IL-16 UPDATE x5: California Target Book Weighs-in on Kinzinger vs. Lauf Fundraising

Catalina Lauf
Adam Kinzinger

“[Lauf]…will have to spend 4 to 1 to match the populist Jack Lombardi comment 6/28/21

Update 7/15/21 3:20PM CDT: Congressman Adam Kinzinger’s numbers posted, and cash on hand now over $3 million:

California Target Book’s Rob Pyers, on Kinzinger’s and Lauf’s fundraising:

Update 7/15/21 2:15PM CDT: Catalina Lauf smashes through her goal of raising just under $87K for the 2nd Quarter, raising over $192K

As of 2PM CDT only Lauf and Lombardi had posted their FEC reports among IL-16 candidates.

Update 7/12/21: POLITICO Illinois Playbook reported this morning sources close to Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R, IL-16) said he raised $800K in the 2nd quarter, plus an additional $500K for his PAC. POLITICO also quoted former Congressman Bob Dold, with the quote above.

Given the latest unofficial versions of congressional remaps floating around show the current IL-16 being eliminated, Dold’s hint Kinzinger could jump into the U.S. Senate race in 2022 is a distinct possibility, especially all of the money Kinzinger has raised through the FEC can be transferred into a U.S. Senate campaign.

Since Kinzinger’s campaign has not filed its report with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the tote board is not updated, since expenses and cash-on-hand were not contained in the POLITICO story.

From the desk of John Lopez: While others think Kinzinger may run for governor next year if his IL-16 is eliminated, I firmly believe Kinzinger will run for U.S. Senate. While not covered in this morning’s POLITICO, Kinzinger’s campaign leaked its FEC receipts immediately after U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D) announced she had $5 million cash-on-hand and raised nearly $2.5 million in the 2nd quarter late last week. Kinzinger’s fundraising leak comes across as a response.

All FEC filings are due by Thursday, 11:59PM CDT, and thus far, none of Kinzinger’s Republican primary challengers have announced their fundraising.


With June 30 come and gone, it’s time for the 2nd Quarter report cards for campaign disclosure to be posted for review of candidates or prospective candidates performance for 2022.

For federal office, the campaign disclosure reports due to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will be due by July 15 for the Q2 reporting period.

Because McHenry County resident Catalina Lauf is running for the Republican nomination for the current IL-16 Congressional District plus incumbent Adam Kinzinger’s opposition to former President Trump, I’m paying particular attention to that race for now.

UPDATE (July 1, 2021): While the FEC filing deadline is July 15, candidates don’t have to wait until July 15 to file their quarterly FEC disclosure reports, known as a “Form 3”. Provided the filings are complete, candidates can file their quarterly prior to the deadline, and it will be made public the same day.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, campaigns can, and often do, report receipts before filing reports with the FEC. Usually, when a candidate meets, or exceeds expectations will a campaign issue a statement with partial information.

Earlier this year, Congressman Kinzinger issued his Q1 receipts in early April, and in October of 2019, Lauf issued a press release highlighting her first FEC receipts in her IL-14 bid.

My expectations for the IL-16 field with Q2 fundraising are later in this article.

Will any candidate do an early press release trumpeting how their Q2 fundraising fared remains to be seen. But if you have spectacular, exceeded expectations performance going into a long holiday weekend with political events around July 4th, you want to give people something to talk about, and successful fundraising gives political types something to talk about at the 4th of July parades and picnics.

For the first time, I’m tracking Democrat Marsha Williams’ FEC reporting, as well as Republicans Teresa Pfaff and Geno Young, who both filed FEC paperwork earlier this year.

While Dr. Leona di Amore announced her candidacy in March, to date, she has not filed any paperwork with the FEC, and unless she does so by Wednesday, she will have no entries for the Q2 reporting period.

But the primary nearly a year away, why track this?

Two years ago, McHenry County Blog began posting FEC quarterly performance for the IL-06 and IL-14. While no major Republican challengers have emerged in those two districts, and early credible drafts of the potential congressional remap show both those districts being redrawn out of McHenry County, focus right now is IL-16 per the reasons stated earlier.

But let’s remember what happened in July 2019 after Q2 2019 FEC reports were posted.

  • IL-14: Two Republican candidates’ fundraising rated by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)
  • IL-06: Former Lieutenant Governor Evelyn Sanguinetti rated by NRCC

The metrics were clear, Republican candidates had to raise a minimum of $100K to earn a rating from the NRCC. In the case of Sanguinetti, her relatively weak fundraising for a former statewide official was the first red flag her congressional campaign was in trouble.

Please recall, Sanguinetti raised $103,637.38 in Q2 2019, and a $5.6K loan to herself was what put her over $100K for the NRCC rating. Sanguinetti’s cash on hand at mid-year 2019 was under $70K.

Eventual IL-06 primary winner Jeanne Ives had not yet entered the race, which Ives joined in late July.

Sanguinetti withdrew from the IL-06 race in early October because her Q3 2019 numbers were terrible and confirmed when they were made public she raised just over $39K for Q3 2019, and with Ives in the race, Ives clearly had the fundraising edge, having raised over $340K in her first filing.

For IL-16, doubtful the NRCC will “rate” Republican primary challengers to a sitting Republican incumbent, but last week, I laid out some of the stakes for Q2 FEC filings, which I’ll expand on here.

  • Adam Kinzinger: I fully expect the incumbent to raise at least $1 million for his reelection campaign in Q2, and possibly more
  • Catalina Lauf: Showed she’s the only viable challenger to incumbent Kinzinger in Q1, raising $163K, and just under $87K away from reaching $250K receipts for the year, which will make her eligible for PAC and super PAC funding
  • All other Republicans, using the $100K metric the NRCC uses for targeted Democrat-held seats, they must raise minimum $100K for Q2 to be seen as viable, and if Democrat Marsha Williams outraises them in a “Republican district”, they better consider dropping out of the race
Ted Gradel

Lately Jack Lombardi on Twitter and in comments here on McHenry County Blog has been claiming he should stand against Adam Kinzinger in the primary, let’s compare Lombardi’s fundraising to another unknown newcomer from 2 years ago who did prove he was a legitimate fundraiser, Ted Gradel in IL-14:

Gradel launched his campaign on April 23, 2019, and within a week, on morning of April 30, his campaign disclosed he raised $150K in the first week of his candidacy, which was confirmed on his Q2 2019 FEC filing in July of 2019.

Gradel went on to raise nearly $305K for the entire quarter, including a $30K loan to himself, and had just under $290K cash-on-hand at mid-year 2019 (though little over $64K of the cash-on-hand were from maxed-out donors and was not eligible to use for the primary).

Jack Lombardi

Lombardi launched his IL-16 candidacy in early February, and on April 15, he was not required to file an FEC Q1 2021 report, because he had not raised and/or spent the $5K minimum to require a campaign disclosure filing.

Both men claimed to be self-made businessmen, both married with a wife and kids. Gradel, who was 54 when his campaign launched was a little older (nearly 10 years), but apart from that, these two men have similar backgrounds, but with different fundraising results.

Yes, apart from age, differences like Gradel had access to the Notre Dame alumni network for fundraising, but there are similarities, too, like both men engaged in some form of fight training, Gradel as an intramural boxer at Notre Dame, Lombardi as a martial arts fighter.

As I’ve said on both McHenry County Blog and on Twitter, I’m waiting for Lombardi to file his required Financial Disclosure (FD) statement with the U.S. House clerk to get a read on his business/finances, and while Gradel was late filing his FD in 2019 (which McHenry County Blog reported), his FD told the story, and we expect Lombardi’s to do the same when he files by his 90 day extension deadline on August 13.

So, I watch FEC and FD filings to determine which candidates for Congress are really viable, versus those who appear to not be viable and these findings are shared here on the blog.

McHenry County Blog will continue to cover this race fully.


IL-16 UPDATE x5: California Target Book Weighs-in on Kinzinger vs. Lauf Fundraising — 57 Comments

  1. I go with Marter.

    He’s real.


    Kinzinger NO!!!!!!!

  2. Excellent and well reasoned post.

    Gradel of course comes with ready made oppo due to his previous run. I wonder how much he can really raise this time?

    But your point about candidates with poor results dropping out early is very pertinent.

    If it had only been a three way in IL 14 last year we may have bid the nurse goodbye.

    The bar is higher for Lauf as well.

    With her record, she must prove she can build on it.

  3. Blogger John, your candidate will have to spend 4 to 1 to match the populist; not Lauf or Kinzinger is the popular candidate in this race.

    Blogger John, you really are not helping Catalina Lauf here.

  4. Oh my!

    I think Jack Lombardi took one too many kicks to the head his last workout at the dojo.

    Sounds like Lombardi setting low expectations for his FEC Q2 fundraising which we’ll all see by July 15.

    OK, I’ll go from his perspective, given a “populist” candidate in IL-14 primary last year and how Lauf did against him fundraising.

    James Marter is the closest I saw to a “populist” candidate from IL-14 last year.

    Catalina Lauf out raised Marter by over 5 to 1 margin last year, according to FEC reports.

    Marter is a candidate in IL-16 right now, and he has the more populist credentials than Lombardi, including a history in Republican politics, including twice elected county party chairman.

    If Lombardi thinks he’s cornered the “populist” candidate role in the current primary field, he’s in for a big surprise.

    I think Lombardi may be suffering from concussion, or delusions or both.

  5. Lauf should be shamelessly pandering to younger people if she’s a serious candidate.

    I’m talking especially the 25-45 crowd.

    She needs to appeal to the good old days.

    They remember life before Clown World and they have fond attachments to a simpler life.

    (Note: I’m not trying to exclude people older than that, just stating who she should *primarily* be appealing to.)

    Political bonds can be forged easily but broken even easier.

    KINSHIP is stickier…

    Once you establish that, your supporters are more than just voters who have a preference to your policies over Candidate B, but they are *fans* of yours and they are LOYAL to you!

    Then they’re not rooting for you as a candidate, but as a PERSON, as a FRIEND, as one of us.

    You’re just one of us…

    That’s why we want you in congress.

    If you are one of us, you will represent us!

    We trust you because you are one of us.

    Look at Underwood.

    What is her appeal?

    Is it REALLY that she’s a policy wonk or is it that she’s a thirty something non-ugly likable black woman who is cool and fashionable enough (think Lauren’s little green dress) to be liked in a white congressional district?

    I posit that the latter is actually a huge part of her success.

    She can fit in almost anywhere she goes.

    She seems more “regular” than maybe Roskam or Hultgren.

    Her wonkiness helps, but I don’t think it is the most important variable in her success.

    She’s young and hip and cool.

    That’s how she was billed.

    That’s not to discount policy knowledge!!!

    That is certainly a big factor and helps Underwood a lot, and that is something Lauf and probably all the Republicans running need to work on.

    All I’m saying is add 100 pounds to Underwood or give her an odd accent and she loses.

    Simple as that.

    There’s a ONE OF US factor in her success that is largely overlooked by the pundits and politicos.


    Yeah, well that’s basically your free advice.

    Team Lauf, if you are interested in winning, just get in contact with me!

    I done a little winning myself 😉

    Same goes to Lombardi or anybody.

    You pay me!

    You pay me money!

    I’m not going to tell you everything for free.

    My time is worth money.

    You pay me!

  6. Why is everything always about money?

    No wonder we’re where we are.

    Take Lester Holt & Co. And throw them out of a multistory window.

  7. Kinzinger has the establishment Republicans behind him . . .that would be Jim Edgar and his buddy’s, you know Edgar who counseled JB during his campaign for Governor, and to this day, from what I have heard.

    I am sure there is a push for Mike Pence in this group too, after all, Kinzinger’s wife worked with Pence before her timely marriage to Adam.

    They form a Cameo Picture for a future run for the White House !

    Check it out:

  8. Kingstinker, The look at me – look at me candidate destined to epic failure.

  9. Maybe John is right and Kinzinger runs for U.S. Senate.

    Kinzinger knows more about federal issues than state issues since he’s been in congress for a while.

    Kinzinger appears to enjoy being on the mainstream media’s news cycles, so running for federal office would give him more headlines than running for state office.

    The field for U.S. Senate looks (somehow, amazingly) even weaker than the field for Governor so it would be easier for him to win the primary.

    There would also be a lot of GOPers telling voters he’s the most “electable” person against Duckworth (even though nobody is going to defeat her).

    I agree with John that NRCC would not endorse any challenger against Kinzinger in a GOP primary for the House — that just doesn’t seem like something they would do as a matter of principle, plus Kinzinger can raise more money than anybody else.

    It will be interesting to see what happens if the rumors are true and nothing like the current 16th district (the one that bred winner posted) remains.

    What will happen to Lauf, Lombardi, Marter, and the rest?

    Lauf seems a lot less active on social media than she used to be which leads me to believe there will be a big shakeup, that this primary John keeps talking about is not going to happen, and that Lauf is spending time figuring out whether she wants to run in a different district, or for some other position altogether, or if she will take a different career path (like media).

    Another thing to keep an eye on is a possible endorsement from Trump.

    While it might be tempting to say Trump hasn’t endorsed anybody in this race because he is conflicted, I think it’s likelier he is just waiting since we don’t even know what the districts will look like.

    After the dust settles, we’ll see if he endorses people in any primaries for statewide offices, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate.

    Trump would be a kingmaker in a GOP primary with three or more candidates.

    The money targets in this article make sense.

    If these candidates can’t raise 100 k, they’re wasting their time and voters’ time.

    However, since John set a goal of 250 k for Lauf (higher expectations?), should she not reach those goals will John call on Lauf to exit the race the same as he would call on Marter or Lombardi to drop out if they don’t reach 100 k???

  10. **Map of KinZINGER District**

    You do know that the maps are changing, right?

  11. Correcting, Lauf’s $250K YTD goal (meaning just under $87K for Q2, given her Q1 receipts), is a threshold PACs, like Elise Stefanik’s PAC uses before openly endorsing, and funding candidates.

    Lauf won’t drop out if she doesn’t reach it in Q2, and she can rightfully point out media coverage of the elimination IL-16 could have hampered her fundraising.

    Kinzinger raised nearly $1.2 million in Q1 for his campaign, so he definitely had a Q2 that was less successful than Q1 by nearly $400K.

    If current IL-16 eliminated, we know Lauf cannot run for U.S. Senate, given her 30th birthday is 4 months, 2 days too late in 2023.

    Which leaves her to run for a different U.S. House district.

  12. Sure Snake. Wanted to see and show the area of the people who elected this goofball. He voted to impeach Trump last January.

  13. Snake why don’t you run on LGBTQ ticket with innocent Primate. Hide your tattoos tho, people might think you are a satanist.

  14. On tonight’s Tucker Carlson show on FOX Cable, Tucker said that KinZinger has a low IQ.

  15. Well if 5 people are running for Senate and 4 of them combined have a couple hundred thousand dollars, Kinzinger has a couple million dollars, and nobody can agree on who the anti-Kinzinger candidate should be, it’s not going to matter much what Tucker Carlson thinks of Adam Kinzinger’s IQ.

    Kinzinger will flatten you regardless of what you think about his IQ.

    (Joe Biden was called senile, probably rightfully so, and he’s the president now.)

    Then you’ll spend the better part of next year with MAGA people jeering Kinzinger and Kinzinger going on CNN to call them traitors.

    That won’t be very good for the party.

    At some point, anti-Kinzinger activists will have to come up with an actual strategy that makes sure he doesn’t win a primary, not just laughing at zingers and quips from Fox News hosts.

    From many years of observing Republicans in Illinois, I’m not sure THEY have the IQ, the organization, the cooperation, or the determination to pull that off. Kinzinger makes no bones about it: he WANTS to have a “civil war” within the GOP and he wants to bring it to everybody’s attention.

    That’s his explicit goal.

    It will be a DISASTER for the GOP if that guy wins a primary for a statewide office.

    The controversy around his candidacy will hound people running for congress, state legislature, perhaps local offices too.

    The easiest way to keep that from happening is to make sure he doesn’t run in the first place.

    Leaders from the state and national party need to have some private meetings with him.

  16. bred winner- A Trump appointed federal judge on dismissed a lawsuit against Fox News after lawyers for the network argued that no “reasonable viewer” would take the network’s primetime star Tucker Carlson seriously.

    Is it reasonable to believe a US Military Pilot has a low IQ?

  17. When’s Kinzinger gonna come out? He really should. A sham marriage is an affront to God.

  18. Correcting, you are very correct about Kinzinger and a statewide U.S. Senate primary run, given he’d be instant frontrunner and heavy favorite running for Senate in a primary.

    The current Senate candidates (Arview, Cruz, Hubbard & Salinas) are complete no names. Arview’s Q2 FEC has him raising less than $1K.

    And newly minted Senate candidate Bobby Piton, while he has some interesting points, still hasn’t filed FEC paperwork to form a federal committee.

    Kinzinger would have a cakewalk to U.S. Senate nomination, and he can wait-out the congressional remap, and raise money as the anti-Trumper before converting to U.S. Senate race.

    As for a Republican Party “civil war”, who are the sides? There are not only 2.

    More on that, later.

  19. There are certainly more than two factions in the GOP but the way Kinzinger is framing it and the way you’ll see it framed in the mainstream media, there will be two groups.

    They’ll keep it simple: Trump loyalists vs Republicans somewhat hostile to Trump.

    More than that would require some sort of brain activity which the news doesn’t want you to have.

    You just want to keep things simple, tribal, and easy to exploit the differences.

    Two is the best number for that.

    The media may, at some point, point out a “further right of Trump” faction who might be disavowed by Trump loyalists, but the media will only do that in order to laugh at Trump, portray it as wacky and chaotic, and they will inevitably explain it as those groups are the same anyway but the Trump people are just embarrasse

    Don’t expect any kind of serious discussion about political theory with nuance from Adam Kinzinger or the mainstream media.

    We have to keep things simple for idiots to understand and keep things as tribal as possible.


    For example, they’re not going to portray Lombardi and Lauf as being in different factions.

    They will both be labelled as Trump butt kissers.

    Marter too.

    They’ll contrast these candidates to Kinzinger, the candidate critical of Trump.

    That will be the depth of the analysis on mainstream media.

    When Lombardi attacks Lauf it’ll just be “ooooh this guy is trying to outcrazy Lauf on the Trump butt kissing!

    Who’s the bigger butt kisser?”

    You’re not going to get smart commentary.

    Twitter will be full of idiots, radio and tv will be full of idiots, even most of the websites including Politico will be full of idiots with simplistic takes.

    By the way, there are people who simplify the factions or don’t even acknowledge them on the other side too.

    I could probably divide the Democrats and left into a dozen groups who don’t like each other, but that would take a lot of time and a lot of effort and people on this blog wouldn’t be interested in reading about the major or subtle differences between different Marxist camps and between different congressional groups.

    No point in going through all that work especially if I’m not being paid.

  20. Correcting,

    What you described for most part has to do with a General Election campaign, not a primary.

    Given the late June primary making for a shorter General Election campaign next year, primary voters will be bombarded with the factionalizing among Republicans.

    There will be some among Democrats, particularly in secretary of state primary race, but mainly Republicans around here.

    If the current IL-16 were to stay intact and Adam Kinzinger sought a 7th term in the House, the factions would pretty much fall into place with some of current candidates:

    KINZINGER- non Trump Republican conservatism

    LAUF- traditional, Trump conservative running under the mainstream “America First” Policy Institute platform, championed by Scott Presler and Charlie Kirk, who will likely be openly backed by President Trump

    LOMBARDI- “populist”, alt-right extremist conservative “Groyper America First” platform championed by Congressman Paul Gosar and activist Nick Fuentes, and adoptive mother of the Groypers Michelle Malkin

    MARTER & others: more in line with Lauf vision of Trump’s traditional America First platform

    Since none of the candidates to date are committed QAnon followers, that faction will be split among the challengers to Kinzinger

    Right now, I still expect only Kinzinger and Lauf to be viable after Q2 FEC numbers released Thursday.

    We’ll see.

  21. John, it’s tempting to respond in detail to your last comment because I have several criticisms of it and questions about it, but I’m not sure I want to turn this into a big back and forth at the moment.

    FOR THE TIME BEING, I’ll practice some self-restraint and avoid all the factions and theory nerd-talk (especially since I have criticized you for writing about this congressional race too often) and ask you more fundamental questions.

    1. Do you think Lombardi and Lauf will even end up running against each other?

    2. If the answer is no, it might be better to not get into all these “sides” and trying to explain them. At the VERY LEAST, why not wait until the 2022 maps get approved?

    3. When are we getting new maps? Isn’t it going to be in the next two or three months?

    I can see why you’d report quarterly fundraising numbers, but the other stuff isn’t necessary. It’s fun. It’s interesting. I especially enjoy it. But it’s unnecessary and time wasting at best, and realistically it’s actually counterproductive/harmful.

  22. Correcting, I appreciate the restraint.

    The 2022 factionalizing of Republicans is going to consume Republican primary contests next year far beyond the current IL-16 race. We’ve both hinted the district will be eliminated given certain 3rd party maps published no one in IL denies.

    But some of the factionalizing must be addressed, given some of Jack Lombardi’s language he used in his comment on this article, and in social media, including his self-described “populist” candidacy, and his use of terms like “MAGA, Inc”.

    Additionally the Gabriella Hoffman interview of Catalina Lauf in early April began to scratch the surface, and I’ve learned much more researching in recent weeks.

    Definitely Groyper language, and Lombardi has even sported Pit Vipers sunglasses recently, which has become part of Nick Fuentes’ Groyper standards.

    I plan to write about Groypers separately, as well as QAnon to show my take how to discern them, but that comes later.

    Your questions:

    1) Lauf & Lombardi running against each other? Uncertain. Lombardi and his Groyper backers think Lauf is weak due to age and perceived lack of life experiences. That could mean he runs in same race Lauf runs if Kinzinger district eliminated. We’ll have to wait and see, and fundraising could play a part in decision.

    2) Agreed to wait for maps, though as mentioned earlier, the Republican factions, be it Kinzinger/non-Trump, traditional America First, Groyper America First and QAnon, will seep into other primary races like governor and state legislative races (Critical Race Theory), with each faction calling the other “RINO”. Let’s see how my upcoming articles on QAnon and Groyper discernment go.

    3) New congressional maps, depends on Census data detailed release, which can be released as late as September 30, but most expecting release by mid-August. I expect the Democrats, once the data is released, will set up their “map room” and draw the 17 congressional districts, likely using what we know was leaked through Dave Wasserman maps, all 4 versions, most recent dated June 1.

    I’m expecting Democrats to use the fall veto session to pass final congressional map, while fulfilling perfunctory requirements for public hearings in September through mid October.

  23. I was going to leave it alone but you had to bring it up. So since you want to talk about factions and ideology, I’ll discuss it too.


    Before I get into that I’ll just say something about this blog and your upcoming pieces. I don’t know exactly what you plan on writing, but I think I know the general direction you’re going to go so I have to get this off my chest: Aren’t you worried with all of these posts you plan on writing about Lauf, Lombardi, and Groypers that you’re setting yourself up to be accused of bias? You’ve seen the reactions from people before when you write about Lauf: it’s overwhelmingly negative. Even if they don’t hate Lauf, they’re uneasy by the fact that you seem to be cheerleading for her. There are a lot of readers of this blog who don’t want the blog to take an activist role in promoting candidates during the primary and that feeling becomes intensified if the primary isn’t a one on one between candidates who are very different but a crowded field with candidates who may mostly agree. You might want to consider setting up a separate blog or labeling certain pieces opinion pieces. Some of your writing during the 2020 cycle caused a lot of drama on this blog and we had people saying they were going to stop reading it. Ok now that that’s out of the way I’ll get into the other stuff about factions and ideology.


    First, some questions based off your categorization of the groups within the GOP with a little bit of commentary.

    -What about Lombardi’s “America First” is over the line or controversial compared to Lauf’s “mainstream America First”? How do you differentiate them and what makes one fine and the other bad?

    -If one is a Trump supporter, what is so repugnant about Paul Gosar, a strong defender of Trump and one of his strongest supporters on January 6th? What is repugnant about Michelle Malkin who, like Fuentes, has been out in front on many issues like immigration, tech censorship, and CRT? Some of these Republicans were laughed at, and when they were censored or kicked out of conventions the last few years, other Republicans cheered and defended them being removed, but now all of a sudden you hear mainstream Republicans parroting the themes and talking points of the people (on their side) who they were demonizing not long ago (or perhaps still demonize). I’d include Alex Jones in that category too. To me, this shows a complete inability by the normal talking heads of Con Inc to identify threats until it’s too late, it shows that Republicans like to eat their own to virtue signal to the mainstream media and the left, it shows that they gatekeep, and it shows that the ordinary Republican talking heads are grifters who don’t pick up on things until they reach critical mass and are profitable or acceptable enough to talk about, but they never really blaze the trail.

    -Why do you think Lombardi is “alt-right”? That term has a very specific definition and from what I’ve seen, Lombardi seems like a Civ Nat, not a Wig Nat. He seems more Alt Lite than Alt Right. Just because he may be more of a right-wing populist than Lauf doesn’t mean he is a fascist, it could just mean she is a liberal or she doesn’t have well defined views. For example, if someone is further left than a centrist, it doesn’t mean they are far left. It’s relative. One could make the case Lombardi is too far right to win, but that doesn’t automatically make him Alt Right which like I said has a very specific definition.

    -Since when did Scott Pressler and Charlie Kirk become the heirs to Trumpism? I didn’t even know who Pressler was until like 8 months ago but I knew who Nick Fuentes was probably going back to 2015 and certainly 2016 (I remember when he used to do podcasts with James Allsup). Charlie Kirk himself was moved closer to Trump’s positions after the so-called Groyper Wars when Fuentes’s supporters challenged Kirk at TPUSA’s college tours. Kirk has more populist stances now when he used to have more Libertarian stances, and if I’m not mistaken Kirk was kind of a late boarder on the Trump Train.

    -What even is a “Trump conservative” and is not its main difference with Kinzinger’s “non Trump Republican conservatism” the fact that it is more populist? Removing the issue of the cult of personality surrounding Trump, the main difference I see is that a “Trump conservative” is more populist and nationalist. I don’t see how you get to make right-wing populism seem spooky when “Trump conservatism” was a rejection of Kinzinger’s style of “Republican conservatism” that had dominated the party going back at least to W and possibly all the way back to Reagan. Trump conservatism IS a more populist form of conservatism so I’m confused by your categorization where you seem to be labeling populism bad but also acknowledge Trump’s politics are different than Republicans like Kinzinger.

    -MAGA Inc is similar to Con Inc. It’s just implying the grift has shifted to seem a little more Trump-y. I think it IS something that Trump supporters should keep an eye on. JD Vance is arguably MAGA Inc and I know you’ve been critical of him for being a phony. It’s the same concept.

    Maybe thinking about these things will help you in your article. I’m more curious about what you’ll have to say about Q Anon than the Groypers, who I think will fade into irrelevancy now that Fuentes has been removed from Twitter. Plus, I don’t see Q Anon as having a strict ideology like Groypers. It’s a pretty loose movement and I don’t even know what they’d look for in a politician. I could probably think of a few issues they’d agree on, but it’s hard to picture them settling on a candidate in a crowded primary. I think Q Anon is probably a more diverse group, in appearance and in beliefs, than Groypers.

    Just a few more things and I’ll be done with this rant.


    If you want to say Nick Fuentes and people associated with him are bad optics or toxic and will cost votes, that is perfectly fine to say. It’s a strategic calculation. It’s about you don’t want to lose votes because people think you’re a nut job. I get that. However, when you start casually using terms that most people aren’t familiar with, you will be asked to clarify.

    Try to keep in mind that whatever criticisms the Groypers have of Lauf, these issues were brought up when she ran last time and they were brought up by optical and respectable people, not just autists or gamers or 4channers. This stuff is hardly new or unique to Fuentes and his movement, and a lot of the concerns and criticisms about Lauf are legit.

    I really don’t think this theory track is one that you or Lauf supporters should want to travel on. Otherwise you’re going to be arguing with people who spend most of their day playing Fortnite, reading PDFs of political manifestos, only taking breaks to pee in bottles and eat Hot Pockets. That’s not even an exaggeration. I’ll conclude this with some advice to Lauf’s surrogates, even though I don’t think articles on this blog should be rooting for a candidate in the primary especially in a crowded field.


    To Lauf’s surrogates, in terms of messaging: The goal shouldn’t be to paint Lombardi as some kind of phony or fake America First person, because I think this is a battle you will lose, but to demonstrate that Lauf is in line with Donald Trump’s agenda since it seems to me you are going for a larger numerical base of Trump supporters, not necessarily trying to be the most conservative or the most populist or the most extreme along any axis. Arguably, Donald Trump was a lot more flexible and pragmatic than people on either side cared to admit. As far as attacks, I don’t know… You could probably still ignore Lombardi for now and focus on building up Lauf, who many people, even non-Groypers, view suspiciously. You don’t know if Lauf will even be running against him and I suspect she won’t be. You haven’t seen Lombardi’s fundraising yet. If the numbers are really bad you could ignore him.

    If you want to criticize him, there are probably a few paths to go. He’s immature. He associates with toxic people and could cost Republicans a seat. He thinks politics is important yet he didn’t get involved until the 2022 election. He’s really not being too specific himself in terms of policy even though he criticizes Lauf of that. Lauf worked for the Trump administration but Trump probably has no idea who Lombardi is.

    But like I said, it might not even be necessary. We underestimate how uninformed the average voter is. Lauf still has work to do in terms of mobilizing anti-Kinzinger or pro-Trump support. You take it for granted and assume EVERYBODY knows Kinzinger hates Trump. You’d be surprised. Look at how many Republicans heard Jeanne Ives was a Madigan plant and voted for Rauner. Things that you talk about every day are things voters have never even heard about. Many people don’t do any research before voting. They go in to the booth practically blind, voting for… I don’t know, I guess maybe what names they recognize or dislike the least based on spelling?

    You don’t have to have John doing attack pieces on Lombardi. If anything, I think that will make people more suspicious of Lauf, contribute to the idea that the media is colluding in her favor and she is part of some grift club, and may draw people to Lombardi.

    Sorry that didn’t wrap up neatly but that’s all I got to say about that for now!

    The funny thing is how much time we waste analyzing a primary that isn’t even going to happen. That’s what I think. There won’t be a Lombardi/Lauf/Kinzinger primary because of the maps.

    This is all just meaningless mental masturbation that will be read by like 15 people hahahahahahahaha

  24. Correcting,

    Good to hear and it’s on the record. Will be hitting QAnon first, since the media just a week ago opened up the new salvo that people against CRT are QAnon without the name of QAnon, including the “run for school board, and other local offices” line NBC News featured.

    Hopefully, my main computer won’t crap out again, but QAnon, as you said is so loose, many a casual reader, let alone an aspiring candidate, may not know something is QAnon, especially with a lack of “WWG1WGA” labels.

    Also, you may have seen on Twitter, someone tried the strategy of pinning the QAnon label on Lombardi, solely off of NBC report of QAnon and CRT. It didn’t stick, and in spite of Lombardi’s many faults of his own making, QAnon is not one of them.

    But, doesn’t stop people from trying the new false narrative on him, and it will be tried on others, and outside of candidates in IL-16.

  25. All of the Forever Trump candidates are going to cancel each other out and Kinzinger will cruise to victory funded by the Lincoln Project and others in the anti Trump camp.

    It’s a Winner Take All election folks!

  26. Excellent post, but could you please NOT update it?

    It’s really hard to follow the new stuff when it’s added.

    Maybe a quick summary of the old, then the new info?

  27. ** raised $193K in Q2, spent $152.3K **

    Holy burn rate Batman!

  28. Lauf seriously needs to cut back on the consultants. That burn rate is not sustainable.

    I looked at Lombardi’s filing. he gave himself 10K, 25% of his receipts.

    He also spent 10K on himself.


    Rest was consultants and 1500 on a campaign video.

    Neither he nor Marter are serious candidates.

  29. ** IL-16 UPDATE x4: Adam Kinzinger Has Over $3 Million Cash, Catalina Lauf Raises Nearly $193K**

    Also, this headline is an amusing apples to oranges comparison.

  30. Kinzinger is a true Democrat.

    Lauf is immature, entitled, and has not real life experience to warrant her bid for election.

    The Congressional role is way above her ability to be proactive in that role.

    Though, Lauf presents well she is not capable.

    Don’t judge a book by it’s cover.

    Marter is the right candidate for the job!

  31. AlabamaShake is an amusing failure as a Political consultant for the Democrats.


  32. Deep thoughts from DALA. Totally irrelevant to the conversation, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  33. lol these STUPID DEMOCRATS and “educators” actually doubled down from saying being against CRT makes you a Republican, to saying it makes you a racist, to saying it makes you a Q Anon wacko hahahahaha these people are really something.

    They are SOOOOOO scared hahahaha

    I agree with Pat C. When something new happens, it might be better to make a whole new post as opposed to an update.

    Where are Marter’s numbers?

    Was he unable to even raise 5 k? Wow.

    Lombardi’s numbers are weak.

    John Lopez said 100 k to be a serious candidate, I was looking to see whether Lombardi could hit 50 k.

    He couldn’t even do that.

    Now with Fuentes banned off Twitter it’s going to be even more difficult to have a nucleus of support for Lombardi.

    I suppose Malkin and some others could help, but it’s not looking good for him.

    Pat is also right about burn rate.

    Lombardi and Lauf are spending about 3/4 of what they raise and Kinzinger is spending like 1/4.

    Plus his numbers are much higher.

    That’s another thing that stands out to me.

    The scale.

    You see all these candidates with nothing, then you see Lombardi dwarfing them, then Lauf dwarfing him, than Kinzinger dwarfing her, and then you realize if Kinzinger were to run for Senate he would be greatly outraised and outspent by Duckworth.

    It’s crazy!

    Looks like Lauf met Lombardi’s challenge of spending at least 4 times more than him!


    Good for Kinzinger, I guess.

    Not a fan, but those numbers are nuts.

    Lauf’s numbers are strong .

    If it were her vs Kinzinger in a two way race, I think she might be able to pull it off.

    Of course, like I’ve said on multiple occasions, I don’t believe they will be in the same district, I don’t think anything like the current 16th district will remain, I think Kinzinger’s home address will get drawn into a Democratic district, I don’t think Kinzinger will run for House at all so all this talk about Lauf moving is irrelevant, and I’m not sure what will become of Lauf.

    If her district is too Democratic, I bet she won’t run.

    I’m sure Democrats are looking at that closely.

    Who knows what they’ll do.

    They want to abandon McHenry County for Underwood but then where do they put McHenry County?

    With Brad Schneider or something?

    idk about that…

    This whole situation is very weird.

    There’s also been talk about whether Lombardi would run against Lauf in a primary.

    He claims some McHenry County Republicans have asked him to do that.

    I don’t know if he can afford to move out here, and if he can’t it would be pretty dumb of him to run in a district he doesn’t live in.

    Very weird times and circumstances!

    2022 is going be so interesting with all these new maps at the federal, state, and local level; primaries with wacky characters; and all the statewide constitutional offices up for election plus a U.S. Senate seat.

    What an exciting time to be alive!

  34. Lauf seems like a likeable person. What is her resume’?
    With her youth, she is a natural to draw young voters. What can she do to sway middle age and senior voters?

  35. Lauf is likable but too immature for the job. Her youth and lack of experience are liabilities. Further, she is entitled and hasn’t done the ground work. Clearly, not the right candidate.

  36. Heard some jibber-jabber about putting Catalina Lauf in BRAD SCHNEIDER’s district.

    Well old boy “BRIBE SCHNEIDER” (that’s what we call him) is back in the news again! He had a naughty staffer.

    “Patrice — you are going to have to get a rope and put it around your neck!”
    “You should have seen your face when I told that story!”

    And the woman’s name is… Karyn!

    REALITY is just a meme at this point.

  37. All,

    James Marter’s numbers came out late on Thursday, and while he still trails the other 3, his numbers are much better than they were for Q1.

    He raised $12.7K for Q2, with a $411 loan from himself, he spent $7,609 and has COH of $7,453, with a burn rate of 60% for Q2.

    Lombardi’s burn rate was 72%, and factoring out the in-kind spending and receipts that equaled $15.8K total, he actually only raised little over $25K from donors in cash.

    Doesn’t change his COH, but subtract $15.8K from the numbers posted to the FEC to get his true receipts and expenses in cash.

    Per the feedback, will post the wrap up on Q221 fundraising for IL-16 in separate article that will post tomorrow, in event any of the other candidates post any numbers after tonight’s 11:59PM CDT deadline.

    I’m also going to calculate quarterly “burn rate” for all the candidates reporting numbers.

    Around the country, particularly the state of North Carolina, the burn rates are extremely high, both Republicans and Democrats.

    For example, Congressman Madison Cawthorn’s burn rate in Q2 is well over 100%.

    Also, AOC’s burn rate for Q2 is 73%, which is not as big a deal when she has over $5 million in the bank.

    As for Lauf, while her burn rate and all the consultants are concerns, her positives outweigh the negatives for Q2 and YTD 2021.

    She easily surpassed raising at least $250K for the year, and has exceeded all she raised for her 2020 IL-14 race through 6/30/21.

    More in tomorrow’s article.

  38. Correcting, think it’s time we look at the latest Dave Wasserman map to see where IL GA may go with congressional remap.

    That’ll be in an upcoming article, too.

    Latest version of map from Wasserman is June 1 update.

  39. Thanks for the update on Marter.

    His numbers are still significantly lower than Lombardi’s and Lombardi is a total newcomer whereas Marter has ran for office many times.

    You said Marter raised about 13 k while Lombardi raised like 41 k.

    COH Marter has over 7 k and Lombardi has closer to 12 k.

    Both of them posted weaker numbers than expected; Lauf and Kinzinger posted much higher numbers than expected (at least for me, I don’t know what their internal goals were).

    Hey, if you do a final summary of q2 would you give us Underwood and Casten’s numbers too including their burn rates?

    Please and thanks!

    If you get really ambitious, do numbers for Raja, Schneider, and Schakowski since there are rumors their districts might stretch into McHenry County.

  40. Will do all I can in follow-up though it may be in separate articles.

    About Krishnamoorthi, his cash on hand after Q221 crossed the $10 million mark, in his 3rd term. He’s clearly preparing for a Senate run, likely in 2026 when Durbin expected to call it career.

    Others will have to find, but won’t take long, including burn rates.

    Kinzinger’s $3 million cash on hand among Republicans is actually surpassed by Darin LaHood, who reported $3.6 million in-the-bank.

    There’s been rumor LaHood may have U.S. Senate ambitions for next year, and given Duckworth has just under $5 million in the bank, one of those 2 might see the opportunity though Kinzinger known better statewide.

    We’ll see.

  41. Krishnamoothri says Christianity is ‘nothing more than a collection of fables’ but he come from a culture and attends temple of a religion of 500 creepy gods, some with 8 arms, which allow cows to clog highways, frowns on the eating of eggs and declines to eradicate disease-bearing rats and insects.

    He’s a cultural Marxists who hates Whites, yet he shuns his own countrymen who are darker than his Brahman butt.

    A Hindu Hypocrite.

  42. Krishna bragged on his FB blog before he became a politico about all the white girls he defiled in college. This came briefly during his first run. He targeted them because of his ‘anticolonialist bent.”

  43. People like Kinzinger and Cheney will have a huge fundraising advantage over the horde of Trump bootlickers who will all be competing for the same money.

    The establishment GOP wants to bury Trump and they are the ones with the most money.

    That and there will undoubtedly be disguised Democrat money going to those two races in particular.

    The redrawing of the districts doeosn’t matter so much for Congressional races since there is no requirement of residency in the district.

    Remember when Katherine Lee ran in the 16th District even though she lived just outside of it?

    You just have to be a “citizen” of the state. So Adam can pick his spot.

    Have the leaked prospective new Congressional maps been published here yet?

  44. Because Science, the latest version (June 1) of the leaked unofficial map has not been published on blog, yet.

    That will be remedied over the weekend.

  45. I hate Krishnamourthi-morbid.

    His sad little life will only be remembered as a pathetic footnote of alien overrunning of Amerika.

    Before the Big Storm

  46. Marter is a true patriot but is more useful in local politics.

    Lombardi is talking a great game.

    (his pictures are terrible)

    He’s a hard worker and has real life experience!

  47. “Big Storm” “CWII”…you weak anonymous racists lost that war long ago, and you’ve lost every battle since.

    You are dying out slowly, making a little noise as you pop up with your ugliness from time to time, and you try to defend dead ideas from the past.

    Bigotry isn’t gone, but it is slowly dying out generation by generation.

    No, there is no Big Storm.

    You lost January 6, your disorganized terror cells failed in Chicago and Denver.

    The Proud Brats and Boogaloo goobers and the rest are ineffective.

    The General Milleys and the majority of people who love country, Constitution, and actual freedom have prevailed since 1865 and will continue to do so.

  48. Martin said:

    “The General Milleys and the majority of people who love country, Constitution, and actual freedom have prevailed since 1865 and will continue to do so.”

    General Milley said the following to the House Armed Services Committee in June 2021:

    “I want to understand white rage, and I’m white. What is it that caused thousands of people to assault this building and try to overturn the Constitution of the United States of America? What is wrong with having some situational understanding about the country we are here to defend?”

    That was mostly a riot at the Capitol. What does color of skin have to do with the riot?

    Milley used the term “white rage” but never defined it.

    Not sure that Milley is the best person the US Military has to be Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    Insofar as the future of our Nation, does not look positive when a president and his Administration violate a number of federal laws regarding aliens and encourage, allow and condone the invasion of our country. Also, recently, persons of the Administration are trying to quash free speech.

  49. Nick Fuentes is the Man. Lopez, it’s time to get out of your pupae.

  50. Gen. Mileys was selected for his post bc he’s a yes man and wuss. Just like Peter Oace, the National Disgrace.

    Ever wonder why America hasn’t won a war in 80 years ( I don’t call Panama and Grenada wars)!?

    Look at Gen Milley for the answer!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *