I’ve written a couple of times about how ballot order can affect election results.
My views come from a paper I read while studying for my Master’s Degree in Public Administration at the University of Michigan.
The study was of a Michigan city election. Races were compared with few and many candidates.
The results showed that with 7-8 or more candidates,
- first place on the ballot got one an extra 10%
- second and last place garnered a 5% bonus
The worst spot on a long ballot was next to last.
The longest county ballot is in the Republican primary in District 3. That’s the one that goes north from Crystal Lake Avenue in Crystal Lake to the southern part of McHenry.
Here’s the ballot order:
- * Nancy L. Gonsiorek. 3720 Buckhorn Dr.. Crystal Lake, IL 60012
- * Donald C. Kopsell. 3716 Barreville Rd, Crystal Lake, IL 60012
- * Joseph “Joe” Gottemoller, 453 Spring Ridge Drive, Crystal Lake, Illinois 60012
- Sarah Jansen, 3512 Deep Wood Drive, Crystal Lake, IL 60012
*These three filed simultaneously at 8 AM on the first day of filing.
McHenry County Board member Tina Hill visited with Crystal Lake Grade School Board member Nancy Gonsiorek at one of Barb Wheeler’s fund raisers.
With only four on the ballot, my guess is that ballot order will make little difference in the race, but, if it has some effect, District 47 Board member Gonsiorek certainly has the advantage.
It has been my experience that women also have an advantage of about 5%.