New York Times Gives Melissa Bean 89.9% Victory Odds

Who to believe?

The WeAskAmerica poll of yesterday?

Or New York Times 538 prognosticator Nate Silver?

The sharp drop in the right-hand trend line was when We Ask American released its poll showing Joe Walsh and Melissa Bean tied at 42% to 42%.

Or, we could wait until tomorrow and see how people vote.


New York Times Gives Melissa Bean 89.9% Victory Odds — 3 Comments

  1. It’s interesting how the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts percentage difference continues to grow in Beans favor even as the recent WAA poll shows Walsh is ahead.

    I can’t wait for tomorrow nights results!

  2. Because NOBODY believes the We Ask America poll to be a credible poll. Except the 50 “twittiots” that retweet everything Joe Walsh says!

    But, Cal has been predicting a landslide defeat of Bean since January of 2005. So what do the pundits know?!

  3. Perhaps you can find an election prediction I made on this blog, but I can’t.

    And perhaps you can find another poll taken in the 8th Congressional District, but I can’t.

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