that real estate taxes will go down.

“Not next year” is my prediction.

Assessments are supposed to be one-third of a three-year running average.

It does sound logical that if one’s assessment goes down that one’s tax bill would decrease.

But, tax bills are the function of multiplying a tax rate times the assessment.

If the tax rate stayed constant, the Daily Herald editorial writers would be correct.

However, the rate can be raised without a referendum.

How can that be?

The tax cap has been in effect since the early 1990’s.

Each year until very recently real estate values have increased more than the cost of living.

Because the tax cap limits the increase in what I would call “tax take” to what was gotten last year, plus the increase in the cost of living (plus new growth), tax rates for all but home rule units have been ratcheted down.

They are well below their statutory or referendum authorized maximums.

That means, if tax districts request what they got last year, plus the increase in the CPI (4.1% for the coming year’s tax bills), county clerks will look at the assessment base to figure out that last year’s rate will raise the amount legally requested.

Then, the county clerk will look at the maximum rates of each district. If last year’s rate was lower than its maximum, up the rate will go as high as necessary so that the amount allowed the tax district by law will be billed.

In McHenry County the assessment base is not down.

It’s up, so expect a higher bill.

It is possible that some districts may butt up against their maximums in some counties, but I frankly doubt it will happen for next year’s tax cycle.

So, in McHenry County homeowners and businesses can expect tax increases next year and future years the same as they have been getting since the tax cap went into effect.

If there is an extended and continuing multi-year downturn in property values, some year the Daily Herald editorial will be correct.

But, not next year. Not the year after.