A telephone poll overweighted to women who are more partial to 8th District incumbent Congresswoman than to challenging Republican Joe Walsh which showed both at 41% is my guess as to why New York Times prognosticator Nate Silver has lower the odds of Bean’s winning from 96.5% on September 12th to 81% yesterday.
Odds on a Bean victory have dropped from 97.5% to 81%.
Until the We Ask America survey was taken, there had been no outside poll taken of Illinois’ 8th Congressional District.
When Silver is on the NY Times payroll, he is being paid for plenty of wishful thinking to make what is about to happen not look so bad for the Dems.
Joe Walsh is currently ahead and Bean will likely resort to personal smears in an effort to try to catch up.
A majority of people are fed up with Bean’s wastful spending and votes for higher energy taxes. Bean’s cap and trade taxes and her Obamacare are the opposite of the hope and change they voted for.
Bean showed herself to be a public relations scam artist campaigning for one thing and voting just the opposite. Typical liberal Dem.
Can you advice your source that shows Walsh ahead. The Quincy poll had them tied. All the mainstream polls (RCP, Rasmussen, etc) has shown the race Likely or Safe Dem. I’d like to have the facts to back me up before I go tell others about the shift in polls.
Thanks.
GW: You have to look at the skewed sampling favoring Bean.
Do you really think 56 percent of the voters will be females?
If you make adjustments for what honest polls show will be the turnout in November, then it becomes apparent that Walsh is ahead.
Rasmusssen doesn’t do Congressional race polls, so it becomes also apparent you, GW, are a pro Bean propagandaist.