As has been told elsewhere, former Lieutenant Governor Evelyn Sanguinetti has withdrawn from the race for Congress to represent the 6th district.
Her campaign issued a statement from her around 1PM Friday afternoon. She had been running for Congress since April.
Sanguinetti’s departure impacts not only the 6th district primary, but also the 14th district and the 7 candidates who’ve declared their intentions to be on the ballot. Petitions are due December 2nd with the first day of filing on November 25.
ANALYSIS: From my vantage point here are the impacts beginning with the 6th district.
While Sanguinetti’s statement was diplomatic and appeals to unity after the primary, it only hints at the real reason Sanguinetti withdrew from the campaign — money.
As pointed out in an article originally published on September 16, the 3rd quarter fundraising which ended on September 30 with reports due to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) on Tuesday included this assessment of Sanguinetti:
“In IL-06, will Evelyn Sanguinetti make significant improvement on her $103,648 2nd quarter receipts, which many thought was a disappointment for a former statewide elected official?”McHenry County Blog orignally published September 16, 2019
According to an insider close to Sanguinetti’s campaign and as shared on Capitol Fax, Sanguinetti raised around $50,000 for the 3rd quarter, less than half of the money she reported for her disappointing 2nd quarter.
And in the face of 6th district rival Jeanne Ives reporting her 3rd quarter receipts were $340,298.13, Sanguinetti’s 5 1/2 months as a candidate (through September 30) had raised less than half what Ives raised in 75 days. Ives announced her campaign in mid July, filing her paperwork of candidacy with the FEC on July 18.
Sanguinetti knew she couldn’t compete, and after a week and a half, she made her decision public on Friday.
Please note, Ives has not yet filed her FEC 3rd quarter report. While Sanguinetti has ended her candidacy, she too must file with the FEC by Tuesday’s deadline.
While technically, the 6th district race is down to two candidates in Ives and Dr. Jay Kinzler, Ives is already being identified by many as the “presumptive” and “likely” nominee.
Understandable, since Dr. Kinzler only filed his FEC statement of candidacy on October 2, and announced his campaign kickoff this week. Kinzler had begun telling Republican groups he decided to run for Congress during the week of September 9.
While many, including Congressman Sean Casten and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) are already anticipating a Casten-Ives general election next year, Ives and her campaign will take the Kinzler candidacy seriously. And Ives will continue to raise money.
And with the major opponent now out of the race, Ives’ fundraisers can begin to tap donors who may be maxed-out for the primary at the individual limit of $2,800, but can give an additional contribution up to $2,800 for the anticipated general election against Casten.
Casten’s campaign issued the following email to donors late Friday anticipating Ives as his Republican opponent next year:
If Kinzler wants to be taken seriously, he needs to really crank up his campaign and fundraising. He will not be able to report numbers to the FEC until mid January for the 4th quarter.
His campaign introduction has begun with 2 1-minute introductory semi-professional videos. In 2016 in his unsuccessful primary challenge against Peter Roskam, Kinzler spent around $203,000, over half of that amount coming from himself.
And coupled with Kinzler’s loss in a state representative race last year, he has already earned the “perennial candidate” label.
It remains to be seen if Kinzler can mount a serious campaign against Ives in a head-to-head primary.
Tomorrow, we’ll discuss the ramifications to the 14th district race.
Links to Sanguinetti withdrawal stories:
- Capitol Fax: https://capitolfax.com/2019/10/11/sanguinetti-bows-out-of-congressional-race
- Chicago Tribune: https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-evelyn-sanguinetti-sean-casten-20191011-icwlymxvt5gijb6s5ehynvuh7u-story.html
- Daily Herald: https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20191011/sanguinetti-drops-out-of-congressional-race-for-castens-seat
- Chicago Sun-Times: https://chicago.suntimes.com/2019/10/11/20910284/sanguinetti-congress-sean-casten-election-6th-district-ives
I’m surprised by a few things.
1. The Q3 numbers where Ives was outraising Sang 6 or 7 to 1. This is despite many expert politicos saying Sang was more electable in a general election.
2. That Sang would still feel threatened by Ives despite Kinzler being in the race (who obviously takes more votes away from Ives).
Is there some possibility that Sang dropped out not because she feared Ives but because she sensed she wouldn’t be able to beat Casten?
Didn’t that district vote for Hillary Clinton, and has only gotten more blue since then?
Casten’s email is not wrong or inaccurate.
What is correct about Casten’s email?
I think he’s way out of step with the district.
What is incorrect about Casten’s email??
It’s a shame the D will have this seat for two more years but at least when Jeanne gets destroyed she will have to go away and republicans can hopefully start winning elections again.
Good riddance to Ev and Flamont.
Not going anywhere Pinto,
Gonna be here to remind everyone why Ives is a joke for the next 13 months once Casten is reelected.
Flaming FLamont, you are goin’ to hell.