“[Lauf]…will have to spend 4 to 1 to match the populist” Jack Lombardi comment 6/28/21
Update 7/15/21 3:20PM CDT: Congressman Adam Kinzinger’s numbers posted, and cash on hand now over $3 million:
California Target Book’s Rob Pyers, on Kinzinger’s and Lauf’s fundraising:
Update 7/15/21 2:15PM CDT: Catalina Lauf smashes through her goal of raising just under $87K for the 2nd Quarter, raising over $192K
As of 2PM CDT only Lauf and Lombardi had posted their FEC reports among IL-16 candidates.
Update 7/12/21: POLITICO Illinois Playbook reported this morning sources close to Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R, IL-16) said he raised $800K in the 2nd quarter, plus an additional $500K for his PAC. POLITICO also quoted former Congressman Bob Dold, with the quote above.
Given the latest unofficial versions of congressional remaps floating around show the current IL-16 being eliminated, Dold’s hint Kinzinger could jump into the U.S. Senate race in 2022 is a distinct possibility, especially all of the money Kinzinger has raised through the FEC can be transferred into a U.S. Senate campaign.
Since Kinzinger’s campaign has not filed its report with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the tote board is not updated, since expenses and cash-on-hand were not contained in the POLITICO story.
From the desk of John Lopez: While others think Kinzinger may run for governor next year if his IL-16 is eliminated, I firmly believe Kinzinger will run for U.S. Senate. While not covered in this morning’s POLITICO, Kinzinger’s campaign leaked its FEC receipts immediately after U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D) announced she had $5 million cash-on-hand and raised nearly $2.5 million in the 2nd quarter late last week. Kinzinger’s fundraising leak comes across as a response.
All FEC filings are due by Thursday, 11:59PM CDT, and thus far, none of Kinzinger’s Republican primary challengers have announced their fundraising.
With June 30 come and gone, it’s time for the 2nd Quarter report cards for campaign disclosure to be posted for review of candidates or prospective candidates performance for 2022.
For federal office, the campaign disclosure reports due to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will be due by July 15 for the Q2 reporting period.
Because McHenry County resident Catalina Lauf is running for the Republican nomination for the current IL-16 Congressional District plus incumbent Adam Kinzinger’s opposition to former President Trump, I’m paying particular attention to that race for now.
UPDATE (July 1, 2021): While the FEC filing deadline is July 15, candidates don’t have to wait until July 15 to file their quarterly FEC disclosure reports, known as a “Form 3”. Provided the filings are complete, candidates can file their quarterly prior to the deadline, and it will be made public the same day.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, campaigns can, and often do, report receipts before filing reports with the FEC. Usually, when a candidate meets, or exceeds expectations will a campaign issue a statement with partial information.
Earlier this year, Congressman Kinzinger issued his Q1 receipts in early April, and in October of 2019, Lauf issued a press release highlighting her first FEC receipts in her IL-14 bid.
My expectations for the IL-16 field with Q2 fundraising are later in this article.
Will any candidate do an early press release trumpeting how their Q2 fundraising fared remains to be seen. But if you have spectacular, exceeded expectations performance going into a long holiday weekend with political events around July 4th, you want to give people something to talk about, and successful fundraising gives political types something to talk about at the 4th of July parades and picnics.
For the first time, I’m tracking Democrat Marsha Williams’ FEC reporting, as well as Republicans Teresa Pfaff and Geno Young, who both filed FEC paperwork earlier this year.
While Dr. Leona di Amore announced her candidacy in March, to date, she has not filed any paperwork with the FEC, and unless she does so by Wednesday, she will have no entries for the Q2 reporting period.
But the primary nearly a year away, why track this?
Two years ago, McHenry County Blog began posting FEC quarterly performance for the IL-06 and IL-14. While no major Republican challengers have emerged in those two districts, and early credible drafts of the potential congressional remap show both those districts being redrawn out of McHenry County, focus right now is IL-16 per the reasons stated earlier.
But let’s remember what happened in July 2019 after Q2 2019 FEC reports were posted.
- IL-14: Two Republican candidates’ fundraising rated by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)
- IL-06: Former Lieutenant Governor Evelyn Sanguinetti rated by NRCC
The metrics were clear, Republican candidates had to raise a minimum of $100K to earn a rating from the NRCC. In the case of Sanguinetti, her relatively weak fundraising for a former statewide official was the first red flag her congressional campaign was in trouble.
Please recall, Sanguinetti raised $103,637.38 in Q2 2019, and a $5.6K loan to herself was what put her over $100K for the NRCC rating. Sanguinetti’s cash on hand at mid-year 2019 was under $70K.
Eventual IL-06 primary winner Jeanne Ives had not yet entered the race, which Ives joined in late July.
Sanguinetti withdrew from the IL-06 race in early October because her Q3 2019 numbers were terrible and confirmed when they were made public she raised just over $39K for Q3 2019, and with Ives in the race, Ives clearly had the fundraising edge, having raised over $340K in her first filing.
For IL-16, doubtful the NRCC will “rate” Republican primary challengers to a sitting Republican incumbent, but last week, I laid out some of the stakes for Q2 FEC filings, which I’ll expand on here.
- Adam Kinzinger: I fully expect the incumbent to raise at least $1 million for his reelection campaign in Q2, and possibly more
- Catalina Lauf: Showed she’s the only viable challenger to incumbent Kinzinger in Q1, raising $163K, and just under $87K away from reaching $250K receipts for the year, which will make her eligible for PAC and super PAC funding
- All other Republicans, using the $100K metric the NRCC uses for targeted Democrat-held seats, they must raise minimum $100K for Q2 to be seen as viable, and if Democrat Marsha Williams outraises them in a “Republican district”, they better consider dropping out of the race
Lately Jack Lombardi on Twitter and in comments here on McHenry County Blog has been claiming he should stand against Adam Kinzinger in the primary, let’s compare Lombardi’s fundraising to another unknown newcomer from 2 years ago who did prove he was a legitimate fundraiser, Ted Gradel in IL-14:
Gradel launched his campaign on April 23, 2019, and within a week, on morning of April 30, his campaign disclosed he raised $150K in the first week of his candidacy, which was confirmed on his Q2 2019 FEC filing in July of 2019.
Gradel went on to raise nearly $305K for the entire quarter, including a $30K loan to himself, and had just under $290K cash-on-hand at mid-year 2019 (though little over $64K of the cash-on-hand were from maxed-out donors and was not eligible to use for the primary).
Lombardi launched his IL-16 candidacy in early February, and on April 15, he was not required to file an FEC Q1 2021 report, because he had not raised and/or spent the $5K minimum to require a campaign disclosure filing.
Both men claimed to be self-made businessmen, both married with a wife and kids. Gradel, who was 54 when his campaign launched was a little older (nearly 10 years), but apart from that, these two men have similar backgrounds, but with different fundraising results.
Yes, apart from age, differences like Gradel had access to the Notre Dame alumni network for fundraising, but there are similarities, too, like both men engaged in some form of fight training, Gradel as an intramural boxer at Notre Dame, Lombardi as a martial arts fighter.
As I’ve said on both McHenry County Blog and on Twitter, I’m waiting for Lombardi to file his required Financial Disclosure (FD) statement with the U.S. House clerk to get a read on his business/finances, and while Gradel was late filing his FD in 2019 (which McHenry County Blog reported), his FD told the story, and we expect Lombardi’s to do the same when he files by his 90 day extension deadline on August 13.
So, I watch FEC and FD filings to determine which candidates for Congress are really viable, versus those who appear to not be viable and these findings are shared here on the blog.
McHenry County Blog will continue to cover this race fully.