Jack Franks’ Nesting and Other Thoughts about His Future

These authentic Russian "Red Babushka" wooden nesting dolls were found on the Bradford Exchange web site.

Largely unnoticed in Illinois Democrats’ remapping of McHenry County’s legislative districts is what state representatives go with which state senator.

As the situation exist now, State Reps. Mike Tryon and and Jack Franks have Pam Althoff as their state senator.

Not after the 2012 elections.

Franks has eliminated Tryon as a possible competitor should he decide to run for the State Senate.

Under the reapportionment map Franks will be “nested” with Althoff and Tryon with a state senator to be named in 2012.

Franks would not run against Althoff.

One reason.

Franks would probably lose.

Althoff beat Democrat Patrick Ouimet’s heavily-financed campaign.

Ouimet spent $992,002.52 in his 2004 campaign.

Appointed incumbent Althoff came up with $638,344.03.  The GOP were not about to lose her seat, if it could be helped.

Franks now has about $467,000 in the bank, minus July’s expenses.

He is as well known, if not better known than Althoff, an advantage that Ouimet did not have in 2004, but Franks is a guy.

My analysis of elections in this area going back to 1966 have convinced me that men have about a five percentage point disadvantage when running against a woman.

Jack Franks pondering the new map at the Marengo High School hearing he stimulated.

Had Tom Salvi been a woman when he almost beat Franks in 2000, I am convinced that Franks would not have won re-election.  Salvi lost 51.54% to 48.37%, less than five percentage points.

So, in a Republican state senate district, would voters be more likely to vote for the female incumbent Republican or the Democrat running away from his party label as fast as he can?

No question in my mind.  Althoff would win.

But, what if Althoff decided to retire sometime in the next decade?

There is at least one Republican supporter of Franks who would like to run for Franks’ state rep. seat.

Would this Franks’ contributor support the Democrat for state senate against a GOP candidate?

Could a quid pro quo be that Franks make sure no Democrat ran against him in the fall election?

Gumming up the works of this scenario would be the emergence of a strong female state representative to replace Tryon.

Barb Wheeler might be that woman. She is running for the empty seat and has a Crystal Lake fund raiser Friday night.

She, as Althoff, would not be abandoned by Senate Republicans. They would not be willing to forfeit the seat to a union Democrat like Franks.

Some might be thinking that Franks will run for Congress next year.

More on that tomorrow.


Comments

Jack Franks’ Nesting and Other Thoughts about His Future — 1 Comment

  1. Really you think Althoff would beat Franks? I wish they were running against one another and you had a boatload of cash to wager.

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